Four years after their collaboration The Assistant attracted plenty of critical acclaim, director Kitty Green and Julia Garner reunite for the Aussie outback set thriller The Royal Hotel (out Friday in limited fashion). Jessica Henwick, Toby Wallace, and Hugo Weaving also star in the Neon production that premiered at Telluride.
Hotel scored with critics on the fest circuit and the Rotten Tomatoes is 95% (just above the 93% achieved by The Assistant). Inspired by a 2016 documentary, it’s unlikely this will attract the attention of awards voters just as Green’s predecessor couldn’t despite the positive ink. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
There’s an impressive array of Oscar players involved with Foe, the sci-fi thriller that premiered at the New York Film Festival over the weekend. It’s out next weekend via Amazon Studios. Garth Davis directed the 2016 drama Lion, which scored six nominations including Best Picture. Saoirse Ronan is a four-time acting hopeful (supporting for Atonement and lead for Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women). Costar Paul Mescal made the Best Actor quintet last year for Aftersun.
Yet the Big Apple fest resulted in non-fruitful buzz for Foe. With 10 reviews up, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 10% (yes, that’s one fresh). Despite the pedigree, do not expect this to find any friends in the voting branch of the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie arrives in theaters tomorrow and it’s the second animated feature based on the popular Nickelodeon series. Cal Brunker returns to direct with voice cast actors including Mckenna Grace, Taraji P. Henson, Kim Kardashian, James Marsden, and Kristen Bell.
Initial reviews are encouraging with an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That score may go down, but it’s currently higher than the 80% earned by its 2021 predecessor. However, I don’t really see this contending for Best Animated Feature. The first PAW didn’t and there’s other sequels or reboots that could stand a better shot. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, for example, boasts a 96% RT meter. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget has yet to drop and it could emerge as a hopeful. With Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, and Elemental probably already in and Wish on deck, don’t count on these dogs to make it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The period piece Western The Settlers marks the debut directorial effort from Felipe Gálvez Haberle and it is the Chilean pick for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. It premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit in Toronto.
All reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are positive at 100%. I’m not quite sure they’re glowing enough that it makes the final quintet in IFF (though it’s not totally out of the question). Chile has had one winner in the 21st century with A Fantastic Woman and one other nominee in 2012 with No. This would mark the third, but I’m not confident the voters will say yes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Tótem from Lila Avilés has been announced as Mexico’s selection for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. The family drama premiered back in February at the Berlin Film Festival and has been making the rounds at the other fests since.
It will attempt to become the sixth Mexican title in the 21st century to make the foreign five with the Academy. The others were 2000’s Amores perros, 2002’s The Crime of Father Amaro, 2006’s Pan’s Labyrinth, 2010’s Biutiful, and 2018’s Roma (the sole victor). Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are at 95% and there’s a few that are outright raves. I did not have this in my top ten possibilities when I updated my IFF forecast on the blog five days back. I could be underestimating it and we’ll see if it enters that list during my next forecast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The nation of Poland has announced that animated historical drama The Peasants is their pick for contention in International Feature Film at the Oscars. It comes from directors Dorota Kabiela and Hugh Welchman, whose 2017 predecessor Loving Vincent was a nominee for Animated Feature Film.
After its Toronto Film Festival premiere, a small sampling of reviews gives it 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Poles have put themselves in position for the international derby an impressive six times in the 21st century: in 2007 for Katyń, for 2011’s In Darkness, 2014’s Ida (the sole winner), Cold War in 2018, Corpus Christi in 2019, and last year with EO.
I wouldn’t count out The Peasants in either IFF or Animated Feature (though it’s a probably a stretch to think it gets in for both). It hasn’t been on my radar in my forecasts thus far, but don’t be surprised if it pops up in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Creator, out Friday, marks the first feature from Gareth Edwards since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story from 2016. The sci-fi thriller with John David Washington is said to be a visual feast. Reviews themselves are mostly on the plus side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score.
When Dune: Part Two was pushed back to 2024, the easy frontrunner for Visual Effects went with it. Now the VE competition is far more open with hopefuls like Oppenheimer and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (hoping to be the MCU’s first winner) in the mix.
It’s a strong possibility that The Creator is too. If so, it would mark the filmmaker’s second nod in a row for VE (Rogue lost to The Jungle Book seven years back). That’s likely to be the only race where this contends. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Italian drama Io capitano follows the trek of two Senegalese men (Seydou Sarr and Moustapha Fall) to Europe. From Matteo Garrone (who last made Pinocchio with Roberto Benigni), the film premiered at Venice earlier this year and earned its maker the Silver Lion Prize (essentially Best Director). The nine reviews thus far on Rotten Tomatoes stand at 100%.
Already announced as Italy’s selection for Best International Feature, capitano will attempt to be the third feature from that nation to be nominated in the 21st century. The Great Beauty won the race in 2013 and The Hand of God was up in 2021.
While all write-ups thus far are positive, I’m not sure they’re strong enough that it will make the final five. I had this listed at #10 in my new update yesterday. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Brian Duffield’ssci-fi horror tale No One Will Save You is generating some buzz with its Hulu debut this weekend. It did open earlier this week in New York and L.A. so it would qualify for Academy recognition. A practically dialogue free experience, it stars Kaitlyn Dever as a victim of an alien home invasion. The Booksmart lead is drawing positive ink for her performance. For the most part, so is the picture with a 75% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
This is not a genre that receives Oscar attention and it’s unlikely No One will. However, it is worth mentioning that the sound team is receiving lots of praise. The horror genre is one where the audio wizardry probably should gets more awards love. Yet I wouldn’t expect it to start here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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