Tag: Angel Studios

September 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Him Box Office Prediction
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction
The Senior Box Office Prediction

Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.

The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.

As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.

Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.

Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.

Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:

1. Him

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. The Long Walk

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

7. The Senior

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (September 12-14)

Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.

The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.

Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.

The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).

Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Senior Box Office Prediction

Nearly two years after premiering at the Fort Lauderdale Film Festival, The Senior is finally graduating to an actual release on September 19th. Distributed by Angel Studios, it tells the true life story of a 59-year-old (Michael Chiklis) given the chance to play college football. Rod Lurie directs with Mary Stuart Masterson, Brandon Flynn, James Badge Dale and Rob Corddry costarring.

The Senior will not be the biggest grossing gridiron themed debut next weekend due to horror pic Him. It does have a fair shot at outgrossing the weekend’s other new release A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, which sports a higher profile.

Like other Angel titles, a lower to mid single digits start is the likely scenario.

The Senior opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million

For my Him prediction, click here:

Him Box Office Prediction

For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction

August 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Nobody 2 Box Office Prediction

The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.

Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.

As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Nobody 2

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.

Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.

The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).

The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.

Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction
Weapons Box Office Prediction
Sketch Box Office Prediction

Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).

Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.

As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).

Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $32.5 million

2. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

4. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

5. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).

Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.

The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.

Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.

Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Sketch Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios flies out of their comfort zone and hope to draw up surprising box office numbers for Sketch when it opens on Wednesday, August 6th. Marking the directorial debut of Seth Worley, the family friendly fantasy stars Tony Hale, D’Arcy Carden, Bianca Belle, Kue Lawrence, and Kalon Cox.

Centered around a kids book come to life, Sketch was initially screened at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. Distribution rights were unexpectedly snatched up by Angel, best known for Sound of Freedom and various faith-based features. Reviews stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic.

I would be more confident that Angel had another sleeper on their hands if not for their more recent track history. In the past couple of years, the studio’s filmography has yielded mostly low to mid single digit starts. Perhaps children and their parents will show up in bigger numbers that I’m envisioning. Mid single digits from Friday to Sunday with a couple million more when counting Wednesday and Thursday is my hunch.

Sketch opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Freakier Friday prediction, click here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction

For my Weapons prediction, click here:

Weapons Box Office Prediction

May 30-June 1 Box Office Predictions

Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction
Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.

Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.

I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $66.4 million

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million

3. Karate Kid: Legends

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

4. Bring Her Back

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (May 23-26)

The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.

While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.

Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.

Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.

Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.

The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.

Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.

Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 23-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction
The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction
Friendship Box Office Prediction

Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.

Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.

The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.

As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.

And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

3. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

5. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $14 million

6. The Last Rodeo

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

7. Friendship

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)

8. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.

The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.

Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.

The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.

Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction

Plenty of audience attention should be focused on Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning this Memorial Day weekend. However, Angel Studios will attempt to carve out a decent niche for The Last Rodeo over the long holiday frame. Neal McDonough (who co-scripted) plays a retired bull rider driven back into the ring. Mykelti Williamson, Sarah Jones, and Christopher McDonald costar with Jon Avnet directing.

Just five months ago McDonough partnered with the faith-based studio for Homestead. It made $6 million in its December start with $20 million overall domestically. Rodeo might lasso about the same amount from Friday to Sunday with a less extra when figuring Monday.

The Last Rodeo opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million (Friday to Monday); $7.8 million (Friday to Monday

For my Lilo & Stitch prediction, click here:

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction

For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction

For my Friendship prediction, click here:

Friendship Box Office Prediction

April 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:

Sinners Box Office Prediction

It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.

Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.

Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $46.1 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

3. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.

Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.

The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.

Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.

Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.

Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The King of Kings

Inspired by a children’s book from Charles Dickens released some 60 plus years following his death, Angel Studios has the faith-based animated offering The King of Kings in multiplexes this weekend. Seong-ho Jang directs the bio of Jesus Christ with Oscar Isaac voicing him. Kenneth Branagh is Dickens with Uma Thurman, Mark Hamill, Pierce Brosnan, Roman Griffin Davis, Forest Whitaker, and Ben Kingsley also providing behind the mic contributions.

Early box office indicators show this might perform well in the pre-Easter frame. Reviews are so-so with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 48 Metacritic. It likely doesn’t have a prayer for a nomination in Best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards and precursor ceremonies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…