Oscar Predictions: Trap

It has been a quarter century since The Sixth Sense was a box office phenomenon that turned writer/director M. Night Shyamalan into a household name. The Academy took notice and rewarded the suspense thriller with six nominations including Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It lost each of those races to American Beauty.

Since then, the sole Oscar nod for an M. Night joint is 2004’s The Village in Original Score (it fell short to Finding Neverland). In fact, his filmography has garnered more Razzie attention in the last two decades with Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth.

Trap is the filmmaker’s latest with Josh Hartnett as a serial killer boxed in at a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Costars include Saleka Shyamalan, Hayley Mills, and Alison Pill.

Like his most recent tales Old and Knock at the Cabin, critical reaction isn’t near strong enough for awards buzz. The RT rating for Trap is just 49%. On the flip side, the buzz probably isn’t poor enough for the Razzies to notice. Some reviews are going out of their way to applaud Josh Hartnett (similar to how they lauded James McAvoy’s work in Shyamalan’s Split). Don’t expect Academy voters to put him in the convo for Actor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Summer 2013: The Top 10 Hits and More

This little blog of mine is over 10 years old now and a summer tradition has been to highlight the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We saw recaps of 1992, 2002, and 2012 around this time in 2022. Now this site is aged enough that I shall only look back at a decade ago. Therefore let’s shine a light on 2013 and the offerings between May and August.

Here’s how it works. I’ll recount the top 10 grossers domestically as well as other notable features and noteworthy flops. It was the summer after The Avengers dominated and Tony Stark still managed to rule in his own franchise.

Let the countdown begin!

10. The Great Gatsby

Domestic Gross: $144 million

Baz Luhrmann’s second collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio may have drawn mixed critical reaction, but audiences turned up and it won both Oscars it was nominated for (Production Design and Costume Design). It is still the stylish filmmaker’s largest worldwide earner even with last year’s success of Elvis.

9. We’re the Millers

Domestic Gross: $150 million

Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headlined this raunchy comedy from Dodgeball maker Rawson Marshall Thurber. Like Gatsby, critics weren’t overly kind but crowds liked what they saw.

8. The Heat

Domestic Gross: $159 million

Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy (hot off Bridesmaids) teamed up for this buddy cop laugher from Paul Feig and it became the summer’s hottest live-action movie in its genre. Bullock would have a massive earner and Oscar nod in the fall with Gravity.

7. World War Z

Domestic Gross: $202 million

Some had it pegged as a potential financial disappointment, but this would turn out to be the biggest grossing zombie flick ever. Despite Brad Pitt’s presence and plenty of development rumors, a planned sequel has yet to materialize.

6. Star Trek Into Darkness

Domestic Gross: $228 million

JJ Abrams helmed this sequel two and a half years before taking on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It holds the title of best global earning movie of the franchise.

5. Fast & Furious 6

Domestic Gross: $238 million

Vin Diesel and Paul Walker revved the series to unforeseen moneymaking heights at the time though part 7 would outdo it two years later. Six months after 6‘s release, Walker perished tragically in auto accident.

4. Monsters University

Domestic Gross: $268 million

The long gestating sequel to 2001’s Monsters University was a profitable venture for Pixar. It failed to nab an Animated Feature nod from the Academy (rare for the studio), but Disney likely wept into their cash.

3. Man of Steel

Domestic Gross: $291 million

The first picture in the DCEU came with gargantuan expectations with Zack Snyder directing and Henry Cavill donning the S. Reaction from critics and audiences was all over the map. Compared to this summer with the epic failure of The Flash, these were kinda the good ole days for DC.

2. Despicable Me 2

Domestic Gross: $368 million

Illumination dwarfed Pixar in the animated race with this sequel that became parent studio Universal’s most profitable film of all time. It’s also responsible for the season’s ubiquitous ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams.

1. Iron Man 3

Domestic Gross: $409 million

Tony Stark’s third solo adventure was generally considered an improvement on #2 as Shane Black handled the behind the camera work. It ended up as the year’s second best grosser behind November’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

Now for some others worthy of discussion:

The Conjuring

Domestic Gross: $137 million

It might be just outside the top ten in 11th, but James Wan’s horror classic spawned a decade’s worth of sequels (two thus far) and spin-offs (Annabelle, The Nun) with no end in sight.

Now You See Me

Domestic Gross: $117 million

The heist pic from Louis Leterrier (who just directed Fast X) was a sleeper smash with a $350 million worldwide haul. A less regarded sequel came in 2016.

The Butler

Lee Daniels helmed this decades spanning tale of Forest Whitaker’s White House employee with Oprah Winfrey as his troubled wife. The studio was likely hoping for more awards attention than it ended up with, but the earnings were impressive.

Pacific Rim

Domestic Gross: $101 million

Guillermo del Toro’s monster mashup didn’t wow with a significant domestic take, but the overseas dollars were enough to spawn a panned 2018 sequel. The international haul makes it the Oscar winner’s personal best.

This Is the End

Domestic Gross: $101 million

This end of the world saga from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was a star studded (from Michael Cera to Rihanna) dark comedy with critics on its side.

The Purge

Domestic Gross: $64 million

This dystopian horror pic launched another money minting series and was an early sleeper success for Blumhouse.

Blue Jasmine

Predicted Gross: $33 million

That number marks an impressive one for Woody Allen in the 21st century and this nabbed Cate Blanchett a Best Actress Academy Award.

Fruitvale Station

Domestic Gross: $16 million

Marking the first collaboration between Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, this indie drama was a critical darling. The pair would achieve colossal success in the years to follow with Creed and Black Panther.

There were lots of hits a decade ago. Yet there’s always the projects that don’t match expectations.

The Hangover Part III

Domestic Gross: $112 million

Audiences were growing weary of The Wolf Pack in the lambasted third entry. It came in well below the previous two.

Elysium

Domestic Gross: $93 million

Neill Blomkamp’s District 9 in 2009 was nominated for Best Picture. This sci-fi follow up with Matt Damon was considered a letdown by not joining the century club.

The Lone Ranger

Domestic Gross: $89 million

I’m gonna go ahead and say you couldn’t green light this $250 million adventure starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer today. It turns out Disney shouldn’t have 10 years ago as this came in far under expectations. The box office magic that director Gore Verbinski and Depp created with Pirates of the Caribbean was gone.

White House Down

Predicted Gross: $73 million

Roland Emmerich’s latest with Channing Tatum as a secret service agent and Jamie Foxx as POTUS had its thunder stolen in the spring by the similarly themed and better regarded Olympus Has Fallen (which spawned two sequels).

After Earth

Predicted Gross: $60 million

Moviegoers slapped down M. Night Shyamalan’s sci-fi epic starring the father son duo of Will and Jaden Smith. Reviews were harsh with a 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

The Internship

Domestic Gross: $44 million

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s 2005 romp Wedding Crashers was a $209 million earning smash. Eight years later, very few signed up for this forgettable reunion.

R.I.P.D.

Predicted Gross: $33 million

It might have been going for the Men in Black crowd, but audiences shunned this sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. Somehow a direct to DVVD prequel was commissioned and released last year.

And there you have it! A look back at 2013 in the multiplex. I’ll have a 2014 recap conjured up next summer…

Oscar Predictions: Knock at the Cabin

Nearly a quarter century ago, M. Night Shyamalan’s phenom The Sixth Sense scared up six Oscar nominations including Best Picture and Director. It didn’t win any, but it established the filmmaker as a force at the box office. His fortunes have certainly ebbed and flowed in the 21st century with financial hits and misses. As far as awards attention, only 2004’s The Village achieved another Academy nod for its score.

Shyamalan’s latest is the apocalyptic thriller Knock at the Cabin with Dave Bautista headlining the cast. Based on Paul G. Tremblay’s 2018 novel, Knock‘s embargo is up today ahead of its Friday release. The results are pretty encouraging with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. At the low point in his filmography, he had a string of flops and critical bombs (Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, After Earth) that racked up plenty of Golden Raspberry mentions.

Cabin is ahead of Shyamalan’s two predecessors Glass and Old as far as the RT meter. It isn’t as high (77%) as comeback vehicle Split from 2017. While Bautista is being complimented for his performance, I don’t see this being welcomed in any of the Academy races a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Old

In 1999, M. Night Shyamalan’s breakout smash The Sixth Sense received six Oscar nominations, including Picture, Director, the supporting work of Haley Joel Osment and Toni Collette, and the screenplay that infamously shocked the moviegoing masses. It ended up winning none of them and since then, Shyamalan’s filmography has resulted in just one other nomination for his next 10 features (Original Score for The Village).

Conversely, we have seen 23 nods and some victories for the auteur’s work at the Razzies (which annually celebrates the worst in film). This includes four nominations each for Lady in the Water and The Happening, 8 for The Last Airbender, six with After Earth, and one for Glass. 

This brings us to Old, his latest pic opening tomorrow. The review embargo lifted today and it currently sports a somewhat decent 61% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, many critics say it encompasses the best of Shyamalan and the worst (get ready for some clunky dialogue).

No, Old will not contend for Best Picture at the Oscars (but it may not get Razzie love either). However, just a look at the trailers and TV spots indicates it could play in one race. The plot involves its cast of characters rapidly aging on a scenic beach and that involves makeup.

The Makeup and Hairstyling category is one where critical kudos doesn’t mean much. I give you previous pics such as Click, Norbit, The Lone Ranger, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil as evidence.

There will be more likely nominees in the mix such as Cruella and House of Gucci and Jessica Chastain’s forthcoming transformation as the title character in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Yet perhaps Old could have a shot here and my sixth sense says that’s at least feasible. On the flip side, perhaps when nominations come out – we will discover Old‘s viability had been dead the entire time. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Split Box Office Prediction

The cinematic horror stylings of M. Night Shyamalan returns to theaters next weekend when Split debuts. His latest fright fest stars James McAvoy as a man with multiple personalities who kidnaps three teen girls. Anya Taylor-Joy and Betty Buckley are among the costars acting alongside all of McAvoy’s characters.

Split screened at a couple of film festivals during the fall and early word suggests a return to form for the auteur. The current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 82%. Of course, Shyamalan’s filmography is a checkered one. He sprinted out of the gate with commercial and critical hits such as The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, and Signs. Disappointments from critics and audiences would come with Lady in the Water, The Happening, and After Earth. His previous effort, 2015’s The Visit, drew mixed reaction from reviewers and crowds yet it debuted with a better than anticipated $25 million weekend and $65M overall domestic take.

In fact, the smallest first weekend from the director since he’s become a celebrity in his own right remains Lady in the Water at $18 million. I incorrectly predicted The Visit would open under that over one year ago and was proven wrong.

With solid reviews and effective TV spots and trailers, I’ll predict Split gets over that $18 million figure and just shy of $20M.

Split opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million

For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/xxx-return-of-xander-cage-box-office-prediction/

For my The Founder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/11/the-founder-box-office-prediction/

For my 20th Century Women prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/20th-century-women-box-office-prediction/

For my The Resurrection of Gavin Stone prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/the-resurrection-of-gavin-stone-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: May 31-June 2

It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking. 

This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.

We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.

This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.

And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.

Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).

RECAP

Fast and Furious 6

Gross: $35.1 million. Todd’s Prediction: $36 million.

Now You See Me

Gross: $29.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $14.2 million.

After Earth

Gross: $27.5 million. Todd’s Prediction: $39.1 million.

Epic

Gross: $16.6 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.7 million.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Gross: $16.7 million. Todd’s Prediction: $18.5 million.

The Hangover Part III

Gross: $16.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.1 million.

So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!

The Rise and Fall of M. Night Shyamalan

The trajectory of M. Night Shyamalan’s directorial career is at a bit of a low point right now and it’s held there for around seven years. The release of the Will and Jaden Smith sci-fi pic After Earth this Friday will either continue that trend or reverse it. We’ll have our answer soon, but today we’ll explore the history of this important filmmaker and how we’ve gotten to the point Shyamalan is currently at.

At the age of 22, he made his directorial debut with Praying with Anger, which was never released for wide distribution and played the festival circuit. Per usual, M. Night wrote the feature as well. Shyamalan cast himself as the star of the picture which focused on Indian culture (the director was born in the country, but grew up in Pennsylvania). Released in 1992, Anger managed to gross $1.4 million and was shot on an $800,000 budget.

The moderate success of his first picture led to 1998’s Wide Awake, a dramedy starring Denis Leary, Dana Delany, and Rosie O’Donnell. Awake began M. Night’s trend of setting films in his adopted home state. It received mixed reviews and never really got much of a theatrical release. Shot in 1995 on a $6 million budget and released three whole years later, it earned a tepid $282,000.

Based on his first two efforts, there was really no reason to believe Shyamalan would break out in the Hollywood scene in a major way. However, then 1999 came along and changed everything. This happened in the form of The Sixth Sense, released stateside on August 6, the director’s 29th birthday. Starring Bruce Willis and child actor Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense became the most buzzed about summer 1999 title. The supernatural thriller about young Osment seeing dead people struck an unexpected chord with audiences and critics. It currently sits at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes.

An absolutely astonishing $293 million gross domestically and $672 million worldwide would be the result. 11 year-old Osment received an Oscar nomination, as did Toni Collette playing his mother. Willis was snubbed in my view for a Best Actor nomination. Most importantly, Sense earned a Best Picture nomination and nods for Shyamalan for his direction and original screenplay.

The Sixth Sense immediately vaulted Shyamalan into a superstar among directors. Even most blockbuster films don’t earn their director a ton of name recognition. This was not the case here. There were Hitchcock and Spielberg comparisons as critics and moviegoers marveled at the ingenious screenplay and, of course, the surprise ending was truly surprising. That ending assisted in getting audiences back for repeat viewings, which no doubt contributed to its gargantuan box office numbers.

The goodwill garnered by Sense would cause a breathless anticipation for Night’s follow-up, which hit multiplexes just fifteen months later. In November 2000 came Unbreakable, with Bruce Willis returning in the starring role and assisted by Samuel L. Jackson and Robin Wright Penn. As much as I love Bruce Willis, he’s never been a consistent box office draw when you examine his filmography. Shyamalan’s name propelled Unbreakable to a fantastic $30 million opening. However, the picture showed the first chink in the armor of Night’s invincibility. Audiences weren’t thrilled with it, at least not anywhere to the extent of Sixth Sense. While moviegoers were blown away with the “he’s been dead the whole time” shock value of that surprise ending, the revelation of Bruce’s character in Unbreakable being a superhero didn’t wow folks. Unbreakable would earn $95 million domestically – a far cry from its predecessor’s numbers. It would receive mixed reviews and is at 68% on the Tomato meter.

My take? I really dug Unbreakable. I found it to be a very clever superhero origin story and subsequent viewing have elevated my view of it. Like most first-time watchers, I found myself confused at the direction the film took in my theater experience. But I’ve grown to appreciate Unbreakable and consider it to be a worthwhile experience that once again features assured direction and a fine Willis performance.

Less than two years later, Night would be back in Sixth Sense territory with another audience and critical triumph. Arriving in the summer of 2002, Signs was maybe or maybe not an alien invasion flick as the trailers toyed with us in brilliant fashion. Starring Mel Gibson and Joaquin Phoenix as farmers who notice strange crop dust patterns in their field, Signs was a suspenseful and seriously clever genre pic that delivered. When we find out that Signs is indeed an alien invasion pic via that birthday party in Mexico, it is film magic of the highest order. This is my favorite Shyamalan movie and one of 2002’s greatest titles. Signs would bring in a domestic gross of $227 million – less than Sixth Sense, but still terrific. It’s Tomato Meter is at 74%.

Two years later, the summer of 2004 would bring The Village, set in the 19th century and featuring creatures in the woods terrorizing a village. Or… is the movie about that? The Village would feature much of what we had come to expect from Night’s works, especially the surprise ending. However, it was The Village that also began to accentuate issues with his pictures: actors delivering their lines with zero emotion, dialogue that could be laughable at spots, and pacing that took a little too much time. The director’s name would allow The Village a $114 million domestic gross. Not bad, but nowhere near Sense or Signs levels. And audiences disliked it even more than Unbreakable. Critics weren’t wild about it either with a 43% Rotten Tomatoes total. I certainly found it to be the weakest of his mainstream features up to that point, but I thought it was OK overall. Still, The Village was the origin point of a downward spiral that has yet to reverse.

The summer of 2006 would end Night’s solid box office run and it would decimate his standing with critics as well. Lady in the Water, starring Paul Giamatti and Village costar Bryce Dallas Howard, landed with a thud. Focusing on an apartment complex maintenance man who finds a water nymph in the pool, Lady was simply bizarre. In many spots, it was badly written and featured truly laughable dialogue along the way. It tanked at the box office with only $42 million domestically, as well as an embarrassing 24% on Rotten Tomatoes. The excitement that Night had built with The Sixth Sense and Signs was gone and his name connected to a movie was no longer a selling point.

Night’s 2008 summer film The Happening starring Mark Wahlberg wouldn’t help the situation. While the picture, which is basically about plants turning people into homicidal maniacs, outdid Lady‘s gross with $64 million – audiences hated it on the same level. The critics were brutal and a 17% Tomato meter evidenced that. There are times watching The Happening where you’re totally cracking up unintentionally. Pretty sure that’s not what Shyamalan was going for. Wahlberg, a very talented actor, is also just awful in it. The combination of Lady in the Water and The Happening had severely soured Night’s reputation, less than a decade after The Sixth Sense made him one of the most famous directors on Earth.

Shyamalan would move away from scary and twisty thrillers with The Last Airbender, released in the summer of 2010. He would also move away from his screenplays being based on original material. Airbender was based on a Nickelodeon series and aimed squarely at a kid/young adult audience. Somewhat surprisingly, the picture grossed a rock solid $131 million domestically, Night’s highest earner statewide since Signs. It is worth noting that its American gross was less than its budget, which was a hefty $150 million. The movie would do little to improve Night’s reputation, however. Only 6% – yes six percent – of critics deemed it worthy of view on Rotten Tomatoes.

And that brings us to this weekend’s release of After Earth. This film is not based on Night’s original idea… it’s actually based on Will Smith’s idea that he brought to the director. Shyamalan did co-write the script for the sci-fi pic that comes with a $130 million budget. After Earth is notable in its advertising campaign. As it should, it focuses mainly on the fact that it’s a Will Smith sci-fi flick. The difference for Night this time around? Nowhere does it focus on him. At all. It’s almost as if the studio doesn’t want you to know he directed it… like it’s more of a hindrance than a selling point. It was less than a decade ago that the possibility of that would have been ludicrous.

Times have changed for Night, however. And the question that will be answered this Friday is whether After Earth continues the bad news for the director or reverses the audience and critical distaste for him.