Caitlin Cronenberg has entered the feature film family business with the release of Humane over the weekend. The horror thriller stars Jay Baruchel, Emily Hampshire, Peter Gallagher, Enrico Colantoni, and Sebastian Chacon.
Judging by the reaction, Cronenberg is playing in the same genre pool as her dad David and brother Brandon. As with the majority of her brood’s recent works, the verdict is mixed with a RT score of 69%.
That means Oscar attention should be non-existent. David’s Crimes of the Future did manage to make the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist in 2022, but missed the final cut. Brandon’s Infinity Pool also drew a variety of opinions with no awards buzz. The same should hold true here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
If the Oscars ever do bring in a Best Stunt Ensemble race at their ceremony, perhaps a post for something like Boy Kills World would feel more appropriate. This is the latest John Wick style action thriller marking the directorial debut of Moritz Mohr. Bill Skarsgård is the central character in revenge mode after his family bites the dust. Costars include Jessica Rothe, Michelle Dockery, Famke Janssen, Sharlto Copley, Brett Gelman, Isaiah Mutafa, and Andrew Koji.
Out this weekend, this failed to generate any box office heat with less than $2 million. Critics were a tad kinder with a meh 61% RT score. The Wick pics get buzz for potential Sound or VE nods that do not materialize. If they can’t manage it, these perceived knock-offs are far behind. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Stress Positions marks the feature-length debut for filmmaker and musician Thea Hammel. Set in the early days of COVID, the dramedy stars John Early, Qaher Harhash, Faheem Ali, and Amy Zimmer, and Hammel herself. After a Sundance premiere, it was released in limited fashion last weekend.
The Neon distributed effort has generated some glowing notices, but they’re mixed with some so-so takes. It stands at 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. That puts Stress in a non-position for awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After hitting Cannes last May and debuting in European markets in the fall, Jessica Hausner’s dark satire Club Zero is rolling out in limited fashion stateside. Mia Wasikowska plays a boarding school teacher leading a handful of students down an eating disorder rabbit hole. Costars include Sidse Babett Knudsen, Elsa Zylberstein, Mathieu Demy, and Amir El-Masry.
Zero failed to generate significant buzz on the festival circuit and that may explain the time it took for domestic distribution. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mixed 66%. Despite a lot of praise for Wasikowska in particular, this April premiere indicates little faith that awards buzz will come its way. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. Dídi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, Dídi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
13. Zendaya, Challengers
14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Barry Keoghan, Bird
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. André Holland, The Actor
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. George MacKay, The End
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joan Chen, Dídi
2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz
4. Lesley Manville, Queer
5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
5. Leigh Gill, Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
8. Drew Starkey, Queer
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
11. John Lithgow, Conclave
12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing
14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez
As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!
Critics are leaving their negative marks on Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon – Part Two: The Scargiver. Out on Netflix today, the sci-fi epic follows up Part One: A Child of Fire. It debuted on the streamer right before Christmas last year. The sequel features returning cast members Sofia Boutella, Djimon Hounsou, Ed Skrein, Michel Huisman, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Staz Nair, Fra Fee, Cary Elwes, and Anthony Hopkins.
Reviews for Part One were pretty brutal at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes. Scargiver‘s score is even worse at 16%. Nevertheless Child of Fire did make the shortlist of ten for Visual Effects at the Academy Awards. When final nominations came out, it missed the cut of five.
I’m skeptical that Part Two will even make the shortlist at year’s end. There will a Part Two among the VE contenders. It’ll be of the Dune variety and probably not the Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and Director and they can be perused here:
We now move to the big prize. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded half of the eventual nominees: the winner Oppenheimer in addition to Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Barbie and The Holdovers. I did not identify American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, or The Zone of Interest at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
It is a safe assumption that the year’s biggest grosser thus far – Dune: Part Two – has punched its ticket to contention. Everything else, frankly, is guesswork right now. With Cannes coming up, some questions will be answered soon. Followers of the blog, however, know this is a months long process in the BP puzzle. It starts today.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Bird
Blitz
Conclave
Dídi
Dune: Part Two
The End
The Fire Inside
Kinds of Kindness
Queer
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Civil War
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator 2
Hard Truths
Horizon: Am America Saga – Chapter 2
Joker: Folie à Deux
Megalopolis
The Nickel Boys
Nightbitch
The Piano Lesson
A Real Pain
Wicked
I’ll have my first rankings in the six major categories up in short order!
The latest spy action comedy from Guy Ritchie is WWII era set The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. Out Friday, it finds the filmmaker in familiar genre territory with a cast including Henry Cavill, Eiza González, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Alex Pettyfer, Hero Fiennes Tiffin, Babs Olusanmokun, and Cary Elwes.
Ritchie has been pumping out feature after feature in recent years. His war pic The Covenant drew mostly solid reviews, but zero awards attention in 2023. Warfare is generating some decent notices at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. That includes some comparisons to Inglourious Basterds though they’re not near as effusive in praise.
This is the director’s 15th picture and only 2009’s Sherlock Holmes received any Oscar noms for Original Score and Art Direction. That stat should remain the same as Warfare isn’t expected to contend anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
After playing the festival circuit beginning in Cannes nearly a year ago and releasing overseas in autumn 2023, Alice Rohrwacher’s 1980s set romantic dramady La chimera is at last out in limited fashion domestically. Josh O’Connor (soon to be seen in the buzzy Challengers), Carol Duarte, Vincenzo Nemolato, Alba Rohrwacher (younger sibling of the director), and Isabella Rossellini star.
While chimera received a fine response in France and beyond (the RT score is 91%), the Italians chose Io capitano as their submission for International Feature Film at last year’s Oscars. Their choice paid off as it was one of the five nominated pics. Perhaps chimera would’ve made the cut though we’ll never know. Despite its Neon stateside distribution in 2024, this was eligible for the 96th Academy Awards so contention is moot for the 97th. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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