Tag: Amy Winehouse

May 24-27 Box Office Predictions

After an iffy start to the summer cinematic season, the industry hopes business heats up over Memorial Day weekend. We have George Miller’s franchise prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga looking to lead the way with the animated The Garfield Movie angling to post a strong second place showing. There’s also the faith-based biopic Sight from Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction
The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction
Sight Box Office Prediction

With mostly laudatory reviews (though not on the level of predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road), I’m estimating that Furiosa gets just under $50 million over the extended Friday to Monday frame. That would put in right in line with expectations.

Same goes for Chris Pratt’s vocal work as that orange tabby cat in The Garfield Movie. My low 40s forecast gives it a runner-up debut as this hopes to bring family audiences in for the next few weeks.

Speaking of families, they turned out on the lower end of the anticipated range for IF (more on that below). It was still a rather decent opening, but the competition from Garfield could sting a little. I still think manages a tad over $20 million for the holiday.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes should slide from 2nd to 4th in the mid teens to high teens region while slots 5-7 could be awfully close between The Fall Guy, Sight, and The Strangers: Chapter 1.

Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these figures are for Friday through Monday:

1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $47.2 million

2. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $41.5 million

3. IF

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $18 million

5. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. The Strangers: Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

7. Sight

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 17-19)

As mentioned, John Krasinski’s IF with Ryan Reynolds certainly didn’t over perform and came in with a fine but unremarkable $33.7 million. I thought it would get a bit more with $38.3 million. The A Cinemascore grade could mean its legs will be sturdy. That said, competition will be fierce.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was second after a muscular opening last weekend with $25.4 million, just outdoing my $23.6 million prediction. The two-week total is $100 million.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 managed (barely) the largest horror unveiling of 2024 with a better than expected $11.8 million estimate. Considering its reported teensy budget, that’s a solid number and ahead of my $9.1 million call.

The Fall Guy fell to fourth with $8.3 million, in line with my $8 million projection. The three-week gross is $62 million.

Challengers rounded out the top five in weekend #4 and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. It has made $43 million overall.

They tried to make the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black a hit, but audiences said no (no no). It flopped in sixth with a mere $2.8 million compared to my more hopeful $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 17-19 Box Office Predictions

John Krasinski’s fantastical family flick IF looks to top the box office charts while horror prequel The Strangers: Chapter 1 and the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

IF Box Office Prediction
The Strangers: Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Back to Black Box Office Prediction

IF is a tricky one to call. It has star power in the form of Ryan Reynolds and plenty of familiar faces voicing the various imaginary friends in the cast. On the other hand, this is original IP and it could struggle to break out with more franchise friendly titles for the fam coming our way this season (The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4). I’m giving it a mid to high 30s start as it will hope to leg out well over the next several weeks.

The runner-up spot should go to current champ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (barring a massive underperformance from IF). The tenth feature overall in the long-running series premiered at highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). Its sophomore dip could be substantial. While 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes fell only 50%, follow-up War for the Planet of the Apes in 2017 tumbled 63%. It didn’t help that War faced direct competition from Dunkirk in its first outing. Then there’s the surprising B Cinemascore grade for Kingdom and that’s low for a blockbuster. Word-of-mouth could be an issue. I have it sliding in the high 50s or low 60s for a low to mid 20s second frame.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 could face the same genre hurdles that other recent titles have including Abigail and The First Omen. My estimate just north of $10 million puts it in third for a muted third place beginning.

The Fall Guy should continue its underwhelming run in fourth with a low to mid 40s ease in weekend #3.

With mostly poor reviews, a mid single digits start for Back to Black would have it rounding out the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. IF

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

3. The Strangers: Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

4. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Back to Black

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (May 10-12)

It was a wonderful weekend for 20th Century Studios as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes proved the franchise is in good working order. Arriving seven years after predecessor War, it topped that film’s gross with $58.4 million. That’s third in the series only to 2014’s Dawn and Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining and ahead of my $55.2 million call.

The Fall Guy fell to second with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.2 million prediction. The total sits at a ho-hum $49 million after ten days as the summer’s first flop will likely not reach nine figures domestically.

Challengers was third with $4.3 million (I said $4.7 million) as its three-week tally is $37 million.

I did not correctly identify the fourth and fifth place finishers. Why? Well… the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace was down a gargantuan 84% to $1.4 million (to bring its take to $486 million since 1999). I was far more generous and thought it would do $4 million. Oops.

That’s nothing compared to my overestimate of the Tyler Perry filmography spoof Not Another Church Movie. I had it in third place with $4.9 million. Instead it was 13th with a whopping…. $391k. Apparently filmgoers will go to Perry’s pics and do not want to see them made fun of.

Fourth place went to Tarot in its second go-round with $3.4 million. That’s actually a fine hold for horror as it has reached $11.9 million.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $2.6 million to bring its numbers to $191 million after seven weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Back to Black Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes audiences don’t say no no no to Back to Black when it arrives stateside on May 17th. Sam Taylor-Johnson, best known for making Fifty Shades of Grey, directs the Amy Winehouse biopic with Marisa Abela as the late crooner. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Despite middling reviews (only 38% on RT), Black premiered in the #1 spot in the UK about a month ago. Of course, its earnings should be more impressive across the pond. Stateside audiences might be more ambivalent and the shaky word-of-mouth won’t help.

Rolling out on approximately 2000 screens, this could open similarly to last fall’s Priscilla. It did $5.1 million in its wide release and I’ll forecast that this gets just under that.

Back to Black opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million

For my IF prediction, click here:

IF Box Office Prediction

For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

The Strangers: Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Back to Black

Back to Black doesn’t hit domestic venues until May 17th, but the biopic is out this weekend in the U.K. and reviews are available for download. Focused on the life of British crooner Amy Winehouse, Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson directs with Marisa Abel as the late singer. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Critical reaction is decidedly mixed. Trades like Variety and Hollywood Reporter are mostly positive while plenty of across the pond publications are panning it. The current result is 52% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Like another 2024 musical biopic about a legend gone too soon (Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title part), notices for its headliner are stronger than the picture itself. Abel is being praised and she’s at least a slight threat to contend in Best Actress. Like Ben-Adir, it might be a stretch to make the final cut. Perhaps BAFTA is more doable. Don’t expect Black to factor in anywhere else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…