Focused on the brave legal battle against the title nation’s brutal dictatorship, Argentina, 1985 premiered at the Venice Film Festival prior to its limited release Friday. An Amazon Prime streaming release is October 21st. The historical drama comes from director Santiago Mitre with a cast including prolific Argentine star Ricardo Darin, Peter Lanzani, Alejandra Flechner, and Norman Briski.
Reviews from Italy were strong and it stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. The native country has unsurprisingly selected it as their submission for International Feature Film at the Oscars. In 2009, Argentina’s The Secret in Their Eyes won that race. Their last nominee was 2014’s Wild Tales.
The international race already has some potential heavy hitters like Decision to Leave, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Close. Yet 1985‘s initial reaction makes it a possibility to make the eventual quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The French cinematic community had some choices as to which pic to submit for their International Feature Film contender at the Oscars. There’s critically appreciated efforts such as Mia Hansen-Love’s One Fine Morning and Romain Gavras’s Athena. Yet they (unsurprisingly) went with Alice Diop’s Saint Omer. Making her first non-documentary film, Diop has already garnered buzz for the legal drama.
Omer received the Grand Jury Prize at the Venice Film Festival (basically the fest’s second place award). That positive reaction continued in Toronto and it holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%.
2015’s Mustang and 2019’s Les Miserables are the only two French IFF hopefuls of the past decade. I currently have Omer listed in fourth position behind Decision to Leave, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Close. It’s a long shot to win, but it has a great shot to make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
So I wasn’t planning to do a new predictions post just five days after the last one, but a lot can change in five days! When I made those previous picks, I was sitting in my hotel room in Toronto getting ready to return to United States. On this inaugural trip to the festival, I saw awards hopefuls including The Fabelmans, Women Talking, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Son.
The headline this afternoon is a shocker that’s resulted in universal confusion. Michelle Williams, considered to be a lock for Supporting Actress, will be campaigned for in lead Actress by Universal Pictures. I am doubly surprised because, having seen the film, there would be zero controversy with her in the supporting field. In fact, I would say it is more of a supporting performance than lead. Furthermore, a Williams victory seemed likely in the race she won’t be in. Best Actress is an entirely different ball game with Cate Blanchett (Tar), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Margot Robbie (Babylon), and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light). Nevertheless I’ll slot Williams in third place and she knocks out Danielle Deadwyler for the as yet unseen Till. There’s another dynamic potentially at play. Two years ago, Lakeith Stanfield was being touted in Best Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. The Academy went ahead and nominated him in Supporting Actor. Don’t discount the idea that this could happen with Williams though I won’t predict that.
This Williams news isn’t the only unexpected developments of the week. RRR, RMN, and Godland were all ignored by their native countries as their submissions to the International Feature Film derby. There’s reporting that India’s RRR, in particular, will get a spirited campaign for Best Picture and tech races. Yet IFF was probably its strongest chance to show up on Oscar night.
In other developments:
An alteration in BP as I’m putting Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave in over Empire of Light. I’ll be honest – this was basically a coin flip between Decision to Leave or All Quiet on the Western Front. This also results in Chan-wook making the director cut over Todd Field for Tar.
Due to the Williams news, Claire Foy is the new #1 in Supporting Actress for Women Talking. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) also joins the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Babylon) is back in the mix due to the removal of Micheal Ward for Empire of Light.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Whale (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 13) (+2)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
4. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, The Wonder
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (moved to Best Actress)
Nina Hoss, Tar
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bros (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)
5. Strange World (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Eight Mountains (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (-3)
9. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Plan 75 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
RMN
RRR
Best Documentary Feature:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Riotsville, U.S.A. (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Whale
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Corsage (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Northman
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tar (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Triangle of Sadness
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. X (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
The Fabelmans
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Tar (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Batman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bardo (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nope (PR: 10) (+2)
9. RRR (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
And this equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
3 Nominations
Decision to Leave
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tar, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Eight Mountains, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
92 years ago, Lewis Milestone’s war epic All Quiet on the Western Front became just the third movie to win Best Picture at the Oscars. After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival before its October 28th Netflix stream, the latest version could attract Academy attention as well. The German production comes from director Edward Berger with a cast including Daniel Bruhl, Albrecht Schuch, Sebastian Hulk, and Aaron Hilmer.
Its native country has already named it as their submission for International Feature Film. Critical reaction is positive across the board with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. In particular, the World War I tale is being praised for tech aspects.
Along with South Korea’s Decision to Leave, I believe Quiet is pretty close to a sure thing for the IFF category. Yet it could branch out beyond that. We’ve seen a trend lately of Best Director nominees representing their foreign features. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car). In the first two cases, their film didn’t even make the Best Picture cut. This could happen with Berger or Decision‘s Park Chan-wook.
The possibilities don’t end there. Adapted Screenplay looks quite open for slot availability. The aforementioned down the line chances to make the final five include Cinematography, Editing, and Sound. It’s just as possible that Quiet only makes noise in IFF, but it could contend in multiple competitions including BP. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As the Toronto Film Festival draws to a close, we have some significant updates since I did my last predictions 11 days ago!
And you may notice that, for the first time, I’m including all categories covering feature films. It’s the initial peek at what pics I believe will lead the nominations. The answer is Babylon (11) followed closely by The Fabelmans (10) followed closely by Everything Everywhere All at Once (9).
I’ve also made the shift of whittling 25 BP picks down to 15 possibilities and the other big races from 15 to 10.
I will point out that some categories (particularly Original Song) are in their infancy as far as knowing the contenders.
One year ago, my projections in mid-September yielded eight of the eventual 10 BP nominees and 3 of the 5 Directing hopefuls. For Best Actress – it was 4 of 5 and 3 of 5 for Actor. For Supporting Actress – 2/5, but Supporting Actor (somehow) was 0 for 5.
Let’s talk changes:
In Best Picture, I’m putting Empire of Light back in and removing The Son. You’ll send a trend there as The Son drew divided reactions in Venice and Toronto. It could still contend in more races than just Hugh Jackman in Actor, but for now, I’ve got it nabbing that sole nod.
Todd Field (Tar) is in the directing quintet over Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness.
Surprisingly enough, Actress and Actor remain the same.
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) crashes the Supporting Actress party with Vanessa Kirby (The Son) dropping.
I’ve put Micheal Ward back in Supporting Actor (I elevated him to lead recently). He’s in the final five along with a bit of an upset selection in Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin. Zen McGrath (The Son) and Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) fall out.
Original Screenplay remains the same but Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is in Adapted Screenplay over (you guessed it) The Son.
You can peruse all the movement below and my inaugural take on the other derbies!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 20) (+6)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Avatar: The Way of Water
White Noise
Bones and All
Armageddon Time
Till
Broker
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Living
Bardo
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Florian Zeller, The Son
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Taylor Russell, Bones and All
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Song King-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Supporting)
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier
Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+5)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Samantha Morton, She Said
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zen McGrath, The Son
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Anthony Hopkins, The Son
Mark Strong, Tar
Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Babylon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bros (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Aftersun
Cha Cha Real Smooth
Bardo
The Menu
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Son (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Living (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Lost King
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
The Wonder
Elvis
The Good Nurse
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Strange World
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild
7. The Bad Guys
8. Lightyear
9. My Father’s Dragon
10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. Holy Spider
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. RMN
8. RRR
9. Plan 75
10. Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Descendant
3. Navalny
4. Fire of Love
5. Last Flight Home
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory
7. Moonage Daydream
8. Riotsville, U.S.A.
9. Good Night Oppy
10. All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Banshees of Inisherin
9. The Whale
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Elvis
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Woman King
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing
9. The Northman
10. Corsage
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Babylon
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Fabelmans
5. Women Talking
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis
7. Tar
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale
2. Babylon
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Blonde
8. The Woman King
9. The Fabelmans
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Empire of Light
4. Women Talking
5. Tar
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Avatar: The Way of Water
9. The Batman
10. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Empire of Light
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once
8. Bardo
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Babylon
4. Elvis
5. The Batman
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. Nope
10. The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. The Batman
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. RRR
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. Nope
And that equates to this very first rundown of how many nominations I am projecting for each picture:
11 Nominations
Babylon
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans’
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Holy Spider, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, Saint Omer, The Sea Beast, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
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