January 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Avatar: Fire and Ash should finally relinquish its box office crown after four weeks to 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic franchise here:

Bone follows 28 Years Later by only seven months. While I don’t envision it matching the $30 million start achieved by its predecessor, my $20M projection has it leading the way over Avatar which should see a lower to mid teens gross.

Holdovers should populate the rest of the top 5. I will note the possibility that anime flick All You Need is Kill could make the cut in its domestic debut, but I’m not doing an estimate since I haven’t seen a theater count. If that dynamic changes and I feel it could make the high five, I’ll update. Same goes for the expansion of freshly minted Golden Globe Best Drama recipient Hamnet.

This is MLK weekend though I’m only predicting the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the frame. You usually see smaller drops for leftover titles during this time period. Primate seems poised for the biggest dip. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

Predicted Gross: $20.1 million

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Primate

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (January 9-11)

Avatar: Fire and Ash made it a four-peat with $21.5 million, on track with my $20 million call. That brings the third offering in James Cameron’s epic series to $342 million thus far.

Primate scored the highest debut of the newcomers (something I incorrectly forecasted) with $11.1 million in second. The monkey gone wild tale topped my $9.7 million prediction for a respectable start.

The Housemaid continued its meager drops in third with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8.2 million guesstimate. The buzzy thriller is nearing nine digits with $93 million in the bank.

Zootopia 2 was fourth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) to bring its gargantuan haul to $378 million with $400 million domestic easily in its sights.

Gerard Butler action sequel Greenland 2: Migration struggled in fifth with $8.4 million compared to my $12.9 million prediction. I wrongly thought it would place second.

Finally, Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On? didn’t stand out with audiences. In its wide expansion, it was 11th with $2.3 million. I went a tad higher at $2.6 million and it’s made $3.4 million total when factoring its limited release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…