Tag: Andrea Riseborough

79th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.

Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

How I Did: 4/5

Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.

Best Animated Feature

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 1/3

I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka

How I Did: 4/5

Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/5

Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.

Best Make Up and Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 3/5

A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Sinners is the frontrunner.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 3/5

Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

How I Did: 4/5

Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve

How I Did: 7/10

I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

How I Did: 3/5

Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.

Best Children’s + Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 2/4

Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.

That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominatons

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

Bugonia, I Swear

3 Nominations

The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion

2 Nominations

The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman

The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.

79th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.

For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Harry Melling, Pillion

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

I Swear

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – It Was Just an Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Pillion

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Animated Film

Arco

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Elio

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Ocean with David Attenborough

The Perfect Neighbor

2000 Meters to Andrivka

Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirāt

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Casting

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Sirāt

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Alternate – Frankenstein

Best Costume Design

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Editing

Bugonia

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – F1

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Production Design

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

The Lost Bus

Superman

Alternate – Wicked: For Good

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later

Ballad of a Small Player

The Ballad of Wallis Island

The Choral

Die, My Love

Hamnet

H is for Hawk

I Swear

Pillion

Warfare

Alternate – Steve

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

My Father’s Shadow

Ocean with David Attenborough

Pillion

Urchin

Wasteman

Alternate – The Ceremony

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco

Grow

How to Train Your Dragon

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Hamnet, Sinners

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Pillion

4 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

2 Nominations

Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons

Oscar Predictions: Goodbye June

On paper, Goodbye June sure sounds like an Oscar contender. It marks the directorial debut of seven-time nominee (and one-time winner) Kate Winslet from a screenplay written by her son Joe Anders. The family drama set during the holidays features an awards bait cast including Toni Collette, Johnny Flynn, Andrea Riseborough, Timothy Spall, Helen Mirren, and Winslet herself. It is out in limited fashion this weekend before a Christmas Eve Netflix bow.

However, as was the case with yesterday’s post on Ella McCay, the fact that it skipped festivals and that the review embargo is lifting only now is telling. Heck there wasn’t even a trailer until a month ago. The 68% Rotten Tomatoes isn’t so bad, but Metacritic is at 49. That’s not the numbers needed for Oscar attention and you can say goodbye to its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Is Origin An Oscar Sleeper?

Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.

Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.

That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.

Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.

Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.

I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io capitano

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Symphony

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“High Life” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

5 Nominations

Past Lives

4 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscar Predictions: Lee

Ellen Kuras is best known for her cinematography (including Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) and she makes her directorial debut with Lee. Kate Winslet stars in the true life tale of a model turned WWII war photographer. The supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård, Andrea Riseborough, Marion Cotillard, Josh O’Connor, Noémie Merlant, and Andy Samberg.

Reaction from its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival is mostly complimentary though not effusive. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 75%. Winslet and surprisingly Samberg are getting the lions share of kudos. The only real awards play is Winslet, who would be gunning for nomination #8 (her sole Actress win came for 2008’s The Reader). She could make the cut, but the lead category is already packed. Winslet is already behind others like Emma Stone (Poor Things), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) in my view. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Eric Larue

As the mom of a school shooter preparing to meet with family members of the departed, Judy Greer stars in Michael Shannon’s directorial debut Eric Larue. Brett Neveu adapts his own play with a supporting cast including Paul Sparks, Alison Pill, Tracy Letts, and Alexander Skarsgård. It premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and is seeking domestic distribution for later this year.

Reviews for the picture itself are a mixed bag with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the critical reaction compares it to 2021’s similarly themed Mass. That film received more acclaim and came up empty at the Oscars.

The story should be the same for Larue with one possible exception. Greer is generating career best notices. She’s one of those performers that you’ll recognize from many projects on the big and small screen. The lengthy list includes Adaptation, 13 Going on 30, The Village, 27 Dresses, The Descendants, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Halloween and sequel Halloween Kills.

Normally I’d say that Larue might be too minor a project for Greer to contend for Best Actress attention. However, Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nom a few months back for To Leslie at least has me wondering. Greer is well-respected with two decades of character actor work. I wouldn’t count on her getting in, but the right campaign could change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

FINAL Oscar Predictions: 95th Academy Awards

After nearly a year of speculation on the blog and the new podcast (look up Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite pod platform, folks!), the time has come to make my final picks for the winners at the 95th Academy Awards. The ceremony comes our way Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel hosting and here’s hoping the presenters are given the correct envelopes and that no one gets slapped.

For some context, here’s how I did in the previous four Oscars (note that there were 21 races through 2019 because the sound competitions were divided into Editing and Mixing until their combination).

2018: 14/21

2019: 18/21

2020: 13/20

2021: 17/20

Note that I seem to do better in the odd numbered years. That could repeat for 2022 as three of the four acting derbies are highly tricky to pick and there are other down-the-line competitions that could go in different directions. As for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film… not so much.

Let’s go through them one by one and I’ll give you my winner and runner-up projection!

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

The tricky part isn’t picking the victor. It’s picking the runner-up. That’s because Everything has taken, well, nearly everything. PGA. DGA. WGA. SAG Ensemble. Critics Choice.

OK, so All Quiet received the BAFTA and The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were your respective Drama and Musical/Comedy recipients at the Golden Globes. Yet the momentum has been with Everything for some time and it is the easy pick for the biggest prize of the night.

Given that a screenplay and acting statue are legitimately in play, Banshees has the strongest argument for a package of trophies that could include BP. It’s a distant runner-up.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director

Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

I suppose the voters could go the Globe route and bestow their honor on the legendary Spielberg. Doubtful. Look for the Academy to match the DGA and Critics Choice selections of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.

Predicted Winner: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Now it gets tough. Blanchett’s towering work could be undeniable as it was to BAFTA and Critics Choice (similar to how Anthony Hopkins from The Father managed a win over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom two years ago). The BP momentum and SAG could push Yeoh over the line. This is a coin flip and I’m siding with the momentum.

Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Best Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

A three-person race dwindled when Farrell lost the BAFTA. It went instead to Butler and he also won the Globe (over Fraser). SAG and Critics Choice went to Fraser. I have gone back and forth on this endlessly. If Fraser won, he would break a precedent of the victorious Actor’s movie being up for Best Picture. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) to find the last one whose film wasn’t in the BP lineup. I cannot stress enough that this is 50.5/49.5.

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Unlike Actress and Actor, this is between three nominees. Curtis surprisingly nabbed SAG while Bassett took Critics Choice and the Globe. Both are actresses whose wins could double as career achievement honors. I have a suspicion that the Academy may instead look at BAFTA winner Condon as their best opportunity to throw Banshees a bone.

Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Keoghan is the #2 since he unexpectedly won BAFTA. That said, this is the simplest acting race to project as Quan has won everything everywhere else.

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

If All Quiet over performs (and it might), it could emerge here. The smart money is on Sarah Polley and WGA honored script for Talking.

Predicted Winner: Women Talking

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Here’s another category where voters could single out Banshees. Still – I’m not going against the strong BP frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

del Toro’s version of the classic tale has taken all precursors that matter. This is one of the uncomplicated calls.

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl

This might even be more automatic than Animated Feature. As your lone BP contestant, All Quiet will make noise here.

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

Tough pick. Breathes and Beauty are viable. I’ve picked Fire of Love over Navalny twice in Critics Choice and PGA and missed both times. Not again.

Predicted Winner: Navalny

Runner-Up: Fire of Love

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár

When perceived favorite Top Gun: Maverick shockingly failed to make this quintet, the race opened up. Elvis could make history and have the first female winner in Mandy Walker. It’s tempting to pick her, but I’ll go with Quiet.

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Costume Design

Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

On the other hand, here’s one where Elvis could take the gold. I wouldn’t count out Panther or even Everything if its sweep branches into upsets.

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Maverick is in the mix, but Everything should extend its haul.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

The Whale and Western are possible. I’m giving this one to The King, however.

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: The Whale

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

This is one of the most open categories. I don’t see Banshees landing this. All 4 others are possible. Babylon or Western might be the smart pick, but this is the one true upset I’m selecting and projecting a Fabelmans/John Williams appreciation victory.

Predicted Winner: The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Original Song

“Tell It Like a Woman” from Applause, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

I don’t believe this is cut and dry. The star power of Gaga and Rihanna or an Everything expansion everywhere could make it interesting. “Naatu Naatu” has dominated the precursors and I’m not going with two upsets in the musical competitions.

Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

This is where Babylon should be Oscar winner Babylon though Elvis lurks.

Predicted Winner: Babylon

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

And this is where Top Gun: Maverick should get its Oscar. Yet I’m going with a minor upset pick with Western. That means I’m projecting Maverick ends up 0 for 6.

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

No real Maverick shot in VE because Avatar is one of the automatic category picks.

Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

That equates to these movies achieving these numbers of wins:

6 Wins

Everything Everywhere All at Once

3 Wins

All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis

1 Win

Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Women Talking

I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening or Monday on the blog and the podcast!

Oscars: The Case of Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

As a down on her luck lottery winner who blew through the cash, Andrea Riseborough’s much discussed Best Actress nomination for To Leslie is next up in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Andrea Riseborough:

Even a week before Oscar nods came out, Riseborough (known for roles in mainstream and indie fare including Oblivion, Battle of the Sexes, and Mandy) was on no one’s radar screen for this small budget drama. Then a grassroots campaign emerged with shout-outs from fellow competitor Cate Blanchett and others. Most didn’t think she’d manage to get in, but lo and behold it happened. So it that can happen… why not a victory?

The Case Against Andrea Riseborough:

Well, there’s plenty of reasons why there probably won’t be a win. She was mentioned in zero precursors. The unconventional campaign for her to make the quintet – fairly or unfairly – has been criticized. And Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) appear to be in a two-person race for the gold.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The biggest surprise of the 20 contestants in the four acting derbies, Riseborough’s inclusion could lead to changes in the Academy’s campaign rules or could revolutionize how small distributors mount their campaigns. It’s doubtful the end result of the nomination itself is a win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Brendan Fraser in The Whale!

For my write-ups on Riseborough’s fellow nominees, click here:

Oscars: The Case of Cate Blanchett in Tár
Oscars: The Case of Ana de Armas in Blonde
Oscars: The Case of Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Oscars: The Case of Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

95th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.

There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.

As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.

Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?

Best Picture

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

How I Did: 8/10

No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.

As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).

Best Director

The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

How I Did: 4/5

The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 3/5

In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

How I Did: 3/5

Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/5

Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.

Best International Feature Film

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl

How I Did: 3/5

Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

How I Did: 4/5

Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár

How I Did: 3/5

Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.

Best Costume Design

The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

How I Did: 4/5

Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.

Best Film Editing

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

How I Did: 4/5

Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.

Best Original Score

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

How I Did: 3/5

Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.

Best Original Song

The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

How I Did: 4/5

Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.

Best Production Design

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

How I Did: 4/5

A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.

Best Sound

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.

That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin

8 Nominations

Elvis

7 Nominations

The Fabelmans

6 Nominations

Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

3 Nominations

Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

Living, Women Talking

1 Nomination

Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red

So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!