Ever since Nomadland was announced, it has been seen as a serious contender for the 2020 Oscars in multiple categories. This is Chloe Zhao’s follow-up to her acclaimed The Rider and it’s premiering all over the festival circuit this weekend (including Toronto and Venice) prior to its planned December 4th release. Based on reviews trickling out this afternoon, it’s living up to the hype.
The pic casts McDormand as a Nevada widow traveling the country in her van and critical reaction indicates it’s a tour de force performance from the two-time Best Actress winner. As you’ll recall, she took the gold statue in 1996 for Fargo and just three years back in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. It might seem early for such proclamations, but I’m confident enough to go on record. Frances McDormand is going to get a nomination for this. Obviously, there are plenty more films to be screened as far as her competition. This includes potential nominees like Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Kate Winslet (Ammonite), and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), among others. We shall see how that plays out, but today’s reviews opens the door for a third McDormand victory. If that were to occur, she would be just the second leading lady to win the prize more than twice. Katherine Hepburn did so four times.
David Strathairn is the other notable actor to discuss. The veteran thespian has one nomination to his credit for Best Actor in 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck. I have had him ranked at #2 (behind the late Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey) in my Supporting Actor estimates for the last two weeks. However, indications are that his role could be smaller than I originally figured. He could still get in, but I’m nowhere near confident. I suspect he won’t be at #2 when I update my projections next Thursday. Whether he’s in the top five remains to be seen (especially with multiple actors vying for spots in Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and One Night in Miami).
Nomadland also seems bound for a Best Picture nod and Zhao is certainly in line for attention with her direction. She would become just the sixth female to compete in that race and she could have company in 2020 with Regina King for Miami. Expect a wider audience to know Zhao’s name shortly as she’s making 2021’s Eternals for Disney/Marvel. Adapted Screenplay appears to be a lock and the movie’s Score and Cinematography and Editing could also be noticed.
Bottom line: Nomadland has stood as a contender for some time. The buzz out today elevates it even more, especially for Zhao and McDormand. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at the third week for my Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories and the biggest change so far can be summed up in four words: One Night in Miami.
The historical drama, which marks the debut feature film from actress Regina King, made waves when it screened this week at the Venice Film Festival. It has vaulted into the following categories for a nomination prediction: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay.
As for that supporting race, there are actually four contenders vying for attention. I’m currently giving the nod to Kingsley Ben-Adir for his portrayal of Malcolm X over his costars Leslie Odom, Jr. (Sam Cooke), Eli Goree (Cassius Clay), and Aldis Hodge (Jim Brown). Yet this could be a fluid situation and don’t be surprised if those other performers make their way to the list in future postings.
Speaking of the supporting actor race, there has been some speculation that the late Chadwick Boseman may actually be campaigned for in the lead Actor competition with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. As for now, I’m keeping him ranked first in Supporting Actor. We’ll see what transpires in the weeks ahead. If Boseman does go lead, it could open the door for Glynn Turman to get a supporting nod for the picture.
As for the week that was, my Oscar Watch posts focused on Miami, as well as some other titles that debuted as Venice. Most noteworthy is Pieces of a Woman, which has caused some chatter for its lead Vanessa Kirby and her costar Ellen Burstyn. Kirby also costars in The World to Come, which garnered solid reviews but isn’t identified in my current rankings. Other write-ups this week included The Duke (which could catch the attention of the Golden Globes for Jim Broadbent) and the heist comedic drama Kajillionaire. You can read all those detailed posts here:
With Venice still rolling along and the Toronto Film Festival set to open, this Friday will see the initial screenings of two major contenders – Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland and Francis Lee’s Ammonite. Expect Oscar Watch posts on both hopefuls this weekend.
The loser of the week is Tenet. I’ve taken it out of consideration for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. On the flip side, expect to see its name pop up again in October when I begin estimating all feature film races as it will surely nab some tech nods.
As for other developments since last Thursday:
My eight predicted Best Picture nominees from the past two weeks remains the same, but now it’s become nine with the addition of One Night in Miami.
Regina King’s inclusion in Best Director knocks out Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7.
My five Best Actress predictions remains the same, Both Vanessa Kirby and Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water) join the overall mix with Julianne Moore (The Glorias) and Jessie Buckley (I’m Thinking of Ending Things) falling out.
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) takes over the #1 spot over Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. There are no changes in the top five. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) makes his first appearance at #14 with Jesse Plemons (I’m Thinking of Ending Things) dropping out of the top 15.
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress over Ariana DeBose for West Side Story. Ellen Burstyn enters the fold at #15 with Debra Winger’s work in Kajillionaire exiting the top 15.
As mentioned, Kingsley Ben-Adir vaults from 12th to 4th in Supporting Actor and he replaces Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah. The top 15 marks the first appearances for Brian Tyree Henry (Red, White and Water) and Glynn Turman for Ma Rainey. Dropping out are Lucas Hedges in French Exit and David Alvarez in West Side Story.
In Original Screenplay, Never Sometimes Rarely Always gets its first mention since Tenet travels out of the race.
In Adapted Screenplay, One Night in Miami gets in over Dune in the top 5. First Cow makes its inaugural appearance in 14th with The Eyes of Tammy Faye dropping.
You can read the full slate of guesstimates here:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Dune (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
7. Ammonite (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
11. The Father (PR: 16)
12. Soul (PR: 10)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 14)
14. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
15. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
16. Minari (PR: 15)
17. Stillwater (PR: 18)
18. Annette (PR: 17)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 19)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23)
21. Red, White and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Respect (PR: 20)
23. French Exit (PR: 24)
24. Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 7)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 11)
11. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 14)
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 13)
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
15. Tom McCarthy, Stillwater (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christopher Nolan, Tenet
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
11. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Marion Cotillard, Annette (PR: 11)
13. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
14. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 15)
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Glorias
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 8)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 9)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11)
11. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 10)
12. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 12)
14. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5)
7. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)
10. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 11)
11. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 12)
13. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: 15)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 12)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 6)
11. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 8)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 11)
13. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 14)
14. Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, French Exit
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12)
12. Red, White and Water (PR: 14)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 13)
14. Annette (PR: 11)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 3)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
10. French Exit (PR: 11)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
13. The Humans (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Respect (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back at it next Thursday…
We have arrived at Week #2 for my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. I do so as the Venice Film Festival has kicked off with Telluride and Toronto slated to virtually get underway in the coming days. That means quite a few Oscar Watch posts will be up in short order, including for several of the features predicted below.
Since last Thursday, I’ve written only two Watch entries. Mulan isn’t likely to be a factor in any of the big races, but it could definitely contend for some technical categories. The forthcoming horror pic Antebellum didn’t impress critics and won’t be mentioned again here. If you would like to peruse those posts, you can do so here:
When I wrote my initial guesstimates one week ago, it was on the following day that movie lovers across the globe were hit with tragic news. The loss of Chadwick Boseman to colon cancer has shocked and saddened all of us. Despite his acclaimed performances in 42, Get On Up, and his iconic work as Black Panther, Mr. Boseman has yet to receive a nomination from the Academy. Last Thursday, I already had him listed at #2 in Supporting Actor for the upcoming Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is now listed first as is his costar Viola Davis in Best Actress.
Here are some other developments of note:
I am still higher on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (which also featured Boseman) than some other prognosticators. I have it listed for inclusion in Best Picture, Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Original Screenplay. However, its numbers have fallen a bit and I am taking Spike Lee out of my Director five.
My estimated eight Best Picture nominees has remained intact with some shifting in the rankings.
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Paul Greengrass (News of the World) are in for Director with the aforementioned Spike Lee and Francis Lee (Ammonite) out.
The five in Actress has not changed. In Actor, I’ve made the move to take Bill Murray’s performance in On the Rocks and put it in the supporting field. That allows for Tom Hanks (News of the World) to move up. In general, I have soured a bit on Rocks. You’ll see below that its numbers have dropped precipitously.
Supporting Actress also includes the same five women and that’s also the case with Supporting Actor.
Though I don’t have it in the top five, I’ve corrected French Exit to be listed in Adapted Screenplay as opposed to Original. Soul replaces The French Dispatch in Original for the moment while The Father vaults over West Side Story in Adapted.
As you’ll see, there’s plenty of new faces being mentioned for the first time that didn’t make the list last week and others who have dropped.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Dune (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
6. Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 16)
10. Soul (PR: 14)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
13. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
15. Minari (PR: 18)
16. The Father (PR: 17)
17. Annette (PR: 13)
18. Stillwater (PR: 21)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 22)
20. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Tenet (PR: 15)
22. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 24)
24. French Exit (PR: 25)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
C’Mon C’Mon
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
11. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
14. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Christopher Nolan, Tenet (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Leos Carax, Annette
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 11)
10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 8)
11. Marion Cotillard, Annette
12. Julianne Moore, The Glorias (PR: 9)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 15)
14. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 13)
15. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
8. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 13)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 8)
10. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
14. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 9)
15. Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (moved to Supporting Actor)
Timothee Chalamet, Dune
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 14)
8. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire (PR: 8)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 11)
15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
8. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 6)
9, Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 12)
10. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Lucas Hedges, French Exit (PR: 9)
14. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
15. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Oscar Isaac, Dune
Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 4)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 11)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 15)
11. Annette (PR: 13)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
14. Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tenet (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
French Exit (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Dune (PR: 2)
4. The Father (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
8. West Side Story (PR: 4)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
11. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9)
13. The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 11)
15. Respect (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it with updated predictions next Thursday!
As is tradition on the blog, my weekly Oscar prediction posts (coming to you each Thursday) kick off in the final weekend of August!
So while I’m following up with my normal Academy Awards speculating schedule, I am doing so in a year that is anything but traditional. The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously altered release schedules for many pictures. This has left many release dates still uncertain.
Additionally, I have chosen this late August date because it’s usually right before some high-profile film festivals like Toronto, Venice, and Telluride are set to kick off. Some of these fests are continuing to operate in a much different fashion. We will see some of the titles identified below (including Nomadland, Ammonite and One Night in Miami) screen at these virtual competitions in the coming days.
This week, one significant contender had its unveiling for critics and that’s Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. That reaction leads me to believe that it will certainly contend in a half dozen or so technical races, but that a Picture or Directing nod is a bit of a long shot.
Even in a year without the pandemic related challenges, Oscar speculation this early always comes with numerous caveats. They include the following:
Release dates will change and some movies listed here will get pushed back. This sure applies to 2020 and that’s even with the Academy extending eligibility to any features released in January and February of 2021.
There will be pics and performances that come out of nowhere and make their way to the release calendar that aren’t identified here.
Some performances listed in lead will shift to supporting and vice versa. For titles like David Fincher’s Mank, Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch – category placement for their large casts is still a question mark. As an example, there’s lot of potential contenders in The French Dispatch, but it’s impossible to determine who gets the critical shine. For the time being, I’m not listing any of the actors in that particular film.
There will be Original Screenplay hopefuls that turn out to be Adapted and vice versa.
Even with all those caveats, I was able to identify the winners in each of the top 8 categories in both 2018 and 2019. Their numeric placement varied widely. In 2018, I had Best Picture victor Green Book all the way down at 21 of my first initial 25 possibilities. Roma director Alfonso Cuaron, on the other hand, was placed at #2. Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek was at #12 in Best Actor with Olivia Colman in The Favourite at 9th in Actress. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) was 9th and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) was 2nd in the supporting fields. Adapted Screenplay winner BlacKkKlansman was in fifth with Original Screenplay recipient Green Book at #11.
As for 2019, Best Picture winner Parasite was originally placed in slot #7 while its director Bong Joon-Ho was fifth. In the lead acting companions, Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) was 6th and Renee Zellweger (Judy) was fifth. In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) was perched at #1 and that never changed. Supporting Actress Laura Dern (Marriage Story) was #2. Adapted Screenplay Jojo Rabbit was fourth and Original Screenplay Parasite was 5th.
So based on history, you’re likely seeing the eventual 2020 Oscar winners somewhere here on these listings. In 2020, though, who really knows?
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Ammonite
6. Dune
7. News of the World
8. West Side Story
Other Possibilities
9. The French Dispatch
10. Hillbilly Elegy
11. On the Rocks
12. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Annette
14. Soul
15. Tenet
16. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
17. The Father
18. Minari
19. C’Mon C’Mon
20. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
21. Stillwater
22. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
23. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
24. Next Goal Wins
25. French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
10. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
11. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
12. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Christopher Nolan, Tenet
14. Leos Carax. Annette
15. Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Julianne Moore, The Glorias
10. Marion Cotillard, Annette
11. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
12. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
13. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
14. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
2. Gary Oldman, Mank
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
8. Adam Driver, Annette
9. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
11. Timothee Chalamet, Dune
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
13. Matt Damon, Stillwater
14. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
15. Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
3. Olivia Colman, The Father
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
7. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
8. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
10. Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
11. Mary J. Blige, Respect
12. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
13. Meryl Streep, The Prom
14. Nicole Kidman, The Prom
15. Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Strathairn, Nomadland
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Burke, Mank
7. Tom Pelphrey, Mank
8. David Alvarez, West Side Story
9. Lucas Hedges, French Exit
10. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
11. Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
12. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
13. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
14. Oscar Isaac, Dune
15. Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. Ammonite
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul
7. On the Rocks
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. C’Mon C’Mon
10. Minari
11. Stillwater
12. French Exit
13. Annette
14. Tenet
15. Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. West Side Story
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father
7. Hillbilly Elegy
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
9. Next Goal Wins
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
11. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
12. The White Tiger
13. One Night in Miami
14. Respect
15. The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it next Thursday, folks! Until then…
My earliest Oscar prediction posts for the 2020 season culminates today with the grand prize… Best Picture! And on a more personal note, this particular writeup marks my 3000th entry on this movie blog of mine. Thanks to all the readers over the past few years!
As I have explained in the acting and directing race estimates, this year has been a challenging one for these initial projections. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown many release dates into uncertainty and that looks to continue for some time. That’s why I’m not yet putting Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch in the mix, for instance. Additionally, many of the fall festivals that showcase awards hopefuls have been downsized or canceled altogether. That said, the ones that are moving forward will do so in the coming weeks (so expect plenty of Oscar Watch posts in the near future).
Unlike the five other races already discussed, I’m putting 25 contenders in the Picture race (the others had 15). As you may know, the number of nominees in this category can fluctuate between five and ten. The magic number has been 9 for most years, including 2019. On a side note, the Academy has announced that, beginning next year, the number will move to a finite 10. I am currently going with 8 for the volume of 2020 nominees, but that could certainly change as the weeks roll along.
If you missed my aforementioned predictions on the other major competitions, you can find them right here:
Last year, the initial Best Picture forecast in August yielded six out of the nine eventual nominees. These were the winner Parasite, The Irishman, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. In my other possibilities, I identified the three other nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, and Joker.
Finally, a note on how these Oscar prognostications will move forward. Beginning on Thursday, August 27, I will begin weekly columns where I will rank and forecast the six major categories. In October, that weekly column will expand to all categories covering feature films. That will continue all the way through the announcement of nominations next year.
Let’s get at it!
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE
Ammonite
Da 5 Bloods
Dune
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
C’Mon C’Mon
The Father
First Cow
French Exit
Hillbilly Elegy
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Mulan
News of the World
Next Goal Wins
On the Rocks
Respect
Soul
Stillwater
West Side Story
And that does it, folks! Two weeks from now… the ranked estimates begin…
My first round of Oscar predictions in this topsy turvy time known as 2020 arrives at Best Director. If you missed my initial take on the four acting races, you can find them all here:
I’ve already discussed the challenges of making these August projections and many of them are the same as any other year. Yet it’s even trickier now due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ever shifting release dates that accompany it. This is why I’ve left off Wes Anderson and The French Dispatch as its premiere is especially in flux. If word comes out in the near future to its unveiling, he would almost certainly be in the top 15.
Some of the pictures and their makers listed here will (at least right now) be seen in the next few weeks at festivals. As for Tenet, the latest from Christopher Nolan is expected to be out in limited fashion stateside by month’s end.
2019 was a bit more stable and I correctly identified 4 of the eventual 5 nominees in my first late summer predictions. That includes winner Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Martin Scorsese, (The Irishman), and Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). My only miss was Todd Phillips for Joker and I didn’t even have him in the 10 other possibilities.
Let’s get to it with my introductory look at the players vying for behind the camera accolades!
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Mank
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Other Possibilities:
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Francis Lee, Ammonite
Tom McCarthy, Stillwater
Mike Mills, C’Mon C’Mon
Christopher Nolan, Tenet
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
I’ll have the big daddy of them all – Best Picture – up in short order! Stay tuned…
My big announcement today is the selection of my first candidates for Best Actress in the 2020 Oscar field! If you happened to miss my predictions for the supporting categories and Best Actor, you can find them right here:
Unlike Best Actor, none of my initial top 5 picks here have seen their pictures screened. As discussed in previous posts, 2020 is a mighty speculative year for these early August estimates. The potential contenders are certainly some heavy hitters and it was, frankly, hard to whittle the list to this quintet. 4 of my 5 choices here are past winners. Both Viola Davis and Jennifer Hudson are Supporting Actress victors for 2016’s Fences and 2006’s Dreamgirls respectively. Frances McDormand is a two-time lead Actress winner for 1996’s Fargo and 2017’s Three Billboards Outside, Missouri. Kate Winslet took this prize in 2008 for The Reader. The only non-winner is Michelle Pfeiffer and she’s been nominated three times. If she makes it here, it would mark her first nod in 28 years since 1992’s Love Field.
This is in addition to acclaimed actresses such as Amy Adams, Jessica Chastain, and Julianne Moore as possibilities and up and comers like Jessie Buckley, Liu Yifei, and Rachel Zegler. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there’s the silver screen return of cinematic legend Sophia Loren. She last won an Oscar for Two Women some 60 years ago. Elisabeth Moss has two already released pics for which she’s received solid reviews. Of the two, Shirley seems more viable than the horror hit The Invisible Man.
In 2019, my original late summer projections yielded a whopping 4 of the 5 eventual nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). In my ten other possibilities, I also identified eventual trophy recipient Renee Zellweger as Judy.
Lots of intrigue in this race and here’s the first take:
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Julianne Moore, The Glorias
Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Liu Yifei, Mulan
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
That completes the acting portions of the early predictions and Best Director is up next! Until then…
Today brings us my second post in my very early and quite speculative predictions on Oscar contenders for this thing we call 2020. I have already generated my initial picks for Supporting Actor and you can peruse it here:
So we arrive at Supporting Actress. In my previous writeup for the gentlemen vying for recognition this year, I went into great detail regarding the challenges of Academy forecasting in 2020. I will not rehash them in detail here, but they obviously involve the COVID-19 pandemic that has created tremendous uncertainty when it comes to release dates. There’s the typical every year questions as well such as whether certain performers will end up in lead or supporting (Olivia Colman in The Father is just one example). Netflix’s The Prom, with Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, is another one to watch as far as campaigns (I’ve got them both here for the moment). And I’m currently guessing that Saoirse Ronan will be in this race for Ammonite with her costar Kate Winslet going for Best Actress.
We already have some storylines that could prove fascinating if they pan out. In 2018, Olivia Colman scored a surprise win for The Favourite in lead actress over the more favored Glenn Close in The Wife. In 2020, we could certainly see them go head to head once again in supporting.
When I made my inaugural predictions post in this race in 2019, I correctly identified two of the eventual nominees in my top 5. This included winner Laura Dern in Marriage Story as well as Florence Pugh for Little Women. In my 10 other possibilities, I named Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit. I did not, however, list the other two contenders: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell).
The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it’s a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.
Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d’or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist.
So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I’ll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year’s Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.
Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.
Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.
Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He’s responsible for two of the studio’s most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009’s Up and 2015’s Inside Out.
I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).
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