Actor turned writer/director Kobi Libii makes his behind the camera debut with satire The American Society of Magical Negroes, which hit Sundance prior to its March 22nd bow. It stars Justice Smith (pulling double fest duty with the well-received I Saw the TV Glow), David Alan Grier, An-Li Bogan, Drew Tarver, Michaela Watkins, Aisha Hinds, Tim Baltz, Rupert Friend, and Nicole Byer.
The reception for Society is likely not what distributor Focus Features was hoping for. The RT rating is only 42%. There’s some thematic comps to freshly minted Best Picture nominee American Fiction. However, most are saying it doesn’t approach the quality of it. Don’t expect this to be talked about a year from now for the 97th Academy Awards. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicks it off!
The Case for American Fiction:
The awards buzz for Hustle went into high gear when it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. That prize has also been bestowed to BP victors American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The satire has been nominated for BP at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes and it exceeded expectations with 5 totals noms: Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Score being the others.
The Case Against American Fiction:
It hasn’t won any of the previous BP derbies. Despite the five mentions, it missed out in key BP winning races like Director and Film Editing.
The Verdict:
American Beauty should still be the most recent BP recipient beginning the word American. Fiction‘s best hope for a statue is in the seemingly wide open Adapted Screenplay category where it emerged victorious at Critics Choice.
My Case Of posts will continue with Anatomy of a Fall…
And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.
I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/10
Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.
Director
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/5
Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.
Actress
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/5
Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/5
Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 3/5
Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5
I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.
Documentary Feature
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 3/5
This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.
Cinematography
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.
Film Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 4/5
I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.
Original Score
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.
Original Song
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 4/5
Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/5
Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.
Sound
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
How I Did: 3/5
Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.
All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Napoleon
2 Nominations
The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.
And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.
The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: The Color Purple
2nd Alternate: Saltburn
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives
2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Best Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Barbie
2nd Alternate: El Conde
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Napoleon
2nd Alternate: Maestro
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Society of the Snow
2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Original Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest
2nd Alternate: Asteroid City
Best Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.
Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/6
Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.
Actress
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 3/6
More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
How I Did: 4/6
Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/6
Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
How I Did: 2/5
Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 3/4
As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.
British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 9/10
My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.
Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
How I Did: 1/5
Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did 4/5
Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is Oppenheimer.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.
That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:
13 Noininations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
9 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro
6 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall
5 Nominations
Barbie, Saltburn
4 Nominations
Napoleon
3 Nominations
How to Have Sex, Past Lives
2 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka
I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.
Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.
Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.
That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.
Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.
Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.
I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…
This Thursday, nominations for the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as BAFTA) will be unveiled prior to its February 18th airdate. After a busy precursor frame this past week, all eyes will be on BAFTA as we finalize our Oscar forecast for the big announcement in seven days.
As I do with other precursors, I’m giving you my picks along with an alternate. With the BAFTAs, there’s a mix of numbers for the races. Most are five though directing and the acting derbies are six with ten for Outstanding British Film and 4 for Animated Feature.
Got all that? Let’s get to it!
Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flowe Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Anthony Hopkins, One Life
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: How to Have Sex
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Casting
All of Us Strangers
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Saltburn
Alternate: The Holdovers
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
British Film
All of Us Strangers
How to Have Sex
Napoleon
One Life
Poor Things
Rye Lane
Saltburn
Scrapper
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Old Oak
Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer
The End We Start From
How to Have Sex
Polite Society
Rye Lane
Scrapper
Alternate: Is There Anybody Out There?
Film Not in English Language
Anatomy of a Fall
The Boy and the Heron
Fallen Leaves
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Society of the Snow
Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Wham!
Alternate: The Pigeon Tunnel
Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Maestro
Costume Design
Barbie
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Wonka
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Barbie
Makeup and Hair
Barbie
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
Original Score
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Saltburn
Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
Special Visual Effects
The Creator
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
That works out to the following number of nominations for these films:
15 Nominations
Oppenheimer
13 Nominations
Poor Things
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Barbie
6 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon
3 Nominations
The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, One Life, Rye Lane, Scrapper, Wonka
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Color Purple, The Creator, The End We Start From, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Nimona, Polite Society, Priscilla, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!
Last Sunday, the Golden Globes were more the Oppenheimer show than a Barbenheimer love fest. One week later, the 29th Critics Choice Awards was more of a celebration for 2023’s acclaimed blockbusters that will forever be linked. Both managed to win in races I didn’t pick them in. Yet they arguably came up short in competitions where they were anticipated to emerge victorious. In addition to the impressive hardware picked up by the aforementioned pics, it was a pleasing night for The Holdovers. As for Killers of the Flower Moon or Maestro… not so much.
Barbenheimer accounted for 14 of the 21 wins this evening. That would be Oppenheimer with 8 and Barbie with 6. As for this blogger, I went 15 for 21 in my selections.
As anticipated, Oppenheimer is your Best Picture with Christopher Nolan as Best Director (just like the Globes). Same goes for Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor as he’s established himself as the favorite for Oscar. It also won Acting Ensemble and I had Barbie taking that instead. The other four trophies: Cinematography, Editing, Score, and Visual Effects. For VE, Oppenheimer shockingly missed the shortlist for the Oscars. I picked Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse for Critics Choice (it did win Animated Feature as projected). Simply put, Oppenheimer is very well positioned for Oscar’s big prize.
Moving onto Barbie, it took home Original Screenplay. As you may be aware, it is slotted in Adapted Screenplay at the Academy Awards. Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon also won Comedy, Costume Design, Hair and Makeup (in a surprise win over the favored Maestro), Production Design, and Song. In another slight shock, “I’m Just Ken” was the honored tune over “What Was Made I For?”.
As for The Holdovers, all three prominent performers in the cast went home with an engraved reminder of their attendance. Paul Giamatti is Best Actor and I picked him in a coin flip over Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer). It sets up a real race for that leading derby. Da’Vine Joy Randolph continued to solidify her dominance in Supporting Actress while Dominic Sessa is your Young Actor/Actress recipient.
We also have some drama in Best Actress. Emma Stone’s work in Poor Things won out over Globe victor Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I got that wrong and it contributed to a night where Killers came up 0 for 12.
In other races: Adapted Screenplay went to American Fiction. I thought it would be Killers and this competition at the Oscars (where Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things should also be in the mix) is unpredictable.
Anatomy of a Fall, while not in contention for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is the Foreign Language Film selection (Globes went with it too). That’s one more award to help its chance of making the ten BP nominees.
My main takeaway: Oppenheimer, Nolan, Downey Jr., and Randolph might be sweeping. Best Actor and Actress look more competitive. For the former, it’s Giamatti vs. Murphy (with Bradley Cooper in Maestro still a potential spoiler). In Actress, it’s Gladstone vs. Stone.
Keep an eye on the blog for my final Oscar predictions later this week!
Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).
And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.
In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.
An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.
Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)
Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)
Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)
Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)
Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)
Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers,Maestro
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The Producers Guild of America hold their 35th ceremony on February 25th with nominations out today. In an unexpected way, the PGA surprised us with their BP contenders.
For the two races (Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture), I went 12/15 in my picks.
For the big competition, there was general consensus that eight movies would make the cut: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things.
Oppenheimer is seen as the frontrunner with Barbie and Killers as potential threats. That octet of expected features are nominated. It’s the other two that will get the lions share of attention on social media.
The PGA, in the past, has shown an aversion to international titles. Occasionally one gets in their top ten. 2018’s Roma and 2019’s Parasite are recent examples. Yet they seemed to be outliers. Roma was the favorite to win Oscar’s BP (though it lost to Green Book). Parasite did win.
Therefore it made sense for me (and most other prognosticators) to leave out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. Instead I went with Air and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Plenty of others selected The Color Purple and it was my alternate.
Yet PGA went ahead and nominated Anatomy and Zone (causing me to go 8/10). This is the first time they’ve nominated 2 foreign pics in the same year. Surprise surprise!
And this is where it gets tricky when it comes to projecting the Academy’s Best Picture lineup. It is very rare that PGA/Oscar match. In fact, we’ve seen four years (2009, 2010, 2021, 2022) where there’s been a set 10 contenders for both shows. In 2009 – the correlation between the two was 8 for 10. In 2010 – there was the high mark of 9. For 2021, it was 8. And it was 7 last year.
Here’s the problem. The PGA 10 is currently my Oscar BP 10. Will they actually match up? Is that possible? It sure seems to be, but time will tell and let’s see if my predictions shift when I update them this weekend.
In the Animated competition, your nominees are: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.
I went 4 for 5. Mario, the highest grosser of the quintet, gets in over my pick of Wish (which was a Disney dud). Maybe I should’ve figured this guild would go with the massive blockbuster. Spidey is the safe call for victory.
I’ll have final predictions for the winners up shortly before the show!
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