Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.
James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.
Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.
Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.
A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.
With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.
Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.
Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.
I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).
It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.
A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.
Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.
While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie, The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge
In 2023, Disney finds itself in the rather rare position of not having a Best Animated Feature frontrunner at the Oscars. The category started in 2001 and 15 of the 22 previous winners have been released by the Mouse House. This summer’s Elemental got decent enough reviews that it probably has a spot in the eventual five nominees.
I’m not sure the same can be said for Wish. The musical from directors Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and featuring the voices of West Side Story gold statue recipient Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine comes out over the Thanksgiving holiday. With its review embargo lifted, the Tomato meter is at only 62%. That is certainly below most Disney animated offerings and it brings awards viability into question.
In my view, Elemental (a bit fresher at 74%) is behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (definitely the favorite) and The Boy and the Heron. I still think it gets in. That leaves two spots. Wish will need to compete with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Nimona, and The Peasants to make the cut. Its legendary studio will need to work their campaigning magic to have two competitors in the race.
Wish may have a slightly better shot at Original Song with DeBose singing “This Wish”. Yet it’s quite possible that Wish could be granted zero nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ridley Scott’s 2000 epic Gladiator was named Best Picture and costar Joaquin Phoenix nabbed his first Oscar nomination for Supporting Actor (he’d eventually get three more mentions and win for Joker). The duo have reunited for Napoleon (out November 22nd). Awards history repeating itself will be a tall order.
The review embargo is lifted with a current Tomatoes meter of 82%. While that’s decent, it’s currently under the 85% of Scott’s 2021 The Last Duel and that failed to attract any attention from the Academy. Scott’s biopic may suffer the same fate. One unexpected development? The number of critics saying it kind of works as a comedy.
Best Actor is probably too crowded for Phoenix to rise and I doubt costar Vanessa Kirby will be a factor in Supporting Actress. Tech nods could come with Production Design being the likeliest opportunity (Sound, Visual Effects, and Costume Design are also feasible). It could also go the way of Duel and come up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On November 29th, Matthew Heineman’s documentary American Symphony plays on Netflix after being on the festival circuit beginning at Telluride. It recounts a year in the life of Grammy winning musician Jon Batiste and family.
Heineman is no stranger to awards hopefuls in the genre. 2015’s Cartel Land made the quintet of nominees. 2021’s The First Wave and last year’s Retrograde were discussed for attention and was up in other precursors though each failed to make the Academy cut.
Symphony is at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and scored six Critics Choice nods at their ceremony over the weekend honoring true life works. It won two with Best Music Documentary and Score (losing the main prize to Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie).
Drawing a correlation between Critics Choice and the Academy is risky. As I’ve discussed numerous times, the doc branch of voters at the big ceremony are unpredictable. Symphony stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet, but it’s gotta make the shortlist first and surprises seem to occur there every year when revealed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.
Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.
The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.
Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is out November 17th with the review embargo having lifted this week. The prequel brings back Francis Lawrence, director of parts II-IV of the massive Jennifer Lawrence franchise. Tom Blyth (as the younger version of Donald Sutherland’s Snow) and Rachel Zegler lead the cast.
The film is nearly certain to have the lowest opening of the five features in the series. It would need to break $100 million not to and it might be fortunate to take in half of that out of the gate. Snakes currently has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes meter in the quintet at 67%, just under the 70% earned by both editions of Mockingjay.
Despite lauded production design and some decent original songs, Oscar voters completely ignored all previous Games. The best and probably only shot that Ballad has is a ballad from Olivia Rodrigo titled “Can’t Catch Me Now”. My guess is the Academy will still show no appetite for Hunger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Marking the 33rd entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels is out Friday amid mixed buzz and lower than normal box office projections. The review embargo that lifted today may explain why.
Nia DaCosta’s sci-fi adventure with Brie Larson reprising her Captain Marvel role currently sports a 58% Rotten Tomatoes score. That ranks 31st out of the 33 pics ahead of only Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Eternals.
To be fair, some critics are calling it a fun if rather slight and forgettable superhero tale. Yet the most negative reviews are calling it one of the worst MCU flicks.
Visual Effects is the most prominent race where these movies get Academy attention. 13 of the previous 32 have. None have won. Unfortunately for The Marvels, even that aspect is being criticized. Lucky for the MCU, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will probably nab a spot in the eventual quintet like its two predecessors did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Acclaimed German filmmaker Wim Wenders could have two bites at the Oscar apple in 2023. His fictional work Perfect Days is the Japanese entry for Best International Feature Film and it stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet.
The other possibility lies in the Documentary Feature race with Anselm. A 3D doc focused on painter and sculptor Anselm Kiefer, it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It is scheduled for a limited stateside release on December 8th. Reviews thus far are mostly complimentary with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes meter.
However, I’m not convinced they’re quite sturdy enough. Anselm is a question mark in my view to even make the shortlist for inclusion. Lucky for its director, he has another movie in the mix with better odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paul B. Preciado’s French documentary Orlando, My Political Biography (out in limited fashion November 10th) explores the title character from a Virginia Woolf novel who changes gender midway through. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit this fall. The Critics Choice documentary nods put it up for Best First Documentary Feature.
With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, there are other docs generating more rapturous acclaim. Yet the subject matter could be tantalizing for awards voters. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the Academy’s shortlist of possibilities when revealed next month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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