Zack Snyder’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is indeed Warner Bros answer to the Marvel Cinematic Universe – a realization that more is more when it comes to bringing their stable of DC’s most famous superheroes to the same screen. Where Disney’s Avengers are often considerably lighter in tone, these caped crusaders bring the bleakness to their proceedings. The template set forth by Nolan’s Dark Knight trilogy and Snyder’s Man of Steel is present here with the additional responsibility to begin the forthcoming Justice League series. At two and a half hours, BvS does feel overstuffed from time to time. There are elements that just don’t work, but I came away believing its merits outweighed its flaws. More is more, from the Nigel Tufnel approved decibel level of its score and sound effects to a variety of subplots fighting against one another for a cohesive whole. It shouldn’t work as well as it does and that’s a compliment to the director and the actors (most of them at least).
The film picks up 18 months after Man of Steel, when Henry Cavill’s Supes defeated General Zod (Michael Shannon), who appears in a lifeless performance and I don’t mean that negatively. That throwdown with Zod and the casualties that resulted has caused some in the public and some in the government to question Superman’s role in society. This includes a Kentucky senator (Holly Hunter) who’s opened hearings into it. She is not, however, his most important detractor. Bruce Wayne/Batman (Ben Affleck) is. Gotham City’s morose bachelor doesn’t believe Kal-El stands for Truth or Justice or the American Way. It leads to a royal rumble between them that marks the inaugural time we’ve seen these giants in tights together.
Due to the aforementioned Justice League features coming soon to a megaplex near you, we also are introduced to Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman and briefly to some others. Gadot shines enough in her limited role to make us curious for her stand alone pic. Then there’s Lex Luthor (Jesse Eisenberg), who serves as our main antagonist. Eisenberg, who’s shined himself in certain roles, doesn’t here. His overacting and strange mannerisms (along with some doozies of dialogue) make him the weakest link here. Other supporting players from Man of Steel are back, including Laurence Fishburne as Perry White and Diane Lane as Clark’s beloved mama. Amy Adams’ Lois Lane is back as well and she’s grown better into her part the second time around. Jeremy Irons debuts as Batman butler Alfred. He doesn’t get much screen time and certainly won’t make you forget Michael Caine.
Henry Cavill continues his serviceable service as Superman. The best surprise is Affleck, who entered the unenviable position of following Christian Bale. He does a fine job as the beleaguered Wayne wrestling with his own demons (his parents murder is shown… again) and his distrust of the God like hero from Metropolis. I’m happy to report Affleck looks good in the Bat Suit and the screenplay even explains that lower register voice when he dons it.
BvS has a LOT of ground to cover between its action set pieces. The danger for this to feel fragmented and unfocused occasionally manifests itself, but it feels more united than it really has any right to. The main villain is a disappointment. Some of the special effects look suspect. Most look fantastic. Here we have a grim comic book tale that generally accomplishes its mission of being fairly decent dark entertainment. It also appears primed to achieve its studio’s mission statement: the birth of a franchise and keeping these icons flying on.
Technically it may be a follow up to 2013’s Man of Steel, but next weekend’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is considerably more than that. This is Warner Bros kick off to a slew of Justice League and stand alone comic book adaptations that unloads the top characters in the DC Universe arsenal. It is the first pairing of the two most iconic superheroes on Earth, with Henry Cavill reprising his role as Supes and Ben Affleck becoming the fifth high profile actor over the last quarter century plus to don the Bat Suit (excluding Will Arnett’s voice over work in The LEGO Movie). Zack Snyder, who made Steel, returns to direct with that predecessor’s performers Amy Adams, Diane Lane, and Laurence Fishburne back. Jesse Eisenberg makes his debut as Lex Luthor (with hair!), Jeremy Irons is butler Alfred, and Gal Gadot is Wonder Woman, soon to be in her own pic. Same goes for Jason Momoa as Aquaman, in addition to other cameos.
To say a lot is riding on Justice is quite an understatement. Its reported budget is at least $250 million and it’s had a vigorous marketing campaign that has lasted for months. The success of its future franchise entries are likely to be directly tied to its performance. Early speculation on its opening weekend possibilities are varied. While trailer reaction to February’s Deadpool and the upcoming Captain America: Civil War has been quite strong, there’s been a decidedly more mixed reception here. Some feel this might not reached the $132 million reached by Deadpool, which would be considered pretty disappointing. On the other hand, pre-release tracking is strong and outpacing both the Ryan Reynolds dirty superhero tale and Furious 7, which made $147 million out of the gate. This should, at the least, achieve becoming the highest Superman opening, topping Steel’s $116 million. It has a quite realistic shot at best March premiere if it manages to fly past the $152 million achieved by 2012’s The Hunger Games.
So where do I come out here? This is a tough call. I don’t see this making less than $125 million. I’m also skeptical that a gross matching or opening higher than, say, last year’s Avengers sequel at $191 million is a stretch (though you never know). My feeling is that this might open in range with the last two Dark Knight entries, which opened to $158 and $160 million, respectively. If it tops that, that would give it the distinction of largest start for a Bat flick. I’ll predict it comes just beyond those numbers.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening weekend prediction: $166.4 million
For my My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 prediction, click here:
In my ongoing series of Oscar History posts, we arrive at what happened during the year 2010. This was quite a strong year for movies and, unlike other years, I can’t really quibble with the ten pictures that were nominated.
I can, however, differ with what won: Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. While this was a very solid and entertaining picture, I would have definitely put at least three of the other nominees above it: Black Swan, Inception, and my favorite of the year, The Social Network. Other nominees were 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone.
Picture/Director matched up as Tom Hooper’s work in King’s Speech would win over Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). I may have found a spot for Christopher Nolan’s visually striking work in Inception.
The love for The King’s Speech continued in Best Actor as Colin Firth was honored for his portrayal as King George VI. He triumphed over Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and James Franco (127 Hours). It’s worth noting that Franco co-hosted the Oscars that year with Anne Hathaway. It wasn’t too memorable.
While his supporting players were showered with love, Mark Wahlberg was snubbed for his anchoring performance in The Fighter. Others worthy of mention: Leonardo DiCaprio in either Inception or Shutter Island and Robert Duvall for Get Low.
Natalie Portman was a bit of a no-brainer pick for her tour de force work in Black Swan in the Actress race, beating out Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).
I was a little surprised to see Bening’s Kids lead costar Julianne Moore left out. Franco’s co-host Anne Hathaway would’ve been a solid choice for her fine work in Love and Other Drugs. The Oscar voters rarely honor comedy, but they could have here with Emma Stone in her hit Easy A, as well.
Supporting Actor honored Christian Bale as Mark Wahlberg’s drug addicted brother in The Fighter. The other nominees were John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).
I might have found room for either Andrew Garfield or Justin Timberlake in The Social Network. And keeping the snubbed comedy theme going, here’s an outside the box mention: Rob Corddry for his hilarious work in Hot Tub Time Machine.
The Fighter also won in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo, who edged out her co-star Amy Adams. The other nominees: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, and Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. The voters could have certainly nominated either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey for their roles in Black Swan.
And that’s your Oscar History of 2010, my friends. We’ll get to 2011 soon…
Early on in Tim Burton’s Big Eyes, Walter Keane (Christoph Waltz) pontificates that art is not about quality when it comes to whether it sells. It’s about being at the right place at the right time. For many years, Walter’s words couldn’t ring more true for himself. And he could’ve added meeting the right person.
That person is Margaret (Amy Adams) and she’s a recent divorcee in the late 1950s (when it was quite uncommon) with a talent for painting portraits of her young daughter. Her signature look is our movie title on the face of her work. When she meets Walter, he seduces her with his plentiful charm and they’re soon married. He presents himself as a fellow painter, but his Paris landscapes don’t interest anyone. Margaret’s, on the other hand, begin to capture some attention and soon a confluence of circumstances lead Walter to claim credit for her work. Those circumstances (most completely Walter’s doing and some not) additionally lead his wife to go along with the deceit for a long time. As the years roll by, Walter becomes a renowned and celebrated figure, while conflicted Margaret paints their fortune in her secret studio in homes that grow in size.
Big Eyes is based on true events and the art filled subject matter is right up Burton’s alley, though with a majorly smaller budget than he’s used to. The 50s and then 60s San Francisco setting provides a vibrant look to the proceedings. Unlike most of the director’s recent efforts, the only special effects is some big eyes superimposed on human faces from time to time. The focus is on the relationship of Walter and Margaret. Recognizable faces like Danny Huston, Jon Polito, Krysten Ritter, Terence Stamp and Jason Schwartzman pop up in small supporting roles. Truth be told, the relationship dynamic between our two leads is often treading familiar territory. Margaret lives in an era where challenging her husband’s word is not easy. She even attempts to tell her huge secret during confession and the priest basically tells her to obey him.
The work of primarily Adams is impressive, as it almost always is. Creating a sympathetic character who still is not totally innocent in all her actions, the actress is fascinating to watch. Waltz is an exciting performer who’s earned two Oscars for his mastery of Tarantino’s dialogue. The role of Walter is a tricky one. He is painted in broad strokes in the screenplay and the filmmakers insist they actually downplayed him from real life. It may all be the truth about Walter’s world of non truth, but it is difficult to view him as anything more than a caricature on occasion.
Adams’ work and the legitimately interesting real life tale we see here are enough to recommend Big Eyes. It is also refreshing to see Burton doing commendable work without a $200 million budget remaking something, like he did 20 years back with Ed Wood. Speaking of that effort, Big Eyes comes from the same writers (Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski). This isn’t as memorable as that fine picture about a terrible director, but it’s a good film about a talented artist who is directed into a heckuva big scheme.
Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.
As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild
And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!
We are deep into awards season with Oscar nominations coming Thursday and my final predictions arriving Tuesday. The second most notable awards show arrives tomorrow evening with trusty hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning to host the Golden Globes. Here are my guesses for what will win at that show in the major categories.
As you may know, unlike the Oscars, the Globes split the Picture and leading performance races between Drama and Musical/Comedy. Here we go!
Best Film (Drama)
Nominees
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Imitation Game
Best Film (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
PREDICTED WINNER: Redmayne
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cumberbatch
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
PREDICTED WINNER: Moore
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jones
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
PREDICTED WINNER: Keaton
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Fiennes
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie
PREDICTED WINNER: Blunt
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Adams
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
PREDICTED WINNER: Simmons
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Norton
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
PREDICTED WINNER: Arquette
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Stone
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Linklater
…. And there you have it friends! Let’s see how the Globes turn tomorrow!
We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.
As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Best Original Screenplay
No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Best Actress
This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.
Predicted Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.
Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!
November brings us my third edition of my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since October’s round of predictions, a few important things have happened. First and foremost, Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Civil Rights pic Selma has screened for critics and vaulted itself into a major contender… and not just for nominations. Disney’s Into the Woods screened just last night and it too has entered the fray. The only film left unseen is Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, but it remains a potential force to be reckoned with.
Let’s go through the categories one by one and I’ll point out what changes have transpired in the last few weeks!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Only one change here as I’ve taken out American Sniper and subbed in Into the Woods. The other four nominees seem like sure things for the most part. If Woods or Sniper don’t get in, Inherent Vice, Still Alice, or Wild are other possibles.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Best Original Screenplay
I had Interstellar in a month ago, but this seems unlikely after the main complaints of critics was the script. Foxcatcher is out as well as it seems to be losing momentum in the Academy derby. I’ve put it Selma and Whiplash in their place. I’m still keeping in The Grand Budapest Hotel, though many prognosticators have it out of competition. A Most Violent Year and Mr. Turner could get in, too.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
We have a couple changes here as Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) join the mix, supplanting Laura Dern (Wild) and Kristen Stewart (Still Alice). Other possibles include Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) and Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year).
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Carmen Ejogo, Selma
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
We’ll make this simple – this is the one race where nothing has changed prediction wise! If any of my predictions falter – keep an eye out for Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth (both for Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), or Robert Duvall (The Judge).
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Actress
Just one alteration here as I’ve taken out Amy Adams for Big Eyes and substituted Emily Blunt for Into the Woods. Others with surprise nomination shots are Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Hilary Swank (The Homesman), and Jennifer Aniston (Cake).
Predicted Nominees
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
The most competitive category of all appears to have four shoo-ins now: Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. This is actually the first time I’ve included Oyelowo after Selma screened, so I’ve removed Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. The fifth slot is tough – it could be O’Connell, Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), or even Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler) or Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel). For now, though, I’m sticking with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, despite its downgrading among many for possible nominations.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
Last month, I included high profile auteurs David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar). They’re out and Ana DuVernay (Selma) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) are in. Oscar could make some history if DuVernay makes it in. She’d be the first African American woman to be recognized in this category. Additionally, my current estimates that include her and Angelina Jolie would mark the first time two women are up for the award.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
I’m still sticking with nine predicted nominees yet a third of them have changed. Gone are Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and American Sniper. They all have decent shots still, along with A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Joining the mix are Selma (a no brainer now) and less sure things Into the Woods and Whiplash. I’m still including Interstellar, though that’s an iffy proposition.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
We’ll have a fourth round of December predictions soon enough, friends! Until then…
The AFI Film Festival shed some light this week on some Oscar hopefuls that I’ve written about on this here blog in the past few days. It gave Ava DuVernay’s MLK pic Selma some real heat in the Best Picture, Director, and Actor race while Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper gave itself a shot in the Picture race as well. The industry has also trained its collective eyes on Big Eyes, Tim Burton’s true life biographical drama/comedy. The result? Iffy at best.
Burton is used to dealing with gargantuan budgets, but Big Eyes is an exception. Reportedly it cost just $10 million to produce and it focuses on Margaret Keane (Amy Adams), whose paintings became a phenomenon in the 1950s yet all credit was taken by her husband Walter (Christoph Waltz).
Adams and Waltz are no strangers to acting nominations at the Oscars. Adams has been recognized five times in the past nine years but hasn’t won. On the flip side, Waltz has been nominated in the Supporting Actor race for Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained and took home the gold on both occasions.
For Waltz, some writers have said his performance is a bit over the top and he seems highly unlikely to get his third nod. Adams is the one who could sneak in, but she would appear to be behind Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything). That would leave Adams with the fifth slot and there’s still Emily Blunt’s work in Into the Woods that has yet to be evaluated. Factor in other actresses who sneak into spot #5 and the chances of Adams getting her sixth nomination is very much a question mark.
The picture itself is receiving decent reviews but they aren’t overwhelmingly glowing. Big Eyes appears on the outside looking in for Best Picture and Director for Burton, who’s surprisingly yet to get Academy recognition.
This evening on the blog, we arrive at round two of my Oscar Predictions for the 2014 race, which will air in early 2015 with Neil Patrick Harris handling hosting duties. In late August, I made my initial round of predictions and two months later, much has changed and much has stayed the same. Unlike my first round, my second go round will include the races of Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay.
Let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s where I see the Oscar race right now in the eight major categories:
Best Adapted Screenplay
For my first crack at the Adapted Screenplay race, it’s probably safe to assume Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her own bestseller Gone Girl will make the cut, as well as festival favorites The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. I’m also safely (at the moment) including Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, even though no one has seen it yet. The fifth slot includes several contenders: Still Alice, Inherent Vice, Wild, Into the Woods, and American Sniper. No one has viewed Sniper yet, but its recently released trailer inspires hope.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Best Original Screenplay
Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman appear to be shoo-ins for inclusion. I’m also thinking Wes Anderson’s work for The Grand Budapest Hotel stands it best chance at a nod here. For the remaining two slots – I’m saying Foxcatcher and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, for now. Other contenders include Mr. Turner, Top Five, Whiplash, A Most Violent Year, Selma, and Big Eyes.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Best Supporting Actress
This race has changed quite a bit since my first round of predictions. I originally had both Emily Blunt for Into the Woods and Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything listed here, but it’s since been announced their performances will fall into the Best Actress race. They’re out – along with Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King in Selma. The only two actresses from my initial predictions are Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (who’s a front runner) and Laura Dern in Wild. Added to the mix are Emma Stone in Birdman and Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game. Other possibilities for the fifth slot include Meryl Streep in Into the Woods, Jessica Chastain in Interstellar, Carrie Coon for Gone Girl, Sienna Miller in American Sniper, Julianne Moore in A Map to the Stars, Anna Kendrick in Into the Woods, Katherine Waterson in Inherent Vice, and Jessica Lange in The Gambler. I’ll go with Kristen Stewart as a surprise nominee for the acclaimed Still Alice.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Emma Stone, Birdman
Best Supporting Actor
My first predictions didn’t include J.K. Simmons for his lauded work in Whiplash, but he could be considered the favorite at this juncture. Staying in are Edward Norton in Birdman and Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher and it’s tough to imagine them not being recognized. For the other two slots, I’m including Miyavi for his villainous role in Unbroken and Ethan Hawke for Boyhood. Left out from my first round: Domhall Gleeson (Unbroken), Logan Lerman (Fury), and Tim Roth (Selma). Other contenders: John Goodman for The Gambler, Tom Wilkinson for Selma, Albert Brooks for A Most Violent Year, Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes, Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice, Robert Duvall in The Judge, and Johnny Depp for Into the Woods.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Actress
Following my August estimates, the festival circuit anointed Julianne Moore as a likely front runner for playing an Alzheimer’s patient in Still Alice. I’m also sticking with initial predictions Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild). Since the announcement of her inclusion in this race and not Supporting Actress, Felicity Jones joins the fray for The Theory of Everything. Other possibilities: Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year (who made the cut in August), Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, Shailene Woodley in The Fault in Our Stars, and Hilary Swank for The Homesman.
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
Just like last year, what a crowded field we have! The following quartet seem virtual locks for nominations: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher). The fifth slot is the real mystery. I originally had Joaquin Phoenix here for Inherent Vice, but I’m skeptical now. For now, I’ll replace him with Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. Other possibilities include Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner (who could easily find a way in), Bradley Cooper in American Sniper (same), Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, Bill Murray for St. Vincent, David Oyelowo in Selma (depends on film’s success and critical reception), Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year, Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar (fact that he won last year hurts), Jake Gyllenhall for Nightcrawler (pic is probably too quirky and small), and Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher (Carell likely to steal his thunder).
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST ACTOR:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Jack O’Connell, Unbroken
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
Only one change here as I’m taking Bennett Miller’s direction for Foxcatcher out and putting David Fincher’s work in Gone Girl in. I think the commercial and critical success of it and Fincher’s reputation as one of Hollywood’s best filmmakers gets him in (at press time). Those who could spoil my predictions: Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Ana DuVernay (Selma), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), and Rob Marshall (Into the Woods).
Todd’s Current Predictions for BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar
Best Picture
As you may know, anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated in the biggest category of them all. Since that system has been in place, nine pictures have been recognized every time. In August’s predictions, I predicted eight. And now – I’m going with nine. The MLK biopic Selma is the one I’ve removed. Don’t get me wrong – it could still easily make the cut, but no one’s seen it yet and it’s a question mark. Gone Girl and American Sniper enter the race in my opinion and this marks their first inclusion. Other films that could potentially make the cut (even though I say no at the moment): Mr. Turner, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, and Into the Woods.
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