When the Sundance Film Festival screened the psychological drama Magazine Dreams back in January, the Best Actor competition at the Oscars appeared to pick up a likely contender at an early stage. Jonathan Majors was on a roll having appeared as antagonist Kang the Conquerer in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with his villainous role in Creed III on deck.
Dreams, while not achieving across the board raves for the picture itself, saw its lead heavily praised. Portraying a mentally unbalanced bodybuilder, Majors immediately garnered awards buzz. Disney (via subsidiary Searchlight) acquired distribution rights with plans for a spirited campaign in the lead actor race. When I wrote my Oscar Predictions post for Dreams at that time, I felt that Majors might be a can’t miss prospect for one of the five spots.
On March 25th, Majors was arrested on various assault charges. Earlier this week, his trial was set for late November. And today, Disney/Searchlight pulled Dreams from December 8th to a dreaded TBD status.
Obviously there are issues bigger than film and this is one of them. The career of Majors will be majorly impacted by the result of the pending proceedings. Yet Oscar speculation is what I focus on with this blog. The rescheduling news probably confirms that this performance is no longer a viable prospect this year or any other. Do not be surprised if Dreams is relegated to a Hulu streaming bow sometime next year with no theatrical output at all. It’s a remarkable turnaround from where we were in January.
Based on the well-regarded 2020 novel by Rumaan Alam, Leave the World Behind has premiered at the AFI Fest prior to its limited November 22nd theatrical run and December 8th Netflix bow. Sam Esmail directs the apocalyptic thriller starring Julia Roberts, Mahershala Ali, Ethan Hawke, Myha’la, Farrah Mackenzie, Charlie Evans, and Kevin Bacon.
Counting Barack and Michelle Obama among its executive producers, this looks to attract plenty of eyeballs during the holiday season. The small number of reviews so far are mostly complimentary (83% on Rotten Tomatoes) while not as strong as the source material’s notices.
Despite the awards friendly cast (Roberts won in 2000 for Erin Brockovich and Ali is a two-time recipient for 2016’s Moonlight and 2018’s Green Book), the chances for World being a contender are likely flatlined. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.
That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.
We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.
This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).
Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.
In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.
The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.
Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).
How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.
Documentarian Asmae El Moudir delves into her family history in The Mother of All Lies, a Moroccan effort that has played Cannes and Toronto to all positive reaction. With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, I’m not sure the 7 reviews up at press time indicate that it will be a heavy awards player. There’s time for that to be rectified, but I’ll note the Critics Choice Association totally ignored it in their nominations this past week.
It is Morocco’s entry for Best International Feature Film and the odds are likely long for inclusion. The submitting nation has yet to receive a nomination despite 18 tries since 1977. If Lies gets recognized by the Academy, a nod in Documentary Feature is more realistic. I suspect 20 Days in Mariupol, which is Ukraine’s pick in IFF and Doc, stands a much better shot at the latter race than this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Amanda McBaine and Jesse Moss’s documentary The Mission is out in limited release after playing the festival circuit including Telluride and London. It examines the killing of American missionary John Allen Chau in 2018. The documentary arm of National Geographic produces.
The team behind The Mission have made acclaimed docs such as 2014’s The Overnighters and 2020’s Boys State. They have not managed to generate attention from the Academy. With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, reviews are fine. However, I’m not confident The Mission will represent their first shot at the big dance. This has not made my top 10 possibilities in previous write-ups. Yet the prospects shot up when the Critics Choice Association named it among their 10 best for 2023 alongside surefire contenders like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie.
Whether The Mission is mentioned in my next update remains to be seen, but it’s certainly on my radar now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For this year’s Animated Feature race at the Oscars, it appears there are three spots already spoken for. That would be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the frontrunner), Elemental, and The Boy and the Heron. We await Disney’s Wish and it’s a strong possibility it makes the dance unless it majorly underwhelms with critics and crowds.
That could leave just one slot left for the five spot and there’s hopefuls. They include the sequel Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and reboot Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. There’s the Polish historical drama The Peasants.
And we have Nimona from Nick Bruno and Troy Quane. The Netflix comedic adventure premiered on Netflix over the summer to solid reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes). Featuring the voices of Chloë Grace Moretz and Riz Ahmed, I’ve had it ranked #5 in a few of my posts (including the most recent update from last weekend). Bruno and Quane are the team behind 2019’s Spies in Disguise. It did not make the quintet in Animated Feature (it probably narrowly missed). Nimona‘s inclusion may come down to whether Netflix throws their campaign attention behind it or Nugget. Don’t be surprised if it’s this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The three-hour heist dramedy The Delinquents from Argentina premiered at Cannes and has been traveling the fest circuit (Toronto, New York) since. From writer/director Rodrigo Moreno, it stars Daniel Elias and Esteban Bigliardi and is out in limited release this week.
Argentina has seen four of their efforts make the International Feature Film five in the 21st century: 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), 2014’s Wild Tales, and last year’s Argentina, 1985 (which may well have been runner-up to All Quiet on the Western Front).
With an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating, don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist in IFF. I’m more skeptical this becomes the fifth Argentinian entry to make the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Errol Morris is one of the best known documentarians in the medium whose The Thin Blue Line (1988) is a genre classic. Two decades back, The Fog of War was crowned best doc at the Academy Awards. His latest is The Pigeon Tunnel and it’s out on Apple TV this weekend after playing the festival circuit in Telluride and Toronto.
It chronicles the life of legendary spy and spy novelist John le Carré. His works such as The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, The Constant Gardner, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy were all made into acclaimed pictures.
Reviews are appreciative with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, at this week’s announcement for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, it managed only a Best Score nod. If Pigeon can manage to make the shortlist when they’re revealed in December, it obviously has a shot. With a strong slate of docs in contention, that might not happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dicks: The Musical was unveiled at midnight screenings during the Toronto Film Festival last month. The outrageous comedy is based on an off-Broadway play with a more risqué title from Josh Sharp and Aaron Jackson. They headline the cast along with Nathan Lane, Megan Mullally, Bowen Yang, and Megan Thee Stallion. Larry Charles, collaborator with Sacha Baron Cohen on Borat and Brüno, directs.
Opening in wider release tomorrow after a limited run on the coasts, it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 74 reviews. This probably won’t even get in the mix for Musical/Comedy races at the Golden Globes. The one Academy prospect worth mentioning are the tunes. There are original tracks separate from the source material and distributor A24 is expected to tout them for contention. One being singled out by critics is “Out Alpha the Alpha” by Ms. Thee Stallion.
Funny R-rated songs rarely make the cut with awards voters. 1999’s “Blame Canada” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut is an outlier. I wouldn’t count on the raunchy ditties making enough ballots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving over 23 years after its predecessor, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget hatches on Netflix this December. Critics got their first look at it this weekend during the London Film Festival. Sam Fell directs with a voice cast including Thandiwe Newton, Zachary Levi (taking over from Mel Gibson), Bella Ramsey, Romesh Ranganathan, Jane Horrocks, Imelda Staunton, and Miranda Richardson.
In 2000, the original Chicken Run was a critical and commercial success with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. It arrived one year before the Academy established their Best Animated Feature race. Had it existed, it’s a safe bet that it would’ve been nominated.
Nugget is more of a question mark. Reviews are not as effusive (it’s at 83% on RT). I would put it behind two other sequels as far as its chances go behind frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. With other hopefuls like Elemental, Wish, and Nimona (among others) in the mix, there may not be enough room in the quintet for this long in the works follow-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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