Tag: academy awards

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 15th Edition

My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!

Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.

Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Origin

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Peasants

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elemental (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Peasants (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Every Body (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wild Life (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

The Killer

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chevalier (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Golda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Beau Is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Elemental (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Killer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Barbie

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)

10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Past Lives

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish

1 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

Oscar Predictions: The Book of Clarence

The unconventional Biblical epic The Book of Clarence is the sophomore feature from Jeymes Samuel, who earned acclaim for his debut The Harder They Fall in 2021. It premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its planned January 12th opening stateside. LaKeith Stanfield, Omar Sy, Anna Diop, RJ Cyler, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch are included in the sprawling cast.

Originally slated for September of this year, I assumed the mid-January push included an awards qualifying run before the ball drops. That does not appear to be the case as Book should be in contention for the 97th Academy Awards.

Reviews are mostly praising its unique take on the genre with a current 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, while Stanfield and some of the tech work is being singled out, this is a long shot to be an Oscar player. So was the director’s first pic and it came up empty handed at the 94th ceremony. And frankly, the January release date indicates that Sony might not make a major push for it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Silver Dollar Road

2016’s Raoul Peck documentary I Am Not Your Negro earned acclaim and an Oscar nomination in Best Documentary Feature. After its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, Peck’s Silver Dollar Road hits theaters in limited fashion on October 13th. An Amazon Prime streaming bow follows a week later.

An exploration of African-American land ownership, Road hasn’t quite landed the raves that Peck’s Academy contender from seven years ago did. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 76%. That may not be enough to drive it to awards attention, but the filmmaker behind it could help with exposure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: 20 Days in Mariupol

20 Days in Mariupol is a potential double threat at the 96th Academy Awards in the International Feature Film and Documentary Feature derbies. Ukrainian war correspondent Mstyslav Chernov details the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion. It premiered at Sundance and won the Audience prize for World Cinema Documentary Competition.

Reviews were uniformly strong with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Ukraine submitted Mariupol as their pick for International Feature Film. I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility that it gets in. I suspect it has a better shot in Documentary Feature where I had it ranked behind only Beyond Utopia in my update from a week ago. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Monk and the Gun

At the 94th Academy Awards honoring the pictures of 2021, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was a surprise nominee in the International Feature Film race. It became Bhutan’s first contender in the race as it marked the debut of filmmaker Pawo Choyning Dorji.

His follow-up is The Monk and the Gun and it’s been on the fest circuit including Telluride and Toronto. The culture clash dramedy is all thumbs up at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 8 reviews.

Predictably, the Bhutanese pickers have selected it as the hopeful for awards consideration. I’m not sure the reviews are quite strong enough that it makes the quintet, but its inclusion would be less out of the blue than Dorji’s predecessor this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Teachers’ Lounge

Germany has picked The Teachers’ Lounge as its hopeful for Best International Feature Film as they try to keep their impressive track record running in this 21st century. The dramatic thriller from Ilker Çatak premiered earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued playing the festival circuit. Leonie Benesch stars in a role earning acclaim and the pic itself stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 25 reviews.

As mentioned, the submitting nation has seen its share of successes in recent years. Just last year, All Quiet on the Western Front won the IFF derby. Others victors this century are Nowhere in Africa (2002) and The Lives of Others (2006). Six others selections have made the contending quintet.

At this early juncture, England’s The Zone of Interest and France’s The Taste of Things are probably the frontrunners for the statue. Then there’s three spots available for a host of feasible nominees. Lounge is certainly one of them and I wouldn’t underestimate it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten


Earlier this year, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2007 and 2008 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We begin with the obvious. There’s a quintet of titles that would’ve made the dance because they already did. Martin Scorsese’s The Departed was the first title from the legendary filmmaker to win BP and he also won his only statue for direction. It additionally took home Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing and nabbed Mark Wahlberg a Supporting Actor nod.

The other four contenders were Babel from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, picking up 7 nominations with its sole victory in Original Score. Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima got in for BP, Director, Original Screenplay, and won for Sound Editing. Little Miss Sunshine had two trophies for Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin) and Original Screenplay. Helen Mirren’s podium trip in Actress for Stephen Frears’s The Queen was the only win in its six mentions.

So what else? Bill Condon’s Dreamgirls managed to underperform on nominations morning and still lead with 8 overall nods. Jennifer Hudson took Supporting Actress and it was honored for its Sound Mixing. Despite it not garnering BP, Director, or a screenplay mention, I think it gets in with an expanded ten.

Same goes for Blood Diamond which went 0 for 5 but scored key noms in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou), and Film Editing.

Todd Field’s Little Children got BP love at Critics Choice and the Globes with Oscar nods for Actress (Kate Winslet), Supporting Actor (Jackie Earle Haley), and Adapted Screenplay. The acclaim probably puts it in.

Paul Greengrass made the final five for his direction of United 93, which also had a Film Editing mention. It makes my cut as well.

As for the 10th slot, options abound. Al Gore’s environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth was a box office success (especially for the genre) and went 2/2 in its nominations in Documentary Feature and Original Song. I almost picked it to make the ten. Notes on a Scandal received four mentions for its leads Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench and its adapted screenplay and score. You could easily put it in the mix and I wouldn’t argue. Children of Men from Alfonso Cuaron received three noms in Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Clint Eastwood had another WWII epic with Flags of Our Fathers which was up in both sound races. And Borat was a buzzy phenomenon which received an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

Yet I’m going with Pan’s Labyrinth as my final selection. Even though it lost the Foreign Language Film race to Germany’s The Lives of Others, Guillermo del Toro’s creation was up in six races and won three – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Makeup.

That means my expanded ten consists of:

Babel

Blood Diamond

The Departed

Dreamgirls

Letters from Iwo Jima

Little Children

Little Miss Sunshine

Pan’s Labyrinth

The Queen

United 93

I’ll have 2005 up for your reading pleasure soon!

Oscar Predictions: The Royal Hotel

Four years after their collaboration The Assistant attracted plenty of critical acclaim, director Kitty Green and Julia Garner reunite for the Aussie outback set thriller The Royal Hotel (out Friday in limited fashion). Jessica Henwick, Toby Wallace, and Hugo Weaving also star in the Neon production that premiered at Telluride.

Hotel scored with critics on the fest circuit and the Rotten Tomatoes is 95% (just above the 93% achieved by The Assistant). Inspired by a 2016 documentary, it’s unlikely this will attract the attention of awards voters just as Green’s predecessor couldn’t despite the positive ink. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io capitano

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Symphony

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“High Life” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

5 Nominations

Past Lives

4 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscar Predictions: Foe

There’s an impressive array of Oscar players involved with Foe, the sci-fi thriller that premiered at the New York Film Festival over the weekend. It’s out next weekend via Amazon Studios. Garth Davis directed the 2016 drama Lion, which scored six nominations including Best Picture. Saoirse Ronan is a four-time acting hopeful (supporting for Atonement and lead for Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women). Costar Paul Mescal made the Best Actor quintet last year for Aftersun.

Yet the Big Apple fest resulted in non-fruitful buzz for Foe. With 10 reviews up, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 10% (yes, that’s one fresh). Despite the pedigree, do not expect this to find any friends in the voting branch of the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…