As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Jeremy Strong:
As Donald Trump’s attorney and fixer Roy Cohn, Strong flexed his acting muscle and it resulted in nominations at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards.
The Cast Against Jeremy Strong:
He missed the cut at Critics Choice. Most importantly, Strong’s Succession costar Kieran Culkin has swept the season with his performance in A Real Pain.
The Verdict:
There will be almost certainly be a Succession actor winning Supporting Actor on Sunday night. It almost certainly will not be Strong.
My Case Of posts will conclude with the final hopeful in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other Actor nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Sebastian Stan:
As Donald Trump building out his real estate career, Stan embodied the future President with BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations in tow.
The Case Against Sebastian Stan:
Making the Oscar quintet was a question mark since he probably split votes with his other heralded 2024 work in A Different Man. For that role, he took home the Golden Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy) while losing the Actor in a Drama prize and the BAFTA to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Stan did not make the cut at Critics Choice or SAG.
The Verdict:
Brody and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are out front and Stan is not considered a threat to either of them.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Supporting Actress and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez…
Briarcliff Entertainment is banking on audiences being fired up for The Apprentice when it opens October 11th. The biopic from Ali Abbasi focuses on Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump being mentored in the 70s and 80s by ruthless lawyer Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). Maria Bakalova (as first wife Ivana) and Martin Donovan (as patriarch Fred Trump) costar.
After its premiere at Cannes, it was questionable whether The Apprentice would debut stateside before the November 5th election. The former POTUS and current GOP candidate’s legal team threatened to block its pathway in multiplexes. A distribution deal was reached in August and here we are. Reviews are mostly of thumbs up variety at 76% on RT and 60 on Metacritic. Reactions probably aren’t strong enough to make it a Best Picture contender though Stan and Strong could be in the mix for nods.
The Apprentice‘s biggest hurdle could be a longstanding aversion to political pics when it’s all over TV. For example, 2008’s W. from Oliver Stone underwhelmed with $25 million domestically. Viewers may certainly feel they see enough of the 45th President on their home airwaves.
With a reported theater count of under 1800, this may only reach low single digits.
The Apprentice opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).
The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.
While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.
Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)
20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)
22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)
14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Andrea Arnold, Bird
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Awards prospects for Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice might have less to do with today’s Cannes premiere or whatever date the eventual distributor places it for domestic release. November 5th might be the biggest factor in whether it gets various nominations. That’s the date of the Presidential election and Oscar voters could react based on the results of whether the 45th POTUS becomes the 47th POTUS.
Set in the 1970s and 80s, this is essentially a Donald Trump origin story about ruthless attorney Roy Cohn’s influence on his life. Sebastian Stan is Trump with Jeremy Strong as Cohn. Costars include Maria Bakalova as Ivana and Martin Donovan as family patriarch Fred.
Reviews trickling in from France are somewhat all over the map. Yet compliments for the men playing Trump and Cohn is mostly universal. Mr. Stan’s biggest competition for a final five slot in Actor could be himself as he’s also being lauded for A Different Man. It rolled out at Sundance and is slated for a September domestic bow. Strong, an Emmy winner for Succession, could book his first Academy recognition in Supporting Actor. In fact, he might be in competition with his costar/onscreen sibling from that acclaimed HBO show in Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain). As for Bakalova, a previous nominee for the Borat sequel in 2020, her role is probably too small to contend.
If Stan and Strong are up for their roles, it greatly increases the chances of BP inclusion despite the varying reactions. I am skeptical that Abbasi (maker of international critical darlings Border and Holy Spider) or the screenplay are up (the latter would be more feasible). Yet it might be the general election ballot that ultimately chooses the viability of The Apprentice. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.
Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.
I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.
In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.
I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)
18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)
19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Hard Truths
SNL 1975
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)
15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)
12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.
Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.
Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.
Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.
Here’s how I have it shaking out now!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)
23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)
24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)
25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Wicked
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Wang, Dídi
Alex Garland, Civil War
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)
9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
Adam Driver, Megalopolis
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)
13.Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. Dídi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, Dídi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
13. Zendaya, Challengers
14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Barry Keoghan, Bird
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. André Holland, The Actor
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. George MacKay, The End
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joan Chen, Dídi
2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz
4. Lesley Manville, Queer
5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
5. Leigh Gill, Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
8. Drew Starkey, Queer
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
11. John Lithgow, Conclave
12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing
14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez
As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
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