The American Film Institute (AFI) revealed their ten best list of 2023 just a day after the NBR did the same (they picked a winner Killers of the Flower Moon and nine others). In the past five years, the AFI and Oscar BP match varies. It’s never been less than 5 (as it was in 2018). It topped out at 8 in 2021 while there were 7 in 2019 and 2022 and 6 in 2020.
Your 10 AFI pictures are American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, May December, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Please note that this is the American Film Institute. Therefore foreign entries aren’t eligible. So you won’t see viable BP hopefuls Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest on this list.
Let’s start with movies that made both AFI and NBR. They are Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Those seven titles are mostly looking in solid shape for Oscar inclusion. I can’t imagine more than one of them missing the cut. Past Lives is probably the most vulnerable although its prospects have certainly improved with the precursor love.
Warner Bros should be concerned that The Color Purple missed both cuts. It’s by no means out of the Academy’s BP derby, but it’s looking more shaky than ever. Other notables misses at AFI are Air and Origin. Both of them also missed NBR and appear to be on the outside looking in. The Iron Claw did make NBR in a surprise. A mention here could have really helped, but it didn’t materialize.
On the other hand, AFI’s announcement gives exposure to on the bubble entries like American Fiction, Spider-Man, and especially May December. It seems to be making an impressive late push beyond just its actors and screenplay.
Keep an eye on the blog for all precursor activity as we get closer and closer to Oscar nominations!
Just as the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) honored Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon as their best of 2023, the National Board of Review followed suit today. Like the Big Apple’s group, it’s not one of the more predictive precursors for Oscar glory. However, there are plenty of nominees solidifying themselves for at least making the cut with each victory.
That logic definitely applies to Killers, which took Best Film, Director, and Actress (Lily Gladstone). It’s pretty much of a lock for inclusion in the Academy’s Best Picture 10. Yet a win is far from guaranteed. I currently have it behind Oppenheimer. The last NBR Film recipient that took BP at the Oscars is 2018’s Green Book. Before that it was 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire.
The other big winner at NBR is The Holdovers. It’s the pick for Actor (Paul Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), and Original Screenplay. I’m really beginning to think Randolph is a serious threat to be the gold statue Supporting Actress selection (even though I’ve had her ranked second behind Danielle Brooks from The Color Purple).
Mark Ruffalo is your Supporting Actor for Poor Things while Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse took the Animated prize, Anatomy of a Fall (ineligible for International Feature Film at the Oscars) is the International Film here, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie won Documentary.
It’s actually rare that all four acting recipients from NBR make the Oscar quintet in their respective races. I will say that Gladstone, Giamatti, Randolph, and Ruffalo all stand excellent chances.
Lastly, this Board selects other Top Films beyond their #1. This year the others are (alphabetically) Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari, The Holdovers, The Iron Claw, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. There’s recently been about a 6-7 match correlation with Oscar. Killers is almost certainly in. The same can be said (with some of these more certain that others) for Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Heron and Ferrari are, at best, long shots. The Iron Claw is worth keeping an eye on for a late push.
And please continue to keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as Oscar nominations approach!
Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.
The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).
Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.
One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The New York Film Critics Circle revealed their best of selections for the year as precursors will be coming fast and furious in the days ahead. Critics from the Big Apple doled out two awards each for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, and Todd Haynes’s May December.
It was Killers that took Best Film while Nolan was your Best Director (Oppenheimer also won Cinematography). Those titles (with Oppenheimer first and Killers second) have been 1-2 in my BP predictions for weeks. Eight of the last ten NYFCC Best Film winners ended up on the Oscar BP list and you can expect that trend to continue here.
In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Flower Moon) was the pick as she should make the Academy’s quintet in a competitive field. As for Best Actor, New York made a surprise selection in Franz Rogowski for Passages. While the picture drew acclaim as did the performance, he is not expected to be a factor in the Oscar derby. If more critics prizes come, who knows? But it’s doubtful.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, widely expected to be a factor in Supporting Actress, was successful here for her work in The Holdovers. In Supporting Actor, Charles Melton is now 2 for 2 with Gotham and NYFCC trophies. His inclusion at the Oscars is looking more and more solidified. The Supporting Actor race recipient here has made the Academy’s quintet nine out of the last ten years (more than any other major competition).
A week after taking Best Feature at Gotham, Celine Song’s Past Lives was named Best First Film as its slot in the Oscar BP lineup is looking fairly safe.
May December, in addition to Melton, took Best Screenplay (I have it currently in fifth for Original Screenplay).
In what could be a seesaw battle for critics prizes, The Boy and the Heron was the Animated Film victor over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Anatomy of a Fall, despite not being France’s selection for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is New York’s winner. I have it nabbing a BP spot at the moment, but it’s a question mark.
For Non-Fiction Film, this branch went with the four-hour culinary doc Menus-Plaisirs-Les Troisgros. It has not been on my radar screen for Academy attention.
As for contenders that received no love, NY didn’t give any hardware to Poor Things, Maestro, or The Zone of Interest.
Keep an eye on this blog for all the Oscar precursor activity!
As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.
We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.
You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Monk and the Gun
The Peasants
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Deepest Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carmen
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
The 33rd Annual Gotham Awards were held this evening and it was looking like a potential night of missed opportunities for Celine Song’s Past Lives… until the end. Of the five nominees for Best Feature, the acclaimed A24 romantic drama was really the only one with legit Best Picture aspirations at the Oscars. It did take the top prize over Passages, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One.
This was following its director Song surprisingly not being awarded Breakthrough Director. That instead went to A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One and made the announcement for the big race a bit suspenseful.
Of the 20 pictures that have taken Best Feature at the Oscars (this category has existed since 2004 and there was a tie one year), 12 have become Academy hopefuls for BP. Half of those (The Hurt Locker, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. As a reminder, until this year, contenders for the Gothams were typically lower budgeted titles. Even with the budgetary restrictions removed, some heavy hitters like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon opted not to compete at this ceremony.
As far as Past Lives is concerned, the perception of it losing could’ve hindered its Oscar chances. So it helped itself tonight by doing what it was expected to do. That said, it missed another possible victory with Greta Lee coming up short in Outstanding Lead Performance. Lily Gladstone took the trophy… not for the non-contending Killers of the Flower Moon, but for The Unknown Country. Gladstone seems on her way to a Best Actress slot for Moon. This is another unexpected win for an awards body that frequently provides them.
Outstanding Supporting Performance went to Charles Melton in May December and he might’ve upped his Oscar stock more than anyone. This race saw potential victors like Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) end up behind him. **Note that the Gothams recently switched to ten nominees in lead and supporting without a divide for gender**. I’ve had Melton in my projected quintet recently and am feeling more and more confident about that. While Melton is a long shot to win at the big show, it should be noted that the previous two recipients (Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere) took the Supporting Actor Oscar.
Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall received the Screenplay and International Feature awards. France did not select it as their pick for International Feature Film at the Academy Awards (where it probably would’ve been locked in a fierce competition with The Zone of Interest). Fall is a coin toss for BP inclusion so every little bit helps.
Finally, Four Daughters is your Documentary Feature pick (over 20 Days in Mariupol) as it increases it exposure.
Keep an eye on the blog for an Oscar predictions update in the coming days!
I didn’t do an Oscar Predictions post on Flamin’ Hot when it premiered at South by Southwest back in March or when it began streaming over the summer on Hulu and Disney+. Eva Longoria’s directorial debut tells the true life tale of a man who claimed he invented the title seasoned Cheetos. Jesse Garcia, Annie Gonzalez, Dennis Haysbert, and Tony Shalhoub star.
Reviews were fairly decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this didn’t strike me as an awards contender at the time or now. That’s with one exception and this brings us to Diane Warren. The songwriter has contributed many tracks to feature films and she has 14 Academy nominations to speak for it. This dates back nearly 40 years starting with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, continuing with gigantic hits like “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close and Personal and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon, and including last year’s ceremony with “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman. Despite the impressive number of noms, Warren has yet to win Original Song (though she did pick up an Honorary Oscar for her work earlier this year).
Flamin’ Hot includes the track “The Fire Inside” performed by Becky G and written by the frequent hopeful. It hasn’t been on my radar screen in my previous predictions. Yet now that a planned documentary about Warren seems to be delayed to 2024 (in which I’m sure she’ll have a contending track), one has to consider this song for inclusion. Don’t be surprised if it materializes in my top ten possibilities in my next update. It’s risky to bet against the penner of the tune. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.
James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.
Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.
Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.
A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.
With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.
Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.
Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.
I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).
It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.
A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.
Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.
While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie, The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge
In 2023, Disney finds itself in the rather rare position of not having a Best Animated Feature frontrunner at the Oscars. The category started in 2001 and 15 of the 22 previous winners have been released by the Mouse House. This summer’s Elemental got decent enough reviews that it probably has a spot in the eventual five nominees.
I’m not sure the same can be said for Wish. The musical from directors Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and featuring the voices of West Side Story gold statue recipient Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine comes out over the Thanksgiving holiday. With its review embargo lifted, the Tomato meter is at only 62%. That is certainly below most Disney animated offerings and it brings awards viability into question.
In my view, Elemental (a bit fresher at 74%) is behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (definitely the favorite) and The Boy and the Heron. I still think it gets in. That leaves two spots. Wish will need to compete with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Nimona, and The Peasants to make the cut. Its legendary studio will need to work their campaigning magic to have two competitors in the race.
Wish may have a slightly better shot at Original Song with DeBose singing “This Wish”. Yet it’s quite possible that Wish could be granted zero nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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