The Surfer was first screened nearly a year ago at Cannes as it makes it way to screens on May 2nd. From Vivarium director Lorcan Finnegan, Nicolas Cage stars in what numerous critics are saying is a solid B-movie psychological thriller. The supporting cast includes Julian McMahon, Nic Cassim, Miranda Tapsell, and Alexander Bertrand.
The Aussie set production stands at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with Metacritic at 68. Reviews are singling out Cage’s performance. In recent years, he’s flirted with awards inclusion via Pig and Dream Scenario (it’s been over two decades since his last nom for Adaptation). Don’t expect The Surfer to catch a wave of momentum despite appreciation for its lead and his reportedly bonkers yet effective work. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kristoffer Borgli’s dark comedy Dream Scenario premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 10th theatrical release. The A24 effort casts Nicolas Cage as a nerdy professor who inexplicably starts showing up in people’s dreams. Julianne Nicholson, Michael Cera, Tim Meadows, Dylan Gelula, and Dylan Baker costar.
The Dream reviews are mostly on the plus side with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s really only two categories where I see Oscar possibilities. Mr. Cage is being praised for his work. He could be in line for a third Best Actor nod behind 1995’s Leaving Las Vegas (for which he won) and 2002’s Adaptation. He likely came close to his third nod for 2021’s Pig. Yet as I’ve already discussed on this blog, there’s a quintet of contenders who already look strong in the race. That would be Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). It almost seems too easy, right? That’s why I figure at least one of those gentlemen get snubbed. Cage could fill the gap, but there’s other hopefuls in the mix. I think his chances to be named in the Musical/Comedy competition at the Golden Globes is stronger.
Original Screenplay is feasible and perhaps even more so if A24 campaigns hard for it. Nominations in those two derbies are the dream scenario with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As the mom of a school shooter preparing to meet with family members of the departed, Judy Greer stars in Michael Shannon’s directorial debut Eric Larue. Brett Neveu adapts his own play with a supporting cast including Paul Sparks, Alison Pill, Tracy Letts, and Alexander Skarsgård. It premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and is seeking domestic distribution for later this year.
Reviews for the picture itself are a mixed bag with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the critical reaction compares it to 2021’s similarly themed Mass. That film received more acclaim and came up empty at the Oscars.
The story should be the same for Larue with one possible exception. Greer is generating career best notices. She’s one of those performers that you’ll recognize from many projects on the big and small screen. The lengthy list includes Adaptation, 13 Going on 30, The Village, 27 Dresses, The Descendants, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Halloween and sequel Halloween Kills.
Normally I’d say that Larue might be too minor a project for Greer to contend for Best Actress attention. However, Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nom a few months back for To Leslie at least has me wondering. Greer is well-respected with two decades of character actor work. I wouldn’t count on her getting in, but the right campaign could change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I know, I know. For followers of my blog – you might be thinking… an Oscar Watch post on the Nicolas Cage pig movie?!?! Well, before you completely turn up your snout on the notion, I will just point out that the actor’s latest effort (opening tomorrow) is garnering some serious acclaim.
Pig marks the directorial debut of Michael Sarnoski and it casts Cage as a truffle hunter whose beloved swine is swiped. So how are the critics responding? How about a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating and reviewers calling it some of the finest work of the actor’s career.
The last several years of the Oscar winner’s career has been something to behold. Cage is appearing in about four to five pictures a year on average. Most of them are direct to streaming and many are nondescript action thrillers with poor Tomato meters. Yet for every three or four of those, there’s another that gets some props. This includes Mom and Dad, Mandy, and Color Out of Space.
It’s been over 25 years since Cage took home Best Actor for Leaving Las Vegas and nearly 20 years since his last nod for Adaptation. Now let’s get real. It’s highly unlikely that the Academy will nominate him here (though they have shown their love for the title animal before with Babe). Pig is a long shot for any attention at all.
That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see a groundswell of Internet support with a campaign to get Cage back into contention. Don’t expect it to come to fruition, but stranger things have happened. That includes the very idea of this post existing before the critics weighed in. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
For over two decades, Charlie Kaufman has been one of the most celebrated screenwriters in the business. His original written works have resulted in a nomination for 1999’s Being John Malkovich and a win for 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Kaufman picked up an Adapted Screenplay nod for 2002’s Adaptation. Additionally, his direction of the stop-motion tale Anomalisa in 2015 brought in a Best Animated Feature nomination.
Kaufman’s name on a project immediately brings awards buzz and his latest effort is I’m Thinking of Ending Things, which debuts on Netflix September 4th. Described as anti-romance and a horror flick, it marks the auteur’s third film behind the camera. Based on the 2016 novel by Iain Reid, Things stars Jessie Buckley, Jesse Plemons, Toni Collette, and David Thewlis.
The review embargo lapsed today and it currently stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a fine number, but some of the critical reaction mirrors 2008’s Synedoche, New York (Kaufman’s directorial debut). Hailed as a masterpiece by some with others calling it a bleak misfire, Things appears headed for a polarized mix and that will likely translate to Oscar voters.
As for the performers, it does appear Plemons would contend in lead actor (this was more uncertain previously). Several critics have compared his performance to that of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s in Synedoche. I have trouble envisioning him being a major contender here (though his supporting work in the upcoming Judas and the Black Messiah gives him another potential shot at a first time nod). Buckley got some chatter for her breakout role in last year’s Wild Rose. I feel her chances are a bit stronger than her costar, but the Best Actress race looks like it could be crowded in 2020. Despite many heralded performances, Collette has only received one Oscar nomination and it was over 20 years ago with The Sixth Sense. There could be a groundswell of support for her to be recognized, especially after many felt she were snubbed for 2018’s Hereditary. She may have the best chance for inclusion, but it too feels like a reach at the moment.
I’m thinking that Ending Things will contend in Adapted Screenplay and it certainly could be recognized there. We will have to see how this fall’s other heavy hitters land to see how full that race is. Even with some negative reaction, voters have shown their appreciation for Kaufman before and they may again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Continuing on with my look back at the major categories from 1990 to the present at the Oscars, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my post regarding Supporting Actress, you can find it right here:
As I did with that blog entry, I’m picking the top 3 least surprising winners (performers who essentially sailed right through awards season) and the 3 biggest upsets in each race. I am also selecting the strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the 28 actors whose support earned them a golden statue:
1990 – Joe Pesci, GoodFellas
1991 – Jack Palance, City Slickers
1992 – Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
1993 – Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive
1994 – Martin Landau, Ed Wood
1995 – Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects
1996 – Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire
1997 – Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting
1998 – James Coburn, Affliction
1999 – Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules
2000 – Benicio del Toro, Traffic
2001 – Jim Broadbent, Iris
2002 – Chris Cooper, Adaptation
2003 – Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2004 – Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – George Clooney, Syriana
2006 – Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
2007 – Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2008 – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2009 – Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2010 – Christian Bale, The Fighter
2011 – Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2012 – Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
2013 – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2014 – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2015 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2016 – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2017 – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are plenty to choose from as far least surprising winners, but here’s my top ones:
3. Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
Clint Eastwood’s Western picked up a slew of awards on Oscar night and Hackman’s inclusion in that race was never really in doubt. It was his second statue after winning Best Actor 21 years previously for The French Connection.
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
It was director Christopher Nolan giving numerous awards speeches on behalf of the late Ledger, as his work playing the iconic villain swept all precursors as well. This remains not only the only win in the omnipresent superhero genre in the 21st century, but the only nomination.
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Like Ledger, Bardem created a bad guy for the ages in the Coen Brothers Oscar-winning picture. He picked up all the precursors as well for his role.
And now the upsets!
3. James Coburn, Affliction
There was clearly no front-runner in 1998 as a different actor was honored in each preceding awards show. Ed Harris took the Golden Globe for The Truman Show, Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan) was victorious at the Critics Choice Awards, Robert Duvall’s role in A Civil Action was honored at SAG, and Geoffrey Rush (Elizabeth) was the BAFTA recipient. Surely one of them would win the Oscar, but it instead went to Mr. Coburn.
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
In 2015, the general consensus was that Sylvester Stallone would punch out the competition in his signature role for Creed. That would have been quite a feat after Rocky took Best Picture in 1976 – nearly four decades prior. Yet it didn’t materialize when Rylance made the trip to the podium.
1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Along the same lines, Eddie Murphy was the strong favorite for his rare dramatic work in Dreamgirls. With Jennifer Hudson as a sure thing for Supporting Actress (which did happen), the musical looked safe for a supporting sweep. The Academy surprisingly went another route by honoring Arkin.
And now to the fields overall and choosing a strongest and weakest. For the least impressive of the bunch, I’m going with 2011. Here were the nominees:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (winner)
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When it comes to best overall field, I chose 1993. This is the year that Tommy Lee Jones got the gold in The Fugitive. That’s a rare acting win for an action flick. It was deserved in my view and the other four nominees were very strong as well. They were:
Leonardo DiCaprio, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape
Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List
John Malkovich, In the Line of Fire
Pete Postlethwaite, In the Name of the Father
Furthermore, I could keep going with other deserving actors that year, including Val Kilmer in Tombstone and Sean Penn for Carlito’s Way.
The next trip down memory lane will be Best Actress and it will be up soon!
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