The nation of Tunisia has seen only one of their pictures nominated for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars and that was 2020’s The ManWho Sold His Skin. Kaouther Ben Hania was the director and her follow-up is The Voice of Hind Rajab, which has premiered at Venice and will soon play in Toronto. Focused on the true story of a five-year-old’s killing in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it has already been announced as Tunisia’s entrant for IFF.
Critical reaction thus far has resulted in a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes and the praise in Venice has been effusive including a reported 23 minute ovation. Executive producers on the project include Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, and Alfonso Cuaròn. It is fair to assume that Voice will receive a major campaign from its as yet unannounced distributor. The international category already has plenty of viable contenders including frontrunner Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent to name just four. Even with that caveat, the Academy may not be able to ignore this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Director quintet and it starts with Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. Let’s get to it!
Previous Directing Nominations:
None
The Case for Jonathan Glazer:
The English filmmaker’s fourth feature comes after three acclaimed predecessors: 2001’s Sexy Beast, 2004’s Birth, and 2014’s Under the Skin. The Holocaust drama is the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film and had a solid showing with five nominations. He hopes to follow in the footsteps of other directors in recent years who took the prize along with IFF like Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).
The Case Against Jonathan Glazer:
Cuaròn and Joon-ho didn’t have to compete against the juggernaut that is Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. He is the far and away favorite. Glazer managed a BAFTA mention, but didn’t make the cut for Critics Choice, the Globes, or DGA.
The Verdict:
Barring a massive upset, Nolan towers over all competitors.
My Case Of posts will continue with Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon…
Steve McQueen’s Occupied City, based on buzz out of Cannes, may not be the best documentary we’ll see in 2023. It certainly sounds like it’s the most documentary. Clocking in at about four and a half hours, it tells dual stories of Amsterdam from its Nazi occupation in WWII and its last few years during the pandemic.
A decade ago, the filmmaker’s 12 Years a Slave was crowned Best Picture (while McQueen himself lost the directorial race to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity). His lone theatrical follow-up is 2018’s Widows. McQueen’s anthology series Small Axe from 2020 was critically heralded on the small screen and the historical drama Blitz with Saorise Ronan is on the way.
The plaudits for his body of work hasn’t fully extended to City. The Rotten Tomatoes meter early on is 67%. A common complaint is its length and stodginess. I don’t see this occupying one of the five spots in Documentary Feature a few months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The National Society of Film Critics, composed of approximately 60 reviewers, is considered one of the higher profile groups to bestow yearly best of honors. They did so today and it was a good day for Todd Field’s Tár.
NSFC was enthralled by the psychological profile as it won Best Film in addition to Fields for his screenplay and Cate Blanchett in the title role. In its previous 56 years, the Film recipient here has only matched the Oscar BP nine times. It is worth noting that it’s occurred 4 out of the last 7 years with 2015’s Spotlight, 2016’s Moonlight, 2019’s Parasite, and 2020’s Nomadland. 7 of the past 10 NSFC victors were at least nominated for BP from the Academy. That bodes well for Tár. At this point, it would be pretty shocking if it was left off the list of 10 on Oscar nom morning.
This group also names runners-up. For Best Film, it was Aftersun. Director Charlotte Wells came in first in her race with Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) in second. I’ve yet to seriously consider Aftersun as a top 10 finisher at the big dance. It’s possible, but perhaps a stretch. Only two of the NSFC winners in the previous decade took Oscar with Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Chloe Zhao (Nomadland).
Blanchett’s trophy is no surprise. The other strong hopeful for Best Actress is Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once. She came in second. It’s worth mentioning that Blanchett won NSFC nine years ago for Blue Jasmine before translating that to her second Oscar. A third could be in the cards.
The lead Actor award went to Colin Farrell for both After Yang and The Banshees of Inisherin. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was runner-up. Farrell looks assured a spot in the Academy quintet (for Banshees) while Mescal is gunning for a wide open fifth spot. You have to go back to 2016 (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) to find the previous NSFC/Oscar match.
Our Supporting Actress derby (also pretty wide open) went to the soft frontrunner with Kerry Condon in Banshees. Nina Hoss (Tár) nabbed the second most votes. If there’s an unexpected performer to pop up on nomination morning, it could be Hoss (especially given the uncertainty of her category).
It was smooth sailing for Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor as he continued his expected coronation as the season rolls along. The Everything Everywhere All at Once standout beat Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), who’s a bubble possibility for Oscar.
Polish pic EO is your Best Film Not in the English Language with No Bears (out of Iran) second. The latter was not submitted for the Academy’s consideration. EO also took home an unanticipated win for its Cinematography with Nope as the runner-up.
Finally, Best Nonfiction Film was All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with Descendant second. Both are expected to contend for the Documentary cut at the Oscars.
We are in the heart of awards season, folks! My final prediction for the Golden Globes are coming your way next…
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