Tag: academy awards

A French Twist at the Oscars

For the second time this week, there’s been an Oscar bombshell that will undoubtedly change the projections of prognosticators like yours truly. On Tuesday, it was the announcement that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will compete in Actress instead of Supporting Actress (where she was widely expected to compete in and probably win).

Now there’s a french twist in the International Feature Film race. As you may know, countries can only submit one picture for consideration in that competition. France was widely expected to put forth Justine Triet’s acclaimed Anatomy of a Fall, the courtroom drama that received the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Fall, along with the U.K.’s The Zone of Interest from Jonathan Glazer, were seen as the two favorites to win the category. It was also seen as a major threat for nominations in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Sandra Hüller), and Original Screenplay.

Well, the French have a taste for the unexpected as it was announced today that they’re submitting Tran Anh Hung’s The Taste of Things instead. The historical romance starring Juliette Binoche also premiered at Cannes. While it nabbed a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it was seen as lagging behind Fall in terms of submission possibilities. Now it has positioned itself as Zone‘s main competitor for the IFF statue. And one could argue it increases the chances for Binoche to get an Actress nom (even though that derby is looking awfully crowded).

So where does that leave Fall? It could still get into Best Picture, but the odds could be longer. Same for all the other races mentioned above. This isn’t the first time France has surprised us in recent times. In 2019, they chose Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire. While Miserables made the eventual quintet, it was seen as a weaker pick. To be fair – nothing was going to beat Parasite that year.

Then there’s 2007. France went with Persepolis as the selection and it didn’t get nominated. If they’d gone with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, they might’ve had a winner on their hands. After all, it managed four overall mentions in Director (Julian Schnabel), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Anatomy will hope to follow Bell‘s model and maybe even dive into BP. It might face a steep curve based on its home country’s strategy. You can check how it alters my predictions (and it will) when I update them this weekend!

A Killer Development in Best Actress

Last year, the Best Supporting Actress race was upended when it was announced that Michelle Williams of Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in the lead Actress competition. Williams was seen as the strong frontrunner in the supporting field. Her placement in the more crowded Actress derby took her from a predicted winner to a question mark as to whether she’d even make the final five. She did, but lost to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once and she was never looked at as a threat to win. Her omission from the supporting category made it a wide open race where Jamie Lee Curtis (also from Everything Everywhere) eventually prevailed.

And now… history repeats itself. In each one of my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards this year, I have had Lily Gladstone listed #1 in Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Ever since it premiered at Cannes (before its October 20th domestic bow), reviews have indicated she’s a standout performance among heavy hitters like Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, and Jesse Plemons. Like Williams, she was a heavy favorite for supporting. And just like Williams, there’s now an announcement that Gladstone will vie for Best Actress.

What’s it mean? Let’s start with Supporting Actress. With Gladstone out, it is now an uncertain race with no frontrunner. One could emerge when The Color Purple premieres with either Danielle Brooks (who I’ve consistently had ranked second) or Taraji P. Henson (who’s often been third). It potentially opens the door for Emily Blunt to not only nab her first nom for Oppenheimer, but maybe make it to the stage. It also increases the chances for hopefuls like Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), Viola Davis (Air), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) to get in.

As for Best Actress, I believe Gladstone ends up in the grouping. Yet she might not be the automatic favorite like she was in supporting. Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) are serious competitors. Fantasia Barrino from The Color Purple could be as well. And there’s Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Annette Bening (Nyad), Natalie Portman (May December), and Cailee Spaeney (Priscilla) to consider. In other words (like Williams), Gladstone has made her road to gold tougher though still achievable.

When I update my Oscar predictions this weekend, you can expect to see Gladstone in the Actress five. Whether she’s #1 like she’s been in supporting is very much still in question.

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Picture Race (September 18th)

My closer looks at six high profile races for the 96th Academy Awards culminates with, of course, Best Picture. If you missed my posts over the last few days on the four acting derbies and Best Director, you can access them here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Director Race (September 17th Edition)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

Since my last look at the BP race on August 28th, we have experienced the Venice, Toronto, and Telluride Film Festivals. They have provided lots of information as to whether certain contenders are legit or not so much.

That said, it has not changed my top 2 selections of Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer. I have, on the other hand, switched Oppenheimer to first place with Moon in the runner-up spot.

The movie that rose the most of my predicted group is Poor Things, which won the Venice Film Festival and positioned itself as a serious threat to take the top prize. It vaults six spots from 9th to 3rd.

Then there’s American Fiction. Just yesterday, it received the People’s Choice Awards at Toronto. As I discussed yesterday on the blog, 14 of the past 15 winners of that honor ended up nabbing a BP nom. Fiction is still a coin toss in my view. At the moment, I’m including it in the selected ten. Same goes for The Holdovers which was first runner-up for People’s Choice. Those TIFF favorites are in at the expense of The Zone of Interest and Air.

I am winnowing the possible nominees from 25 to 15 and here’s where I have the BP standings post festivals:

Predicted Nominees

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 9) (+6)

4. Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barbie (PR: 8) (+3)

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Maestro (PR: 5) (-4)

10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Air (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Origin (PR: 24) (+11)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Ferrari

The Killer

May December

Asteroid City

One Life

Next Goal Wins

Rustin

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Book of Clarence

Oscar Predictions: American Fiction

Awards prospects for Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction rose precipitously today as it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Per a previous post hours ago, that particular honor has been a major harbinger for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 14 of the past 15 recipients have achieved a BP nod and five have taken the prize.

Fiction marks the directorial debut of Jefferson and the race relations dramedy is led by Jeffrey Wright. Based on buzz from up north, the actor could absolutely snag a spot in Best Actor. Yet as I’ve mentioned before, that is a stacked race that includes hopefuls like Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers).

The supporting cast includes Tracee Ellis Ross, Erika Alexander, Leslie Uggams, Sterling K. Brown, John Ortiz, Issa Rae, Adam Brody, and Keith David. It’s likely Wright (vying for his first nomination) is the feasible nominee if he can break through the crowded pack.

Adapted Screenplay might be the best bet for inclusion, but I can’t stress enough how major the TIFF People’s Choice victory is. Expect it to materialize in lots of BP top tens starting today and I very well may follow suit in my imminent update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Director Race (September 17th Edition)

My closer look at six high profile races for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

As I have with those categories, I am winnowing the field of my predicted nominees from 15 possibilities to 10. At the moment, I believe Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) are guaranteed slots with Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) darn close to wrapping up one himself.

After that, there are plenty of hopefuls vying for the two spots. I do believe two females could populate them via some combo of Celine Song (Past Lives), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), and Ana DuVernay (Origin).

We also have Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) as strong possibilities. Perhaps even Cord Jefferson (director of freshly minted Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner American Fiction) could make a run.

And there’s the unseen contenders in Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple) and Ridley Scott (Napoleon).

Lots to ponder and there are now three new players in my final quintet compared to my previous predictions on August 28th. Here’s where I have the race standing at the moment:

Predicted Nominees

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+6)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

Ridley Scott, Napoleon

Michael Mann, Ferrari

David Fincher, The Killer

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Best Picture is up next!

Toronto Gets Real About American Fiction

The Toronto Film Festival has wrapped and our friends up north have bestowed their People Choice’s Award along with the first and second runner-ups. Just how important is this prize in correlating to a Best Picture spot at the Oscars? Let’s go to the numbers and they’re telling.

Of the last 15 People’s Choice winners from TIFF, 14 received a BP nomination and 5 of them ultimately took the big prize: 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and 2020’s Nomadland.

When it comes to the 1st and 2nd runners-up, 10 of them in the past 15 cycles have received BP attention. That includes three winners in 2012’s Argo, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2019’s Parasite.

So… it’s a key harbinger to Academy attention. And that’s why it’s a tad surprising that Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut American Fiction is the pick. That’s not because it didn’t get great reviews (it’s at 96% via 24 write-ups on RT). It just snuck up on prognosticators like myself with the TIFF love (there’s not even a trailer yet). The dramedy focused on race relations is now undeniably a factor in awards discussions as it moves towards its November 3rd debut. Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance and the Adapted Screenplay are also in the mix for attention.

The first runner-up, unsurprisingly, is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (which many were picking to receive People’s Choice). For Payne, it’s looked at as a return to form after his underwhelming predecessor Downsizing in 2017. This 1970s set Christmas tale appears poised for possible nods in BP (joining earlier Payne efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska) and Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and certainly Original Screenplay.

The Boy and the Heron is Hayao Miyazaki’s latest acclaimed animated feature which opened TIFF. It’s pretty much a given that this will contend in Best Animated Feature though it could be a tall order to overcome frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Here are the facts: TIFF has boosted Fiction in a serious way. Keep an eye on the blog for further Oscar Predictions updates!

Oscar Predictions: The Burial

The Burial saw its awards prospects rise a bit after premiering at the Toronto Film Festival. The courtroom drama from Maggie Betts boasts previous Oscar winners Jamie Foxx and Tommy Lee Jones headlining. Costars include Jurnee Smollett, Mamoudou Athie, and Bill Camp. It hits theaters in limited fashion on October 6th before its Amazon Prime streaming bow the following week.

The word crowdpleaser has been used more than once with its 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating (from 10 reviews thus far). Foxx’s performance is getting the most attention and that could give Amazon Prime a tough choice. It sounds like his work could be campaigned for in lead or supporting. If the decision is Best Actor, Foxx faces what looks like an impossibly crowded field. Supporting Actor isn’t a whole lot better, but there could be wiggle room. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Concrete Utopia

Um Tae-hwa’s disaster pic Concrete Utopia has been doing brisk business in its home country of South Korea as it also played the Toronto Film Festival this week. Lee Byung-hun, Park Seo-joon, and Park Bo-young are among the cast.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% while many reviews aren’t overly effusive in their praise. South Korea has had an interesting recent history in the International Feature Film category at the Academy Awards. In 2019, the nation nabbed its first ever nomination with Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. Not only did it win that race, but it became the first foreign entry to be crowned Best Picture.

Last year, Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave was widely expected to grab one of the five spots in IFF and be the only feasible competitor to All Quiet on the Western Front. While it made the shortlist, it was shockingly omitted from the quintet.

Utopia could make the cut and certainly the shortlist. Yet if voters decided to leave off Decision to Leave, this faces longer odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dream Scenario

Kristoffer Borgli’s dark comedy Dream Scenario premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 10th theatrical release. The A24 effort casts Nicolas Cage as a nerdy professor who inexplicably starts showing up in people’s dreams. Julianne Nicholson, Michael Cera, Tim Meadows, Dylan Gelula, and Dylan Baker costar.

The Dream reviews are mostly on the plus side with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s really only two categories where I see Oscar possibilities. Mr. Cage is being praised for his work. He could be in line for a third Best Actor nod behind 1995’s Leaving Las Vegas (for which he won) and 2002’s Adaptation. He likely came close to his third nod for 2021’s Pig. Yet as I’ve already discussed on this blog, there’s a quintet of contenders who already look strong in the race. That would be Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). It almost seems too easy, right? That’s why I figure at least one of those gentlemen get snubbed. Cage could fill the gap, but there’s other hopefuls in the mix. I think his chances to be named in the Musical/Comedy competition at the Golden Globes is stronger.

Original Screenplay is feasible and perhaps even more so if A24 campaigns hard for it. Nominations in those two derbies are the dream scenario with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)

My closer looks at six of the major Oscar categories turns to Best Actress. If you missed my posts covering the other three acting derbies, you can access them right here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have made a couple of things clearer, as they usually do. While reviews for her were solid, I think Kate Winslet in Lee is now a long shot for inclusion in the final five. On the other hand, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin is more of a possibility than I would’ve originally thought. I do, however, think the film will need to make its mark elsewhere and I’m a little skeptical at the moment.

In Venice, the Best Actress prize went to Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla and that certainly helps her stock. I’m not prepared to put her into the final quintet. The soft frontrunner is probably Emma Stone in the rapturously received Poor Things. It could put her in line to take this race seven years after her victory in La La Land. She skyrockets to fifth to first.

Other strong hopefuls are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, Natalie Portman in May December, and Greta Lee for Past Lives. Annette Bening could find herself in the mix as Nyad. An “overdue for a win” narrative could give her statue, but I could also see her being left out completely.

Then there’s Margot Robbie who is, of course, headlining 2023’s largest hit with Barbie. Some might say there’s no way she gets left out. I would remind people about Tom Cruise’s non-nomination for Top Gun: Maverick. Yet she could absolutely end up making the cut.

I’ve included Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) in the quintet since I began predicting months ago. Her work is the only one mentioned here still unseen. She clings to the five spot for now.

As with the other acting races, I’m winnowing the field from 15 possibilities to 10 and here’s how I see it right now:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 2) (-3)

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Lee

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Regina King, Shirley

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Saoirse Ronan, Foe

Best Director is up next!