Oscar Predictions: Highest 2 Lowest

Spike Lee’s crime thriller Highest 2 Lowest has premiered at Cannes prior to A24’s theatrical release in August and Apple TV streaming bow in September. Updating Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low from 1963, Denzel Washington plays a music mogul caught up in a ransom plot. Costars include Ilfenesh Hadera, Jeffrey Wright, ASAP Rocky, and Ice Spice.

Critics are certainly higher than lower for the French unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94% with Metacritic at 77. According to reviews, it’s a successful genre exercise. That means, from an awards perspective, it might be a non-player like Spike and Denzel’s previous collaboration Inside Man from 2006 (this marks the fifth time they’ve teamed up).

However, I wouldn’t completely discount Denzel’s chances in Best Actor. If he could make the cut for 2017’s Roman J. Israel, Esq., he could do the same here and nab his 10th overall nom. 2017 was arguably a weak year in that category and we don’t know how the competition this time around will shake out. Mr. Washington likely came close to his 10th mention in supporting last year for Gladiator II. He might be in the arena once again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Cloud

Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.

The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.

With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Bill Nighy in Living

Bill Nighy’s performance as an English bureaucrat with a terminal cancer diagnosis in Living is the final Case Of post for the five Best Actor hopefuls.

The Case for Bill Nighy:

From a randy aging rocker in Love Actually to Davy Jones in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise and a zombified stepdad in Shaun of the Dead, Nighy has been a fixture on domestic screens for two decades. His work in the acclaimed Living somehow marks his first major awards exposure. He’s been nominated everywhere that counts from the Globes to Critics Choice to SAG and BAFTA.

The Case Against Bill Nighy:

Despite being included in all significant precursors, there’s no victory to be found for the central performance in this remake of Akira Kurosawa’s Ikiru. All the attention has been focused on Austin Butler (Elvis) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) as they battle down the stretch.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

While making the quintet was practically guaranteed, Nighy’s chances of winning are DOA for Living.

My Case Of posts will continue with Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once!

Write-ups for the other Best Actor nominees can be found here:

Oscar Predictions: Living

From a randy aging rock star in Love Actually to Dave Jones in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, Bill Nighy has been turning up in notable roles for years. Yet the acclaimed English thespian hasn’t gotten his awards bait role to date. That could change with Living, which has premiered at Sundance over the weekend.

Set in 1950s London, the remake of Akira Kurosawa’s 1952 pic Ikiru casts Nighy as a government worker diagnosed with a terminal illness. Costars include Aimee Lou Wood, Alex Sharp, and Tom Burke. Kazuo Ishiguro, who wrote the source material for 1993’s The Remains of the Day (which nabbed Best Picture and acting noms) is the screenwriter. Initial reviews (under 10 thus far) give it a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.

For a well-regarded actor of Nighy’s stature, this certainly seems like something that could be catnip for BAFTA voters. Whether the Academy follows suit might be determined by how robust its campaign is and that, of course, remains to be seen in the days and months ahead. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…