My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:
The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).
One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).
We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.
At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)
Nearly half a century ago, Sidney Lumet’s cinematic adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express tracked down six nominations. This included a Supporting Actress victory for Ingrid Bergman.
Kenneth Branagh’s 2017 version of the mystery found decent box office success and a Production Design nom at Critics Choice. Academy voters didn’t honor it anywhere and the same holds true for follow-up Death on the Nile from last year.
The third feature in the series is A Haunting in Venice (out September 15th), based on Christie’s Hallowe’en Party. Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, Michelle Yeoh, and Branagh’s Hercule Poirot make up the cast. With more horror elements than the previous pics, it hopes to scare up decent business. With the review embargo lifted, it holds the best Rotten Tomatoes score among the trio. Orient‘s is 61%, Nile is similar with 62%, and Haunting is posting 81% at this early stage (of course it could go down when more reaction comes in).
That said, Production Design and Costume Design are really the only feasible inclusions. I deduce the Academy will look to others for their final five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 80th Venice Film Festival has signed off and the Grand Jury’s verdict has honored what’s expected to be a major awards player. From 2017-2020, the four films that took the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) went onto receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, and Nomadland (another victor). 2021 French pic Happening and 2022’s documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed bucked the trend.
Yet I would suspect the correlation between Lion and BP nominee returns in 2023 as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is the Lion recipient. Based on reaction from Italy, Things established itself as a major contender across many categories and this assists in cementing that. Expect to read lots about this movie in my prediction posts in the weeks and months ahead.
Venice likes to spread the wealth around. Poor Things didn’t take the directing or screenplay categories or name Emma Stone as Best Actress. Instead that statue went to Cailee Spaeny as Elvis’s young bride Priscilla in Sofia Coppola’s biopic. This does nothing but help Spaeney’s chances in what appears to be an already crowded Actress derby.
Peter Sarsgard is your Best Actor for Michael Franco’s Memory (he and Jessica Chastain are drawing raves for their work). Its distributor would need to mount a shrewd campaign for Academy voters to take notice.
The fest’s runner-up trophy (the Grand Jury Prize) went to Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist. Japan recently opted to select Perfect Days from Wim Wenders as their International Feature Film hopeful. Best Screenplay went to El Conde from Pablo Larrain, which will likely be Chile’s best best for IFF inclusion.
Poor Things was the odds on favorite for the Lion as Venice rolled along. Look for it to roar as the season continues.
Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money is one of the higher profile debuts at the Toronto Film Festival. It recounts 2021’s life is stranger than fiction tale of stock manipulation causing GameStop to become the #1 financial property. Paul Dano, Pete Davidson, Vincent D’Onofrio, America Ferrera, Nick Offerman, Anthony Ramos, Sebastian Stan, Shailene Woodley, and Seth Rogen star.
The trailer and subject matter hinted we were entering The Big Short territory. That 2015 similarly themed pic netted 5 Academy nods, including Best Picture and a victory in Adapted Screenplay. Dumb sits at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes based on Ontario reactions. I wouldn’t completely discount it resonating with awards voters. However, I suspect Adapted Screenplay might be the only race where it has a shot of getting in (despite kudos for Davidson and Ferrera in particular for their supporting parts). In other words, anticipate it falling short of The Big Short. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki is a legendary figure in his field and the 82-year-old announced his retirement a decade ago with The Wind Rises. He even picked up an honorary Academy Award in 2014 based on his body of work which includes classics like My Neighbor Totoro, Kiki’s Delivery Service, and Princess Mononoke.
The Best Animated Feature race at the Oscars didn’t begin until 2001 so those aforementioned titles weren’t in the mix. In 2002, Miyazaki’s Spirited Away won the category’s second prize. Howl’s Moving Castle was nominated in 2005 and The Wind Rises contended in 2013 (the planned career capper losing to Frozen).
Retirement was interrupted by the filmmaker with The Boy and the Heron (titled How Do You Live? in Japan) and it is the premiere title at the Toronto Film Festival. The Studio Ghibli production came out in its native country in July and will be out domestically on December 8th.
Early stateside reviews, unsurprisingly, have resulted in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Heron should absolutely nab a spot in the five hopefuls in the animated competition. However, don’t expect it to ever fly past the #2 position. That’s because box office behemoth and critical darling Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse remains firmly perched in first. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.
Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.
So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.
We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.
A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.
Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.
Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.
Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.
If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.
Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).
The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.
And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.
So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!
Predicted Nominees
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
Nearly a decade after Selma was nominated for Best Picture and seven years after 13th was up for Documentary Feature, Ana DuVernay could be back in the awards conversation with Origin. Adapted from Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents, the 2020 nonfiction novel covering various racial issues, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (2021’s Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard) plays the book’s author Isabel Wilkerson. Costars include Jon Bernthal, Vera Farmiga, Audra McDonald, Niecy Nash-Betts, Nick Offerman, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Connie Nielsen, and Finn Wittrock.
At the Venice Film Festival, Origin received an appreciable reception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 85%. The Neon release (scheduled for sometime late this year) could still struggle to break into the Oscar consciousness. Some of the reviews (while generally positive) have enough reservations that this may not be much of a player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In an unusual bit of Oscar history, Annette Bening would probably be a two-time Best Actress recipient if not for Hilary Swank. The latter took home the statue in 1999 for Boys Don’t Cry and Bening was likely runner-up for Best Picture winner American Beauty. In 2004, a late Million Dollar Baby surge gave Swank her second award with Bening’s performance in Being Julia probably in second position.
Nyad has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 20th limited theatrical release and November 3rd Netflix streaming debut. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, makers of the Oscar winning doc Free Solo, direct. It casts the five-time nominee as real-life swimmer Diana Nyad and critics are praising her performance. Same goes for costar Jodie Foster (in supporting), a two-time Actress victor like Swank who would also be vying for her sixth overall nod.
Both are possibilities as reviews are sturdy (100% on RT). I don’t think this wades into the Best Picture conversation. Both Actress and Supporting Actress look crowded already, but it would be foolish to discount either of these acting legends. Lucky for Bening, Ms. Swank doesn’t seem to have anything in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.
Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers has made quite an impact from its Telluride premiere over the weekend. A love and ghost story mashed into one, the writer/director loosely adapts a 1987 novel starring Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal (who scored a Best Actor nod last year for Aftersun), Jamie Bell, and Claire Foy.
Critics are hailing this as an emotionally resonant experience resulting in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Haigh directed Charlotte Rampling to a Best Actress nomination for 2015’s 45 Years. Scott could represent the best possibility in Best Actor, but that race is overflowing with possibilities. Perhaps he can grab onto the fifth slot that his costar Mescal managed a year ago. As for Mescal, Supporting Actor is starting to look even more crowded. It’s a similar story in Supporting Actress for Foy, who’s come awfully close to the final five before for First Man and Women Talking. She may have to wait.
While Best Picture isn’t out of the question, I could totally see Strangers getting an Adapted Screenplay mention and that being its solo nomination. There are usually a couple of writing hopefuls that are up only in that competition. That said, Fox Searchlight knows how to campaign. It’s also worth noting they will be doing so for Poor Things as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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