Oscar Predictions – Venom: The Last Dance

Tom Hardy and his title character alter ego are back for the third and allegedly final time when Venom: The Last Dance hits multiplexes this weekend. The only sub franchise in the Spider-Man Universe doing brisk business and producing sequels (sorry Morbius and Madame Web), Kelly Marcel directs. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.

Critics haven’t been overly kind to Hardy and company. Part 1 from 2018 managed only 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 35 on Metacritic. 2021 follow-up Venom: Let There Be Carnage fared better with 57% on RT and a 49 Metacritic. Dance is currently falling between those numbers with a 41% Tomato meter and 42 on MC.

Even though Hardy gives it his bonkers all in this series, don’t put money down on a Best Actor nomination unless you plan to lose. As I wrote three years ago with Carnage, Visual Effects is really the only awards play. Neither of Dance‘s predecessors nabbed a nod in VE and I wouldn’t expect this one to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Venom: The Last Dance Box Office Prediction

Tom Hardy is back in the dual roles of Eddie Brock and his sadistic otherworldly symbiote on October 25th with Venom: The Last Dance. The third entry in the franchise that began in 2018, Dance marks the directorial debut of Kelly Marcel. She co-wrote the original and solely penned the 2021 sequel Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The supporting cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Rhys Ifans, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, and Stephen Graham.

Six years back, Venom exceeded expectations with an $80 million opening weekend and $213 million total domestically. Three years later, forecasters assumed Carnage wouldn’t match up due to COVID complications. That turned out to be incorrect as the sequel amassed $90 million out of the gate. Its final stateside gross (rather remarkably) was also $213 million.

Bottom line: don’t underestimate this subsection of the Spider-Man Universe franchise. While Morbius and Madame Web struggled for eyeballs, I envision this premiering similarly to its predecessors. It may not match what came before, but low to mid 60s seems doable.

Venom: The Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $62.3 million

For my Conclave prediction, click here: