The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).
Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.
After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.
The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.
Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.
Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.
My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Nia Long, Michael
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:
2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago
2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt
2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter
2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help
2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.
A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.
Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.
Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.
Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.
One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!
The Lost Bus found its way to the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 19th limited theatrical release and October 3rd Apple TV streaming debut. The true life wildfire survival tale comes from Paul Greengrass (the Bourne franchise, United 93, Captain Phillips) with Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrara headlining. Yul Vazquez and Ashlie Atkinson costar.
The 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating is a little deceiving with the 66 on Metacritic more accurately reflecting the critical consensus. McConaughey (a 2013 Best Actor victor for Dallas Buyers Club) and Ferrera (a Supporting Actress nominee in 2023 for Barbie) are being appreciated for their performances, but not enough to anticipate their second tries at gold. Where Bus could be in sole contention is in Visual Effects. If it manages to make the shortlist, it might be a trendy pick for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!
I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.
Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.
Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.
As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.
Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me fromNowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)
17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)
18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. After the Hunt
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. Sorry, Baby
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. The Secret Agent
10. Ann Lee
11. Rental Family
12. Ella McCay
13. Is This Thing On?
14. Nouvelle Vague
15. A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hamnet
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. One Battle After Another
5. No Other Choice
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein
7. Wicked: For Good
8. The Life of Chuck
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Train Dreams
11. Die, My Love
12. Late Fame
13. Highest 2 Lowest
14. Hedda
15. The Smashing Machine
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. The President’s Cake
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirát
7. Sound of Falling
8. Left-Handed Girl
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2
2. Arco
3. Elio
4. Scarlet
5. In Your Dreams
Other Possibilities:
6. Animal Farm
7. A Magnificent Life
8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain
9. KPop Demon Hunters
10. Ne Zha 2
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Seeds
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. Deaf President Now!
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
9. The Six Billion Dollar Man
10. The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. After the Hunt
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly
7. Marty Supreme
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Bugonia
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Rivals of Amziah King
Other Possibilities:
6. F1
7. Sentimental Value
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman
5. Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Lee
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8. Mother Mary
9. Snow White
10. One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Bugonia
5. F1
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt
7. Wicked: For Good
8. One Battle After Another
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later
7. Bugonia
8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Wolf Man
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Bugonia
3. After the Hunt
4. Frankenstein
5. Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another
7. F1
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Rivals of Amziah King
10. Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. TBD from Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
10. TBD from Mother Mary
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia
7. One Battle After Another
8. Marty Supreme
9. The Phoenician Scheme
10. Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Warfare
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman
9. Frankenstein
10. Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Frankenstein
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
7. F1
8. How to Train Your Dragon
9. Tron: Ares
10. Sinners
Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
After the Hunt
7 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
6 Nominatons
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominatons
F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare
As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.
While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.
I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.
The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)
17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)
21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)
24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sound of Falling
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)
Best Actress
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)
11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)
14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)
In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.
My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)
18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)
20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)
21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)
22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)
24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)
13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, Vie privée
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Nia Long, Michael
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:
We move to Supporting Actress. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee and that’s Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. The eventual winner Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) as well as Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. Last year in April 2024, I had Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) slotted in Supporting Actress in Other Possibilities. She ended up going lead and nabbing a nod.
This premiere posts projects Erivo’s costar Ariana Grande will be a repeat nominee for Wicked: For Good. I’m also forecasting that Gwyneth Paltrow will return to the awards mix over a quarter century behind her Shakespeare in Love Actress victory.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.
The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).
Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You ThereGod? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29 –
4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anora
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.
Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Conclave
7 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
My very first glimpse of the acting races, Director, and Picture for the 97th Academy Awards reaches Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it here:
When I did my initial speculation for this competition in 2023 (just about a year ago), it yielded one eventual nominee and that was Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers in addition to fellow nominee Jodie Foster (Nyad). I did not identify Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) or America Ferrera (Barbie) at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Performers listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress.
This premiere post highlights plenty of veteran thespians with previous noms. It is worth noting that none of them are previous victors. We also have some newcomers to the awards scene.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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