Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.
My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.
In 2022, Dan Trachtenberg took over the Predator franchise after invigorating the Cloverfield series with 10 Cloverfield Lane. The result was the acclaimed Hulu prequel Prey. This November, futuristic follow-up Predator: Badlands will touch down in theaters. In the meantime, Trachtenberg has helmed the R-rated animated Predator: Killer of Killers which is available for your streaming pleasure via Hulu and Disney+ this weekend.
Prey was a pleasantly bloody surprise to most critics and Killers can proclaim the same. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 98% with Metacritic at 78 with reviewers praising the anthology tale. Is it enough that the Academy would consider this for a Best Animated Feature slot? If so, it would mark the franchise’s second nom after the 1987 original was up for Visual Effects and lost to Innerspace.
Even with the high marks, I just don’t see this contending at the moment. Let’s see how the competition shakes out for the rest of the year though. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Inspired by a children’s book from Charles Dickens released some 60 plus years following his death, Angel Studios has the faith-based animated offering The King of Kings in multiplexes this weekend. Seong-ho Jang directs the bio of Jesus Christ with Oscar Isaac voicing him. Kenneth Branagh is Dickens with Uma Thurman, Mark Hamill, Pierce Brosnan, Roman Griffin Davis, Forest Whitaker, and Ben Kingsley also providing behind the mic contributions.
Early box office indicators show this might perform well in the pre-Easter frame. Reviews are so-so with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 48 Metacritic. It likely doesn’t have a prayer for a nomination in Best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards and precursor ceremonies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (04/07): Deadline reports that Kings is already seeing nearly $8 million in pre-sales four days before its debut. Angel Studios is employing a marketing strategy which includes kids receiving a free ticket to screenings with the family. This is causing me to raise my projection from $11.4 million to a sizzling $21.4 million.
Angel Studios, which had an unexpectedly massive hit with Sound of Freedom in 2023, has witnessed mixed returns for subsequent releases. The faith-based outlet goes the animation route on April 11th via The King of Kings. Based on a children’s book, it involves Charles Dickens (voiced by Kenneth Branagh) narrating the life of Jesus (Oscar Isaac). Other performers behind the mic include Uma Thurman, Mark Hamill, Roman Griffin Davis, Forest Whitaker, and Ben Kingsley.
Will Christians and kiddos turn out? Timed for a pre-Easter premiere, it does have direct competition from The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3, the popular show which will broadcast the final 3 episodes for season 5. There’s also the sophomore frame for A Minecraft Movie which caters to family crowds.
Like the other new releases next weekend, I think this will hover around $10 million. I’ll project it gets a little over that and it might have a heavenly hold over the holiday in its second go-round.
The King of Kings opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
Warner Bros brings some of their classic animated characters to the silver screen on March 14th when The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opens. Marking the directorial debut of Pete Browngardt, the sci-fi comedic adventures features the voices of Eric Bauza as Daffy Duck and Porky Pig), Candi Milo, Peter MacNicol, Fred Tatasciore, Laraine Newman, and Wayne Knight.
Earth actually received a limited Los Angeles run in December to qualify for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars (it did not receive a nomination). The studio hasn’t done much work promoting its release. Despite solid word-of-mouth from the West Coast screenings, WB seems to be dumping this. I think anything over $5 million would be a surprise and lower single digits may be all, folks.
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man should rule the upcoming box office frame with a decent family audience showing. Based on Dav Pilkey’s graphic novel and a spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Peter Hastings directs and voices the title character. Further behind the mic contributions come from Pete Davidson, Lil Rel Howery, Isla Fisher, Poppy Liu, Billy Boyd, and Ricky Gervais.
Reviews are mixed and even the positive notices are far from raves. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 70% with Metacritic at 60. While DreamWorks may have been the first studio to win Animated Feature at the Academy Awards via 2001’s Shrek, the bulk of their library has missed the cut. That should be the case with Dog Man. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to top the charts when it debuts January 31st. A spin-off of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Peter Hastings directs and provides the voice of the title canine. The adaptation of Dav Pilkey’s graphic novel features behind the mic work from Pete Davidson, Lil Rel Howery, Isla Fisher, Poppy Liu, Stephen Root, Billy Boyd, and Ricky Gervais.
In the summer of 2017, Underpants dropped with a $23.9 million premiere. That turned out to be a front loaded opening as it ended up with $73.9 million domestically. That could be right around where Dog sits and that should be enough for a first place showing.
Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.
As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.
Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:
1. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (January 10-12)
Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.
Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.
Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.
Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.
2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.
While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.
The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million
6. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (December 27-29)
In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.
Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.
Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.
Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.
The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.
Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.
Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.
In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.
Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.
Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.
Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.
After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.
I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.
And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $77.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $51.3 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Kraven the Hunter
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
6. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (December 13-15)
November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.
Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.
Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.
Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.
Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.
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