Tag: America Ferrera

96th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).

Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.

As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.

Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…

Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.

Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.

Prediction: American Fiction

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.

Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Runner-Up: Society of the Snow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.

Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Four Daughters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.

Prediction: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

A very easy call for Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.

Prediction: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.

Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.

Prediction: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

BEST SOUND

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.

Prediction: The Creator

Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One

That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.

Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

2 Wins

Barbie

1 Win

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…

Oscars: The Case of Ryan Gosling in Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Half Nelson (Actor, 2006); La La Land (Actor, 2016)

The Case for Ryan Gosling:

For his third nomination and first in the supporting field, Gosling has been mentioned everywhere that counts (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice). His show stopping performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a highlight of the year’s biggest blockbuster.

The Case Against Ryan Gosling:

He’s lost all of those precursors to Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. It’s also rare for comedic performances to get victories in any of the acting derbies. Barbie underperformed a tad with omissions for Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig (though America Ferrera made the cut).

The Verdict:

I’m just saying Downey Jr. is looking solid for gold. Gosling might be runner-up, but distantly.

My Case Of posts will continue with Martin Scorsese’s direction in Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of America Ferrera in Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s America Ferrera in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for America Ferrera:

Every performer wants that obvious Oscar clip and Ferrera has it playing Gloria as the single ma tells the challenges of being a woman. That speech likely propelled the Globe, SAG, and Emmy winner for TV’s Ugly Betty to her first Academy nod. Alongside fellow nominee Ryan Gosling, she was singled out for plaudits in Greta Gerwig’s billion plus grossing phenomenon. A Critics Choice mention preceded this.

The Case Against America Ferrera:

Ferrera didn’t make the cut at SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes (unlike Gosling) and the acting branch didn’t recognize lead Margot Robbie. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won the key precursors so far and stands as the favorite.

The Verdict:

I wouldn’t bet on Ferrera making a speech from the podium on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Barbie:

If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Case Against Barbie:

Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.

The Verdict:

One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

96th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.

I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…

Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/10

Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.

Director

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/5

Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.

Actress

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/5

Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/5

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 3/5

Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5

I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.

International Feature Film

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 3/5

This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.

Cinematography

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.

Film Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 4/5

I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.

Original Score

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.

Original Song

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 4/5

Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/5

Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.

Sound

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.

Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

How I Did: 3/5

Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.

All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Napoleon

2 Nominations

The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).

And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.

In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.

An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.

Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)

Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)

Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)

Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Suzume (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Peasants (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wish (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)

7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)

8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)

Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)

10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)

Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)

Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)

Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Past Lives

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

29th Critics Choice Awards Predictions

On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.

Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!

Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Actress

Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Acting Ensemble

Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)

PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Comedy

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: American Fiction

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish

PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Cinematography

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Editing

Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Makeup

Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla

PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Production Design

Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Score

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Song

Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

That works out to the following wins for these movies:

6 Wins

Barbie, Oppenheimer

3 Wins

The Holdovers

2 Wins

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Win

Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things

30th Annual SAG Awards: Nominations Reaction

A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.

I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

How I Did: 3/5

A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).

While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 4/5

Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/5

Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

How I Did: 3/5

This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

How I Did: 3/5

This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.

You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!

96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 6th Edition

We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.

As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.

You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.

You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)

2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Society of the Snow

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godland

The Monk and the Gun

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Suzume (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wish (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

American Fiction

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.

In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.

I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)

10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge