Oscar Predictions: Splitsville

Michael Angelo Covino cowrites, directs, and costars in the rom com Splitsville, out this weekend in limited form and widely on September 5th from distributor Neon. It premiered at Cannes back in May. Dakota Johnson headlines along with her filmmaker, Adria Arjona, Kyle Marvin, Nicholas Braun, David Castaneda, O-T Fagbenie, and Charlie Gillespie.

Johnson’s second genre exercise this season (Materialists being the other), Splitsville is drawing mostly positive critical reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is 86% with Metacritic at 75. I do think Golden Globe attention in Best Musical/Comedy is at least a possibility, but the Academy is unlikely to consider it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Blink Twice Review

Zoë Kravitz’s directorial career opens up nicely enough with Blink Twice that it feels whiny to gripe on the negatives. It takes a while to find its destination. Perhaps the “eat the rich” genre is getting overdone considering The Menu, Triangle of Sadness, Saltburn, and HBO’s The White Lotus. There’s still enough to savor in this assured debut from the actress of many franchises including X-Men, Mad Max, Divergent, and The Batman.

That starts with an entrancing cast led by Naomi Ackie’s Frida. She’s a cocktail waitress whose employment at swanky benefits puts her in the airspace of vapid and vaping billionaire Slater (Channing Tatum). Frida is familiar with him as we witness her scroll through Instagram where he’s making an indistinct apology for some past transgression. If he’s canceled, no one’s informed various hangers on in his orbit. A sudden burst of confidence and then klutziness from Frida creates a Meet Cute where Slater invites her and her coworker/roommate Jess (Alia Shawkat) to his private island.

An entourage is in tow including private chef Cody (Simon Rex), business partner and Polaroid documenter Vic (Christian Slater), young Lucas (Levon Hawke) and Tom (Haley Joel Osment) whose primary character trait is wearing sunglasses and being under the influence. The boys are joined by influencer and reality star Sarah (Adria Arjona) and Camilla (Liz Caribel) and Heather (Trew Mullens). The latter two share Tom’s generally hazy ways. Sarah seems to be in a competition for Slater’s attention with Frida even though she’s seemingly paired up with Cody. Geena Davis joins the proceedings as Slater’s organized but off-kilter assistant.

With their phones confiscated, the vacation with an indeterminate end date starts with picture perfect scenery, amazing food that Cody snootily describes, and copious dollops of designer drugs. Sure there’s venomous vipers on the grounds, but the servants seem to be handling them. Increasingly there’s periods of lost time that Frida and eventually Sarah and especially Jess begin to notice. And why is there dirt under Frida’s animal adorned fingernails each morning? What’s with random bruises showing up on people that they can’t recall?

The eventual truths are as disturbing as the real life stories of plutocrats with their own islets. The screenplay from Kravitz and E.T. Feigenbaum doesn’t shy away from entering dark and disturbing places. This is after a fairly lengthy windup that risks lulling the audience into complacency (perhaps on purpose). The cast helps guide us through the earlier days becoming a blur. No one seems to have a grasp on whether it’s Monday, Saturday, or whether they’ve been there a week or three.

Ackie and Arjona’s performances are the worthiest of attention. Best known as Whitney Houston in the biopic I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Ackie goes from infatuated server to victim of horrifying acts to unexpected statuses that I won’t spoil. That’s a tricky balancing act and she certainly manages it. Arjona is perhaps the most impressive in a role that seems one-note at first (the jilted woman) and becomes anything but. With this and her starring turn in Hit Man from a few months back, she’s having a fantastic cinematic year.

Blink Twice might be familiar territory as of late, but Kravitz’s take made me not wanna look away. It’s worth taking the trip with these literal and figurative snakes in the grass and those that serve them until the power dynamic shifts.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Blink Twice

Zoë Kravitz makes her directorial debut and cowrites Blink Twice which opens this weekend. The psychological thriller features a packed cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.

The $20 million production originally had a far more provocative title (look it up) and most critics are complimentary of Kravitz’s first behind the camera effort. The RT score is 80%. Some are saying it doesn’t quite pull off its mix of genres.

Twice hopes to be a decent late summer performer for Amazon Studios. That’s a big question mark. Awards viability isn’t as this was never conceived as a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

MGM looks for audiences to set their sights on Blink Twice when it opens August 23rd. The thriller marks the directorial debut of Zoë Kravitz with an eclectic cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.

Reviews thus far are decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Late August typically isn’t fertile ground for fresh product at the box office. Blink face an uphill battle. It is slated for approximately 3000 screens and that’s more than The Crow is reportedly getting (2600).

There could be a close race between those two newcomers as I see both in the high single digits or lower double digits. I currently having this flying a little higher.

Blink Twice opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my The Crow prediction, click here:

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man (Take II)

This is the first time I’ve written a second Oscar Predictions post on the same picture, but it feels warranted with Richard Linklater’s Hit Man. Why? Happy to explain. The dark rom com premiered to sizzling buzz in Venice and Toronto last fall (the RT score is still an impressive 97%). I wrote my initial post on its awards chances on September 5th. You can peruse it here:

At that juncture, its distribution was up in the air. I assumed it would find a release in 2023. However, Netflix scooped up it up and it’s out for streaming viewership this weekend some nine months plus later. A lot has changed since that festival birth.

Glen Powell is an even bigger star. Last September, I talked about how he was hot off a supporting role in Top Gun: Maverick. Now he’s fresh from a headlining turn in the unexpected rom com blockbuster Anyone but You. He’s a month away from starring in summer tentpole Twisters. In the fall of ’23, I stated that Best Actor was too crowded already for him to vie for a slot. That’s not the case in June of ’24 though we don’t know if there will be room for him among forthcoming dramatic performances in the second half of the year. When I did my last forecast two weeks ago, I had him in the quintet for Actor. We’ll see if he remains there when I do my next update on Sunday. I do think he’s viable and I do believe he gets a Golden Globe nod in the Musical/Comedy race for lead Actor. If he doesn’t, that probably means Netflix did a poor job campaigning. Adria Arjona, his love interest, could be in the mix for Actress in the same classification. For that matter, a GG mention in Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) might materialize.

Not everything has changed. The strongest Oscar chance is in Adapted Screenplay where Linklater has been nominated thrice before with Before Sunset, Before Midnight, and Boyhood. If and when that happens, Powell would be along for the ride since he co-scripted.

As for BP itself, you never know. I’ve had it listed in the bottom rungs of my top 25 possibilities. While a long shot, it could hit if too many of the upcoming hopefuls fall short of expectations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.

Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Morbius Review

There are some Matrix adjacent fight scenes in Morbius that might have you thinking it should be called Morpheus. They’re nowhere near that level in quality and some of them are such a CG mess that you can’t tell what’s happening. Should our hero and villain bite the red artery or suck the blue vein? Despite its connective tissue to Sony’s Spider-Man Universe (meaning the web slinger and Venom), it’s hard to really care.

Dr. Michael Morbius (Jared Leto) is a world renowned expert in blood disorders. The experience is personal as he has one and makes it his life work to cure himself and others. His childhood friend Milo (Matt Smith) suffers from the same disease and has the money to bankroll Doc Mo’s research. A Costa Rican excursion results in the acquisition of vampire bats. Perhaps some genetic splicing will do the trick!

This is when Morbius is blessed and cursed with the batty sense. He feels better than ever (and looks jacked), but has to feast to keep the strength up. His desire to go full Dracula prevents him from offering the cure to Milo. That puts a strain on their friendship causing Milo to go full overacting bad guy.

While our title character tries to get by on artificial blood, many of the visual effects look pretty fake. There’s no real development of the supporting characters. This includes Adria Arjona as Morbius’s colleague/love interest, Jared Harris as his father figure and medical mentor, and Tyrese Gibson and Al Madrigal as detectives tracking the suckers. Maybe their time was cut. Maybe the filmmakers (with Daniel Espinosa in the director’s seat) are saving some for hoped for sequels. Tyrese is apparently signed for a three-picture deal which explains his curiously fast appearance.

In the first half, Morbius is a passable enough monster mash. Maybe even a little quaint as it sort of feels like a late 90s genre piece before most comic book movies came with $200 million budgets. I’m not sure I buy Leto as a brilliant physician turning down Nobel prizes, but he doesn’t embarrass himself. This sputters as the effects render it increasingly incomprehensible.

By the time it drops in Spidey references in the mid credits sequences, it’s gotten desperate. In this Spider-Verse, Morbius doesn’t reach the specific heights of the venomous creatures preceding it.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Morbius

Jared Leto has an Oscar for his supporting work in 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club. That film won another trophy for Makeup and Hairstyling. Three years later, Leto’s turn as The Joker in Suicide Squad contributed to a victory in that same category. Last weekend, House of Gucci (featuring a much ballyhooed turn from Leto) lost the Makeup derby to The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Why am I bringing this up?

Well, it’s an excuse for Morbius and Oscar to appear as words together in a post. The Sony/Marvel production (which casts Leto as the vampire antihero) is finally making its way to theaters on Friday after numerous COVID delays. There’s been rumors that it’s not of the highest quality and the lapsed review embargo seems to prove that. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a mere 19% at time of publication.

That said, some of this genre fare can still materialize in Visual Effects or Makeup and Hairstyling (like Suicide Squad). I would say Morbius has a better chance at multiple Razzie nominations than any from the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Morbius Box Office Prediction

Sony and Marvel are hoping there’s plenty of buyers in the Morbius club as the dark superhero tale finally premieres on April 1st. Led by Jared Leto in the title vampiric role, Daniel Espinosa directs with a supporting cast including Matt Smith, Adria Arjona, Al Madrigal, and Tyrese Gibson.

This is the third entry in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe after the two Venom flicks from 2018 and last year. Both of them were massive hits and, of course, we are on the heels of Spider-Man: No Way Home being the third largest domestic earner in history.

Morbius was originally set for release all the way back in summer of 2020 before its numerous COVID related delays. Shot for a reported $75 million, it should have no trouble making its money back (especially when including international grosses). Yet I’m skeptical it approaches the $80 million that Venom started with or $90 million that its sequel earned out of the gate a few months back.

Estimates are in the $40-$50 million range and my hunch is that projecting a debut in the middle end of that range is the call.

Morbius opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million

Pacific Rim Uprising Box Office Prediction

The giant monster mash franchise that began nearly five years ago is back on screen next weekend with the release of Pacific Rim Uprising. There’s some new faces behind and in front of the camera this time around. The original Pacific Rim debuted in the summer of 2013 to decent stateside box office numbers, earning $37 million in its opening weekend and $101 million overall. It reached over $400 million worldwide.

Part 1 came from recently minted Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, who just shares a producer credit here. Steven S. DeKnight makes his directorial debut in a cast led by John Boyega. Costars include Scott Eastwood, Cailee Spaeny, Jing Tian, and Adria Arjona. Returning cast members from the first include Charlie Day, Rinko Kikuchim, and Burn Gorman. Idris Elba and Charlie Hunnam are not back.

Uprising arrives with a slightly smaller budget than part 1 – $150 million vs. $190 million. Expectations for the sequel are also smaller – at least in North America. Universal Pictures is likely looking to make the bulk of its cash overseas, particularly in the Asian markets. While Rim seems poised to debut at #1, I’m estimating a mid 20s gross and predicting it won’t reach the century club like its predecessor.

Pacific Rim Uprising opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million

For my Sherlock Gnomes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/13/sherlock-gnomes-box-office-prediction/

For my Paul, Apostle of Christ prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/14/paul-apostle-of-christ-box-office-prediction/

For my Midnight Sun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/midnight-sun-box-office-prediction/

For my Unsane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/unsane-box-office-prediction/