Tag: Animated Movies

Oscar Predictions: Migration

Migration is the latest animated offering from Illumination and it arrives in theaters this Friday. The comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.

With its review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is a fair though far from overwhelming 71%. This is Illumination’s 14th big screen effort that began with Despicable Me back in 2010. While the studio’s product usually succeeds in being a box office winner, only Despicable Me 2 in 2013 managed a Best Animated Feature Oscar at the Oscars.

Don’t look for Migration to be the second. Precursors like Critics Choice and the Globes have already ignored it. Illumination does have another 2023 contender in the financial behemoth The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The chances are stronger (if still unlikely) that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Migration Box Office Prediction

Universal and Illumination Entertainment hope families flock to Migration when it debuts over the long holiday weekend on December 22nd. The animated comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.

This studio knows how to put out blockbusters with the Despicable Me and Minions franchises. They had one of the biggest hits of the year with The Super Mario Bros. Movie. During Christmastime at multiplexes, films geared toward kids can start out a little slower than they normally would. However, they tend to leg out impressively over the weekends to come.

That might be the case with Migration. A high teens or lows 20s start sounds about right.

Migration opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million

Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki (of My Neighbor Totoro, Spirited Away, and Howl’s Moving Castle acclaim) came out of retirement to make The Boy and the Heron. It flies into North American venues on December 8th after robust business overseas. Unsurprisingly, critics are lauding it (97% RT score) as it might battle Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse at the Oscars. The fantasy arrives with a dubbed version for stateside crowds featuring the voices of Christian Bale, Dave Bautista, Gemma Chan, Willem Dafoe, Karen Fukuhara, Mark Hamill, Robert Pattinson, and Florence Pugh.

After debuting in Japan over the summer and expanding to other nations, it has made $83 million thus far. GKIDS is handling North American distribution and it is said to have the widest release in the studio’s history. That said, I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection.

Miyazaki is a bigger draw elsewhere, but he certainly has his ardent fans here. Again, depending on the count, I can’t see this getting below $3 million. Earning over $5 million could be a chore.

The Boy and the Heron opening weekend prediction: $8 million

Wish Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.

Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.

The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.

On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.

My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.

Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Napoleon prediction, click here:

Napoleon Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Trolls Band Together

Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.

Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.

The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.

Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

The computer animated creatures that first hit the screen seven years ago are back again in Trolls Band Together on November 17th. The DreamWorks musical comedy comes from Walt Dohrn, who co-directed the 2016 original and solely helmed the 2020 sequel. Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Icona Pop, Anderson Paak, Ron Funches, Kenan Thompson, and Kunal Nayyar reprise their vocal roles. They are joined by Eric André, Kid Cudi, Daveed Diggs, Camila Cabello, Amy Schumer, and RuPaul.

Featuring tracks from Kendrick and Cabello and the first NSYNC track in over two decades, Together hopes to bring in a large crowd. The first Trolls opened to a better than expected $46 million with an eventual $153 million domestic haul. Yet any clues for sequel demand were made complicated by follow-up Trolls World Tour. It went the VOD route due to coming out in April 2020 as movie theaters were shuttered by the COVID pandemic. There are estimates that it took in around $150 million in rentals.

Where does that leave our third song and dance fest? I certainly think this won’t match the mid 40s debut from 2016. This seems likely to start slower though it could have a healthy hold in its second frame over the long Thanksgiving weekend.

I’ll say mid to high 20s to possibly low 30s is where this Band begins as it hopes for pleasing encores over the holidays.

Trolls Band Together opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million

For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

For my Next Goal Wins prediction, click here:

Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Nimona

For this year’s Animated Feature race at the Oscars, it appears there are three spots already spoken for. That would be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the frontrunner), Elemental, and The Boy and the Heron. We await Disney’s Wish and it’s a strong possibility it makes the dance unless it majorly underwhelms with critics and crowds.

That could leave just one slot left for the five spot and there’s hopefuls. They include the sequel Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and reboot Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. There’s the Polish historical drama The Peasants.

And we have Nimona from Nick Bruno and Troy Quane. The Netflix comedic adventure premiered on Netflix over the summer to solid reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes). Featuring the voices of Chloë Grace Moretz and Riz Ahmed, I’ve had it ranked #5 in a few of my posts (including the most recent update from last weekend). Bruno and Quane are the team behind 2019’s Spies in Disguise. It did not make the quintet in Animated Feature (it probably narrowly missed). Nimona‘s inclusion may come down to whether Netflix throws their campaign attention behind it or Nugget. Don’t be surprised if it’s this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Arriving over 23 years after its predecessor, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget hatches on Netflix this December. Critics got their first look at it this weekend during the London Film Festival. Sam Fell directs with a voice cast including Thandiwe Newton, Zachary Levi (taking over from Mel Gibson), Bella Ramsey, Romesh Ranganathan, Jane Horrocks, Imelda Staunton, and Miranda Richardson.

In 2000, the original Chicken Run was a critical and commercial success with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. It arrived one year before the Academy established their Best Animated Feature race. Had it existed, it’s a safe bet that it would’ve been nominated.

Nugget is more of a question mark. Reviews are not as effusive (it’s at 83% on RT). I would put it behind two other sequels as far as its chances go behind frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. With other hopefuls like Elemental, Wish, and Nimona (among others) in the mix, there may not be enough room in the quintet for this long in the works follow-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie arrives in theaters tomorrow and it’s the second animated feature based on the popular Nickelodeon series. Cal Brunker returns to direct with voice cast actors including Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Kim Kardashian, James Marsden, and Kristen Bell.

Initial reviews are encouraging with an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That score may go down, but it’s currently higher than the 80% earned by its 2021 predecessor. However, I don’t really see this contending for Best Animated Feature. The first PAW didn’t and there’s other sequels or reboots that could stand a better shot. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, for example, boasts a 96% RT meter. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget has yet to drop and it could emerge as a hopeful. With Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, and Elemental probably already in and Wish on deck, don’t count on these dogs to make it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Box Office Prediction

Paramount is hoping the kiddos are eager for a second cinematic helping of canine comedy as PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie hits theaters on September 29th. The animated sequel, based on a Canadian TV series that made its way stateside via Nickelodeon, has Cal Brunker returning to direct. The voice cast includes Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian and her children North West and Saint West, James Marsden, Kristin Bell, and Finn Lee-Epp.

PAW Patrol: The Movie arrived in theaters in August of 2021 during COVID challenges. It opened to a so-so $13 million and ended up taking in $40 million domestically. Without the barriers that its predecessor faced, this may end up earning about the same amount out of the gate and maybe a little more. Not mighty, but not a box office dog either.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my The Creator prediction, click here:

The Creator Box Office Prediction

For my Saw X prediction, click here:

Saw X Box Office Prediction

For my Dumb Money prediction, click here:

Dumb Money Box Office Prediction