As I continue to catch up on Cannes titles that screened days ago, Latvian animator Gints Zilbalodis is receiving acclaim for his full-length feature debut Flow. The tale of a feline who escapes a flood and must adapt to a new environment, this is the filmmaker’s follow-up to his praised short film Away.
Reviews are strong for Flow with a 100% RT rating. It might be all about the distribution deal for this one. If a streamer or studio with campaigning talents pick it up, this could be catnip for Academy voters in the Animated Feature competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (05/30): Since it is only playing on just over 1000 screens, I am lowering my prediction from $6.5M to $3.9M
Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll hope fans of Japan’s manga TV series dive into Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle when it debuts this weekend. The animated sports tale stems from a show that ran from 2012 to 2020. Susumu Mitsunaka directs a voice cast that includes Ayumu Murase, Kaito Ishikawa, Yuki Kaji, and Yuichi Nakamura.
The distributor gets the most bang for its buck overseas as Battle is already the second highest grosser in Japan for 2024. Obviously stateside grosses will be considerably smaller. Crunchyroll’s titles have seen diminishing domestic unveilings as of late. It is also worth noting that they usually generate about 70% of their business in the first weekend.
In February of this year, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training did bring in $11.5 million and that was just over 2023 predecessor To the Swordsmith Village at $10.1 million. Outside of that franchise, One Piece Film: Red premiered with $9.3 million in November ’23 while Spy x Family Code: White stalled with $4.8 million just last month.
I’ll give Haikyu!! a mid to higher single digits opening.
Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
Our nation’s most famous lasagna adoring orange cat hits theaters this Memorial Day weekend with The Garfield Movie. A year after (somewhat controversially) providing the voice of Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chris Pratt does the same for this title character. Other notable thespians lending their talents are Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Giuillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg. Mark Dindal directs.
Even the fresher reviews for Garfield mostly call it nothing more than a pleasant diversion. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at a meager 55%. Mario didn’t manage any attention in the Animated Feature race and Pratt’s latest contribution to animation won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jared and Jerusha Hess, the married couple behind irreverent comedies Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, bring their sensibilities to the animated comedic musical Thelma the Unicorn. Based on a series of books by Aaron Blabey, the pic is out on Netflix this weekend. Voiceover work comes from Brittany Howard, Will Forte, Jemaine Clement, Edi Patterson, Fred Armisen, Zach Galifianakis, Napoleon himself Jon Heder, and Shondrella Avery.
Critical reaction is mostly complimentary though not lavish in acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70%. I’m guessing Netflix won’t make this a priority in their Best Animated Feature campaign. Perhaps it can make the final five if the field is especially weak though I wouldn’t bank on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.
The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.
This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.
For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.
The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
Chicken for Linda! premiered in France at the Cannes Film Festival close to a year ago. The 73 minute hand-drawn animated effort comes from filmmakers Chiara Malta and Sébastien Laudenbach and it has finally arrived stateside after GKIDS nabbed distribution rights.
The bulk of reviews are fresh as evidenced by the 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That said, many of those write-ups are tempered in their flattery. GKIDS has shown an ability to their features nominated for Best Animated Feature, including seven in the past decade alone (the most recent being their first winner The Boy and the Heron). Therefore I certainly wouldn’t count Chicken out though the studio is expected to have more at bats coming later in 2024. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.
The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
Japan’s animated action fantasy franchise hopes to continue cutting into the American box office when Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira premieres on February 23rd. Haruo Sotozaki, who helmed previous entries Mugen Train (2021) and To the Swordsmith Village (2023), returns.
The trilogy of manga offerings is spawned from the anime TV series that ran from 2016-2020. While their profits are larger overseas, domestic grosses have impressed. In April of 2021, Mugen took in $21 million in its opening weekend with just under $50 million for the overall haul. In March of last year, Swordsmith‘s earnings were a cut below. It made $10.1 million out of the gate and the abbreviated run ended at $16.9 million.
I’m forecasting that Hashira will experience similar numbers to Swordsmith. I don’t anticipate a significant drop-off and it could even slightly exceed its predecessor’s start.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
Orion and the Dark is streaming as of today on Netflix. Produced by DreamWorks Animation and marking the directorial debut of Sean Charmatz, the animated fantasy deals with themes of existentialism and fear. This is not too surprising considering the script comes from Charlie Kaufman, adapting Emma Yarlett’s children’s book. The voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Colin Hanks, Paul Walter Hauser, Angela Bassett, Ike Barinholtz, Natasia Demetriou, Nat Faxon, Carla Gugino, and Werner Herzog.
Kaufman is no stranger to the genre. He wrote and directed 2015’s Anomalisa. That critically acclaimed effort was up for Animated Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Pixar’s Inside Out. Netflix knows how to get their animated material awards attention. Recent nominees include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Sea Beast, the victorious Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and Nimona.
Orion is getting a warm reception so far with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. We don’t know yet what this category’s landscape will look like several months down the road. However, I wouldn’t underestimate the chances for this to make it in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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