Tag: Ain’t Them Bodies Saints

Oscar Watch: The Green Knight

David Lowery has had the critics on his side for years with efforts including Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, A Ghost Story, and The Old Man & the Gun. His filmography has been called out by critics associations, but his pictures have yet to garner any Oscar attention.

Could that change with The Green Knight? Coming out Friday, the medieval fantasy had its embargo lifted today and the results are encouraging. Sporting a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score, it’s being called an epic experience with lush visuals. The lead performance of Dev Patel is also highly praised.

It will be interesting to see if distributor A24 mounts a major campaign. They could be preoccupied with The Tragedy of Macbeth from Joel Coen which is out this autumn.

Patel could be in the mix though I suspect he’s a bit of a long shot. He’s been nominated once before for Lion in supporting and drew some chatter that never panned out for The Personal History of David Copperfield. Costar Alicia Vikander (2015 Supporting Actress winner for The Danish Girl) might see a more serious campaign for Blue Bayou.

My hunch is that Knight could succeed in being Lowery’s first feature to get a nomination or two and that it could be in tech races. Visual Effects and Costume Design spring to mind. The Score is also getting kudos. I would also add that it’s highly possible Knight could be ignored altogether.

Bottom line: The Green Knight will need to sustain momentum over the season to be a competitor. Strong reviews could help the cause. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Green Knight Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (07/28): The theater count has been put out at approximately 2500, which is higher than I expected. Therefore I am revising my estimate up from $2.2M to $3.4M

David Lowery has become a favorite indie director of the critics with pics like Ain’t Them Bodies Saints and A Ghost Story. This Friday, he goes the bigger Arthurian medieval fantasy route with The Green Knight. Originally scheduled for May 2020 before its COVID delay, Knight stars Dev Patel, Alicia Vikander, Joel Edgerton, Sarita Choudhury, Sean Harris, Kate Dickie, Barry Keoghan, and Ralph Ineson.

A24 is handling distribution duties and early word of mouth is positive (as has been the case with the filmmaker’s previous efforts). How this translates to box office business is certainly questionable.

I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my forecast, but my feeling is that this starts quite low as it struggles to find an audience.

The Green Knight opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Jungle Cruise prediction, click here:

Jungle Cruise Box Office Prediction

For my Stillwater prediction, click here:

Stillwater Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: The Old Man & The Gun

In case you didn’t know, there are two major film festivals currently happening. In addition to Venice (which has produced a handful of Oscar Watch posts already), the Telluride Film Festival kicks off today. The opening selection is The Old Man & The Gun, David Lowery’s latest which reportedly features the retirement role of Mr. Robert Redford. It tells the true life story of Forrest Tucker, a genteel bank robber and prison escape artist.

Early screenings have occurred and reviews are quite positive. However, nothing I’ve seen suggests this will be a factor in Best Picture. Lowery is a critical favorite. Yet even better reviewed features such as Ain’t Them Bodies Saints and A Ghost Story didn’t register with the Academy.

The big question is whether Redford gets in for Best Actor. Shockingly, the legendary performer has been nominated only once. That was 45 years ago for The Sting. He has won Best Director for 1980’s Ordinary People. The lead actor looks like it has the potential to be crowded, but this could be voters final chance to recognize him as he says Gun will be his last acting role.

As for supporting players, I wouldn’t look for Casey Affleck, Danny Glover, or Tom Waits to get any traction for their work. Sissy Spacek, on the other hand, could also benefit from her stature as writers are citing her strong work. It’s also worth noting that Fox Searchlight is one of the better studios at awards campaigns.

Bottom line: competition is a key factor, but Redford and Spacek are possibilities.

The Old Man & The Gun is scheduled for release September 28. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: A Ghost Story

Another Sundance Film Festival, another Casey Affleck picture potentially entering the Oscar conversation. It was right around this time last year that Manchester by the Sea screened at the aforementioned fest and immediately garnered Academy buzz. This Tuesday, Manchester looks bound for a Best Picture nod and it looks to be one of three (alongside La La Land and Moonlight) that could win.

Today, A Ghost Story premiered at the Park City festival and initial word of mouth is pretty strong. The low-budget drama reunites director David Lowery with his Ain’t Them Bodies Saints actors Affleck and Rooney Mara. It is said to be melancholy, powerful, and rather out of the mainstream. Early reviews have suggested this could have a tough time reaching audiences and that’s something Manchester has managed to do.

That said, Mr. Affleck could well be coming off an Oscar win and this will be his follow-up. It may never fully get into the 2017 Oscar conversation, but that fact alone and the solid reviews out of the gate allow it to be my first Oscar Watch post of the new year.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

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2016: The Year of Casey Affleck

Nearly a decade ago, Casey Affleck received a Supporting Actor Oscar nomination for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It was that same year in 2007 that he starred in his brother Ben’s well-received directorial debut Gone Baby Gone and appeared for the third time in Oceans Thirteen as part of that blockbuster trilogy.

Since then, Affleck’s career has been a mix of smaller flicks like Ain’t Them Bodies Saints and Out of the Furnace with supporting roles in studio fare like Tower Heist and Interstellar. He also made a strange excursion into directing with the Joaquin Phoenix “documentary” I’m Still Here.

His 2016 started rather unremarkably with two pics that came and went – The Finest Hours and Triple 9. Yet it was that same time early in the year that word came out from Sundance about Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan’s drama about grief and family. And the word was quite impressive.

At the close of 2016, Manchester stands as a serious awards contender with its star assured a nomination for Best Actor. It is likely it will come down to Affleck and Denzel Washington (Fences) for the win. The former has already picked up a number of critics prizes for his most acclaimed role thus far. He closed out the year by hosting the “Saturday Night Live” Christmas show, including a very amusing bit involving Dunkin Donuts.

The Sundance Film Festival next month will showcase Affleck’s next project – A Ghost Story alongside Rooney Mara. Who knows what that will bring, but it certainly kickstarted a supremely lauded year for Affleck this year.