Tag: Angel Studios

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Arthur the King Box Office Prediction
Love Lies Bleeding Box Office Prediction

Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.

Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.

The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.

Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. Love Lies Bleeding

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 8-10)

DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.

Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.

In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.

Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.

Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction
Imaginary Box Office Prediction
Cabrini Box Office Prediction

I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.

If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.

Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.

That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.

Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $40.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

3. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 1-3)

I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.

After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.

Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.

Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Cabrini Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios is hoping that audiences of the faith-based variety flock to Cabrini this weekend. The tale of Italian immigrants in late 19th century New York comes from Alejandro Monteverde, who made the unexpected smash hit Sound of Freedom for the aforementioned production company last summer. Cristiana Dell’Anna stars in the title role of the real life eventual saint. Costars include David Morse, Romana Maggiora, Federico Iepali, Virginia Bocelli, Rolando Villazón, Giancarlo Giannini, and John Lithgow.

Early reviews are of the thumbs up variety with a 96% RT rating. As mentioned, the studio broke out in a major way with Freedom, which grossed an astonishing $184 million. This was assisted by a unique pay it forward marketing strategy. Angel follow-ups haven’t gotten anywhere near those numbers. October’s After Death took in just over $5 million for its start while December’s The Shift premiered to $4.4 million.

I will readily admit that I’m playing a guessing game with Cabrini. I haven’t seen a theater count and my estimate could shift when I do. A Catholic contingent could get this to higher figures than I’m about to project. Faith-based titles in general certainly have the ability to exceed expectations. It could also start out slow and hold well in subsequent weekends with Easter approaching. This might hit $10 million or even post a larger gross I’m not envisioning. $5 million is also possible. I’ll go higher single digits, but keep an eye on this post to see if I change it up or down before Friday.

Cabrini opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million

For my Kung Fu Panda prediction, click here:

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction

For my Imaginary prediction, click here:

Imaginary Box Office Prediction

December 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.

Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).

After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.

In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.

Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.

The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.

Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.

Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.

John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.

Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 1-3 Box Office Predictions

November closed out at the box office with an unpredictable Thanksgiving frame where I had the entirety of the top four in the wrong spots. The head scratching will continue as December arrives with a quintet of newcomers (four of which could post very similar earnings). We have the concert pic Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, Japanese monster mash Godzilla Minus One, John Woo’s dialogue free action thriller Silent Night, sci-fi drama The Shift from Angel Studios, and Hindi-language shoot-em-up Animal. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Box Office Prediction
Godzilla Minus One Box Office Prediction
Silent Night Box Office Prediction
The Shift Box Office Prediction
Animal Box Office Prediction

Beyoncé’s tour doc might be the only new entry in the top five. While it shouldn’t approach the near $100M out of the gate that Taylor Swift accomplished, a mid to high 20s output would firmly put it in first position.

It is common to see hefty drops after the Turkey Day weekend and that should apply to the leftovers. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (after surprisingly staying at #1 over the holiday) should slide to second with a mid 50s decline.

After that… it’s a crapshoot. Any of the newcomers could post better figures than my calls. However, I have all four making between $5-8 million and each falling outside the top five.

That’s because Napoleon, Wish, and Trolls Band Together may all flirt with $10 million. I’ve got the trio falling under that for a close finish between 3-5.

With all the newbies, I’ll expand to a top ten outlook and here’s how I see it:

1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Wish

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

4. Napoleon

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. Trolls World Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

6. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Silent Night

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. The Shift

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

9. Animal

Predicted Gross: $4 million

10. Thanksgiving

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

In one of the most unexpected upsets in recent memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes had a far better than anticipated sophomore hold to rather easily take the holiday weekend. The franchise prequel eased a mere 35% for $29 million from Friday to Sunday, surpassing my $20.3 million projection with flying colors. The ten-day take is now $98 million.

Ridley Scott’s bio-epic Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix was second as it slightly rose above forecasts. It made $20.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $32.7 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. That’s ahead of my respective $18.2 million and $28.5 million takes. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, it may fade rather quickly.

After the massive flop that was The Marvels, the news didn’t get better for the Mouse House as the animated Wish was granted a tepid start in third. With ho-hum reviews, the Disney title fell far short of hopes with $19.6 million over the three-day and $31.6 million since Wednesday. I (along with most others) predicted a first place showing and had it at $32.2 million and $46.4 million. Ouch.

Trolls Band Together, in weekend two, was fourth with $17.8 million. I was more generous at $22.6 million and the DreamWorks Animated sequel has made $64 million after ten days.

Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving capitalized on that title with a fifth place slot and $7 million (I said $6.5 million). The ten-day tally is a respectable $24 million, especially since it comes with a low budget.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Shift Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios has had a heavenly 2023 with the massive success of Sound of Freedom over the summer and the recent better than anticipated debut of the documentary After Death. They’ll try to replicate the good tidings with The Shift on December 1st. The low-budget sci-fi pic is directed by Brock Heasley with a cast led by Kristoffer Polaha, Neal McDonough, Elizabeth Tabish, Rose Reid, and Sean Astin.

This is not expected to come anywhere the bounty that Freedom brought in. It earned $40 million over an extended Fourth of July frame on its way to a $184 million domestic haul. The Shift, at the high end of its range, could make a fourth or fifth of that for starters. At the low end, it might premiere to a tenth of that figure.

Fair warning: I’ve underestimated both aforementioned Angel titles this year. If it made close to $10 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. $4-5 million is also feasible.

The Shift opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million

For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé prediction, click here:

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Box Office Prediction

For my Silent Night prediction, click here:

Silent Night Box Office Prediction

For my Godzilla Minus One prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus One Box Office Prediction

For my Animal prediction, click here:

Animal Box Office Prediction

November 3-5 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking Halloween opening at the box office, Five Nights at Freddy’s will have no trouble dominating the charts again as November arrives. The only wide release is the expansion of biopic Priscilla from Sofia Coppola. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Priscilla Box Office Prediction

While it played went well in limited release this weekend, Priscilla probably won’t impress as it goes nationwide. I’m projecting it at the lower end of its range for what could be a fourth or fifth place showing (depending on the second weekend drop for faith-based doc After Death).

Freddy’s is ready to easily be 1st again after its massive start (more on that below). It’s a reasonable assumption that its earnings will be quite front loaded. A mid 60s to even high 60s decline wouldn’t be a surprise, but that would still give it a second frame atop the landscape due to scant competition.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon (following a disappointing sophomore performance) should retain their spots in second and third. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Priscilla

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

5. After Death

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (October 27-29)

Based on the hugely successful series of video games, Five Nights at Freddy’s obliterated the previous best Halloween weekend of all time. It was held by 2011’s Puss in Boots with $34 million. Freddy’s more than doubled that mark with an astonishing $80 million. That’s good for the third highest horror start in history after It and its sequel. It bested my $68.3 million prediction and that’s all the more impressive considering it premiered simultaneously on Peacock.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, after its own record setting two weeks on top, fell to second with $15.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $14.2 million take as it’s up to $150 million domestically.

Killers of the Flower Moon, despite great reviews and Oscar buzz, fell a troubling 60% in its second outing with $9.3 million. I assumed it would hold up much better at $13.4 million. The subpar ten-day tally (especially considering a $200 million budget) is $40 million.

I mistakenly left After Death out of top five. The documentary from Angel Studios (the company behind the unexpected summer smash Sound of Freedom) was fourth with $5 million.

The Exorcist: Believer rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.5 million) for $59 million in four weeks.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was sixth with $2.3 million (I went with $2.9 million) for five week earnings of $59 million as well.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Sound of Freedom

With backing from upstart Angel Studios and a budget below $15 million, action thriller Sound of Freedom has unquestionably become the summer’s sleeper hit. When it was released on July 4th, it came in under the radar screens of many prognosticators (including this one). The marketing campaign was clever with a pay it forward angle allowing viewers to purchase tickets afterwards for their family and friends. Combine that with an emphasis on appealing to conservative and faith-based crowds and the Jim Caviezel vehicle took off in a way few anticipated. After its second weekend in release, the gross stands at over $85 million stateside. It actually increased its box office haul in weekend #2 by over 35%. That doesn’t happen often.

Moviegoers are liking what they see. The Cinemascore grade is a rare A+ and the Rotten Tomatoes score for the masses is 100%. As for the official reviews, the RT meter is a favorable though far from overwhelming 72%.

Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have thought to do an awards write-up on Freedom. Yet I suspect the film’s target audience will push for its inclusion to Academy members in Best Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay. It is extremely unlikely to materialize, but expect to see lots of social media chatter advocating for it in the early part of 2024. If Caviezel’s mega-grossing The Passion of the Christ nearly 20 years ago couldn’t get on Academy’s radar, this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios, the company behind The Chosen and His Only Son, hopes to find passionate fans with the action flick Sound of Freedom. From director Alejandro Monteverde, Jim Caviezel stars as a vigilante taking on human traffickers. Costars include Mira Sorvino, Bill Camp, and Kurt Fuller.

With a reported budget under $15 million, Freedom rolled out on July 4th with hopes for a healthy six-day run (I’ll confess that this was under my radar). It’s already nabbed a very impressive $14 million due to Angel’s unique form of crowdfunding and marketing to a targeted conservative audience.

This certainly has the ability to outpace any expectations and I do believe a Friday to Sunday take exceeding $10 million is achievable. That should put it in third place behind Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door.

Sound of Freedom opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million (Friday to Sunday estimate)

For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction

For my Joy Ride prediction, click here:

Joy Ride Box Office Prediction