Sony is banking on rom com fans making a holiday trek to Anyone but You when it debuts December 22nd. A modern take on Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, Will Gluck directs Sydney Sweeney (of Euphoria fame) and Glen Powell (of Top Gun: Maverick fame). Costars include Alexandra Shipp, GaTa, Hadley Robinson, Michelle Hurd, Dermot Mulroney, Rachel Griffiths, and Bryan Brown.
The studio has been heavily promoting their product, but Sweeney and Powell (despite their previous high profile projects) aren’t exactly known to open a picture. Barring an unexpectedly heavy female turnout, this should struggle out of the gate. From its Friday start through Monday (Christmas Day), the best case scenario is probably $10 million. Mid single digits seems more likely.
Anyone but You opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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Greta Gerwig’s Barbie is never dull and it is a triumph of Dream House production design with exquisite casting. Cowriting with her partner Noah Baumbach, the screenplay is home to some great gags and eventually some emotionally inspired sections. It stumbles occasionally in sketchy territory that seems more in place as a mid-level SNL sketch (with some of the show’s vets performing the material). With Margot Robbie as the classic or “stereotypical” Barbie and Ryan Gosling as a version of Ken who believes his profession is “Beach” (where he spends his days), their chemistry clicks as they explore lands ruled by matriarchy and patriarchy.
The comedy around them can sputter in one scene and pop in the next. This is a satire of corporatism and critique of gender identities that wouldn’t exist without that Mattel cooperation. It has its own well-worn cliches present about the Venus and Mars divisions. Venus is Barbieland here while Mars is the world we know. Gerwig and Baumbach are dealing with a tricky balance and the fact that this mostly succeeds is an impressive achievement.
We meet Robbie’s Barbie in Barbieland where every night is Girls Night (!) alongside President Barbie (Issa Rae), Writer Barbie (Alexandra Shipp), and plenty of others professionals. These women rule the joint while Ken and his fellow Kens (they include Simu Liu and Kingsley Ben-Adir) beach during the day and pine for their respective Barbies at night. In one funny revelation, it is said that the women literally have no clue where the Kens stay at night (they do not own dream dwellings).
Our lead Barbie’s blissful existence ends when she starts thinking of death. Soon her perfectly perched feet fall flat and cellulite emerges. These real world problems are due to Earthly interference. She doesn’t want to become like Weird Barbie (Kate McKinnon), whose physical traits resemble a demented child being creative with her doll parts. Barbie must travel to the Real World which she assumes puts females in the same leadership positions as Barbieland. Gosling’s Ken sneaks along for the ride.
Their journey introduces them to single mom Gloria (America Ferrera) and teen daughter (Ariana Greenblatt). Mom works for Mattel, which is entirely run by males including Will Ferrell’s CEO. She has her own ideas for Barbie iterations and that may be causing Robbie’s imperfections. While she deals with the patriarchy ruling the land, Ken revels in it and soon brings that superior attitude back to Barbieland. A buoyant battle for the sexes follows.
Barbie improves as it goes along. It manages to mostly earn the moving moments that populate the final act. I suspect some of the broader material could’ve been cut down. For example, Ferrell and his band of execs don’t really add much. Yet I dug McKinnon as the oddly configured Weird Barbie. This is an experience where we have Gosling stealing scenes with hilarity and Ferrera doing the same with heartier stuff. Robbie is in the middle of it and she is smartly cast (narrator Helen Mirren has a moment of snarky meta fun commenting on her incredible beauty). There’s plenty to ponder in the politics of Barbie, but maybe not thinking about it too hard is the way to go. The same logic can be applied to Ken’s out of place friend Allan (Michael Cera). He doesn’t really belong, but I enjoyed him. Same goes for the movie where our central character is figuring out where she belongs.
One of 2023’s most anticipated titles is out Friday with Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and the review embargo has lifted for the Mattel property. The box office expectations have steadily risen in recent weeks and I’ve got it nearly reaching $130 million out of the gate. Margot Robbie is, of course, the title character with Ryan Gosling as Ken. The sprawling supporting players include America Ferrera, Rhea Perlman, Will Ferrell, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Helen Mirren.
It could be said that the embargo has been eagerly awaited as well. With 70 write-ups in at publication press, the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at a robust 90%. Even when the trailers debuted, we could see awards potential in a few technical races. This includes Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Costume Design. Expect it to be in contention for all three.
The bigger question is whether it plays beyond the down the line races. Gerwig cowrote wrote the screenplay with her partner Noah Baumbach. Many reviews hone in on the clever take for the iconic IP and Adapted Screenplay seems like the most likely major category nod. If Barbie is a moneymaking behemoth (and especially if it holds decently after an expected humongous start), Best Picture and Director mentions are feasible. I’ll note that Gerwig’s two previous pics – 2017’s Lady Bird and 2019’s Little Women – both landed BP slots.
As for the performances, both Robbie in Actress and Gosling in Supporting Actor are doable. This would be the former’s third nod after 2017’s I, Tonya and 2019’s Bombshell (for supporting) and the latter’s third behind 2006’s Half Nelson and 2016’s La La Land. Based on early buzz, I see Gosling as more probable than Robbie. However, we need to see how much competition emerges in the fall. There should be plenty considering that’s when the bulk of Oscar hopefuls debut. America Ferrera is also drawing some raves for her work so we shall see if WB makes a push for her in Supporting Actress.
Lastly, Billie Eilish has the tune “What Was I Made For?” and it may be the soundtrack’s entry in Original Song. As you may recall, she won the gold statue in that race in 2021 for her title track “No Time to Die”. It will be interesting to see if Warner Bros also mounts a campaign for “I’m Just Ken”, sung by Gosling.
Bottom line: the right combo of critical praise and box office bucks could propel Barbie to plenty of nominations. Another path could involve some tech stuff and the script. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $127.8M to $160.8M
After a lengthy development process, the eagerly anticipated live-action Barbie seeks to pack movie houses on July 21st. Greta Gerwig, coming off two Best Picture nominees in a row with Lady Bird and Little Women, directs with Margot Robbie as the iconic Mattel creation and Ryan Gosling as Ken. The large supporting cast (some playing variations of the leading dolls) includes America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Rhea Perlman, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Will Ferrell. Once a vehicle for Amy Schumer and then Anne Hathaway, the reported $100 million production tapped Robbie four summers ago for the high profile project.
It goes without saying that the toy line dating back to 1959 has seen generations of consumers. Warner Bros is banking that crowds of all ages for the PG-13 rated pic will turn up. While it should certainly skew female, all demographics are expected to be represented.
Barbie has also been the benefactor of extra publicity due to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer debuting on the same day. Dubbed “Barbenheimer” all over social media, the premiere of two awards and blockbuster hopefuls only adds to the hoopla.
The breakout potential seems quite real and buzz has been growing steadily since the trailer and other forms of exposure. Initial estimates were in the $55-$70 million vicinity, rose to $80-$100 million, and are now looking to top $100 million. I’m inclined to say it manages nine digits with room to spare.
If at first you don’t succeed, try and fail again. Dark Phoenix is the 12th feature in the X-Men universe. It continues the significant dip in quality that we witnessed in predecessor X-Men: Apocalypse. While it’s not necessarily worse, the mystique of this franchise was pierced last time around and the bloodshed continues here. We also have Jennifer Lawrence as Mystique and, like in Apocalypse, it seems she’d rather be elsewhere.
Like 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, this is focused on Jean Grey’s origin story. A 1975 flashback shows how she became an orphan and it’s got a lot to do with her telekinetic mutant powers. We already know that Charles Xavier (James McAvoy) quickly brought her into School for Gifted Youngsters after a tragedy and she grows up to be played by Sophie Turner. By 1992, Jean’s abilities are accentuated in outer space while rescuing a group of astronauts with her colleagues. It also triggers some repressed memories, putting her at odds with her mentor. That’s not the only collateral damage from Jean’s galactic adventures. An alien race known as the D’Bari had their planet inadvertently destroyed by this particular gifted youngster. Jessica Chastain is Vuk, an extra-terrestrial leader looking to harness those gifts for her own use. Like Oscar Isaac in Apocalypse, Chastain represents another talented performer wasted in a forgettable villain role.
While X-Men: First Class had cheeky fun with its 60s setting and Days of Future Past grooved to a 70s vibe, Phoenix does nothing with the early 90s time frame (other than not aging the actors appropriately). Even Apocalypse tried to capitalize on the 80s retro craze.
Missed opportunities to dwell on a decade and boring baddies aren’t the worst problem. Jean Grey isn’t a compelling character in her own film and Turner’s bland acting shines that light brighter. When Michael Fassbender shows up from time to time, it’s a reminder that his island getaway and small army of followers might offer up a cooler storyline. I know that comic book lovers hold the Dark Phoenix Saga in high regard, but they’e been given the short shrift twice now. Maybe Fassbender, his effortless magnetism, and the backstory of his current circumstances might have more firepower.
This is Simon Kinberg’s first at bat directing the series. He is responsible for writing The Last Stand so he’s .000 with the Grey matter. I guess he’s .250 on his X screenplays as he also penned Apocalypse but had a hit with Days of Future Past. Some of the violent encounters are dimly presented and plenty of the CG is subpar. A final set piece aboard a train has the most competent technical work and random moments of effective action. That doesn’t come close to saving this. The X-Men have been off the rails for two movies in a row.
Out in limited release tomorrow before its Netflix premiere on November 19, Tick, Tick… Boom! marks the long awaited big screen directorial debut of Lin-Manuel Miranda. The Hamilton sensation already has the EGT (Emmy, Grammy, Tony) in the EGOT (the O is for Oscar obviously) and he has multiple projects in 2021 to contend for it.
Tick is an adaptation of Jonathan Larson’s own autobiographical Off Broadway musical and features Andrew Garfield portraying the late creator of Rent. Having screened at the AFI Fest, reviews are trickling in. Some of the critical reaction is not overly gushing, but there’s enough praise that it could contend in multiple races. First and foremost is Best Actor with Garfield and I’m feeling more confident that he could snag one of the five spots. If so, it would mark his second nod five years after Hacksaw Ridge. His chances in lead, in my view, are greater than in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Garfield’s inclusion is the only competition where I’m relatively confident. That said, the Academy could fall for Miranda’s first foray behind the camera and that could open up Picture and maybe even Supporting Actor (where Robin de Jesus is generating some solid ink). I don’t look for much chatter for remaining supporting cast which includes Alexandra Shipp, Vanessa Hudgens, Judith Light, and Bradley Whitford. I’m also skeptical Adapted Screenplay comes into the mix, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Miranda’s strongest shot at his own nomination could come with another project: Disney’s upcoming animated Encanto in the Original Song derby. In the Heights, the reworking of his acclaimed play that faltered at the box office over the summer, has seen its prospects dim.
Bottom line: Garfield has likely played his way into Best Actor while attention elsewhere seems questionable. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
From the directors of the BadMoms pics, Jexi dials into theaters next weekend and is hoping for a decent reception. The comedy stars Adam DeVine as a loner obsessed with his phone. When he gets an upgrade that includes Rose Byrne voicing the title character/feature, life begins to improve until the artificially intelligent being develops an obsession with him. Costars include Alexandra Shipp, Michael Pena, Justin Hartley, and Wanda Sykes.
I have a hunch Jexi will have a tough time connecting with filmgoers. As far as its effectiveness via trailer and TV spots, I’m getting a bit of a Stuber vibe. That comedy with Kumail Nanjiani stalled over the summer with just an $8.2 million opening weekend. And one could argue Nanjiani has more drawing ability than DeVine.
Considering that, I’ll say this will be lucky to reach that number and won’t do so.
The third generation of the Shaft family debuts in theaters next weekend with Jessie Usher playing an FBI agent in the action pic. Arriving nearly 50 years after Richard Roundtree played John Shaft and almost two decades after Samuel L. Jackson played his nephew, both actors are present in the newest iteration. Tim Story (maker of the RideAlong pics) directs with a supporting cast including Alexandra Shipp, Regina Hall, and Method Man.
Reportedly made for a smallish $30 million budget, the studio behind Shaft would love to match the $21 million opening weekend debut of the 2000 Jackson led summer flick. Tracking puts in right in that range. However, we’ve seen reboots disappoint in 2019.
I’ll say this gets to mid to high teens and considering the price tag, that’s not too shabby.
Shaft opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million
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Closing out the latest chapter of the X-Men Universe that began in 2011, DarkPhoenix rises or falls in theaters next weekend. The fourth official entry in the current franchise iteration is a direct sequel to 2016’s X–Men: Apocalypse. This one is focused more on the Jean Grey character played by Sophie Turner, but it brings back Jennifer Lawrence as Mystique, James McAvoy as Charles Xavier, and Michael Fassbender as Magneto. The familiar cast additionally includes Nicholas Hoult, Tye Sheridan, Alexandra Shipp, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Evan Peters with Jessica Chastain joining the fray for the first time. Simon Kinberg, responsible for penning three previous X pics, makes his directorial debut.
Phoenix comes at a time where the franchise is going through a major transition. With Disney’s recent acquisition of Fox, it is believed the X-Men characters will be cast anew and melded with the vaunted Marvel Cinematic Universe at some juncture. The series is coming off Apocalypse, which didn’t impress critics and had a $155 million overall domestic gross that ranked well under predecessor DaysofFuturePast. The next X title (spin-off TheNewMutants) is out next spring and has been delayed on numerous occasions.
Anticipation seems muted here. Phoenix has the very real possibility of having the lowest premiere ever in the franchise’s history. That distinction for a non spin-off currently belongs to the 2000 original, which started with $54 million (not adjusted for inflation). Just below that is 2013’s TheWolverine at $53 million.
The opportunity for Disney to reinvigorate the series is coming, but I’ll project this latest entry will mark an overall low in earnings.
DarkPhoenix opening weekend prediction: $45.3 million
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Sony Pictures is hoping ADog’sWayHome will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made DolphinTale and its sequel, directs.
When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, ADog’sPurpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, MeganLeavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, DogDays managed just $2.5 million.
My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.
ADog’sWayHome opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
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