Tag: academy awards

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

My very first glimpse of the acting races, Director, and Picture for the 97th Academy Awards reaches Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

When I did my initial speculation for this competition in 2023 (just about a year ago), it yielded one eventual nominee and that was Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers in addition to fellow nominee Jodie Foster (Nyad). I did not identify Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) or America Ferrera (Barbie) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Performers listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress.

This premiere post highlights plenty of veteran thespians with previous noms. It is worth noting that none of them are previous victors. We also have some newcomers to the awards scene.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Joan Chen, Dídi

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Lesley Manville, Queer

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Renate Reinsve, A Different Man

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Actor is up next!

Oscar Predictions: The Beautiful Game

In 2022, veteran thespian Bill Nighy nabbed his first Oscar nomination for the period drama Living. He’s in coach mode with The Beautiful Game as the leader of a homeless squad of footballers. Thea Sharrock, also behind the camera for the just out Wicked Little Letters with Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley, directs the sports drama. The supporting cast includes Micheal Ward from Empire of Light (where he romanced Ms. Colman), Valeria Golino of Rain Man and Hot Shots! fame, and Susan Wokoma.

Following a limited release, Game hit Netflix last weekend to generally pleasing notices (the RT score is 87%). While Nighy’s performance is predictably being praised, this doesn’t appear poised to generate awards buzz and that probably wasn’t the goal in the first place. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.

This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Leigh Gill, Blitz

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Drew Starkey, Queer

Stanley Tucci, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Willem Dafoe, Kinds of Kindness

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Adam Pearson, A Diffrent Man

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Denzel Washington, Gladiator 2

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Oscar Predictions: Mothers’ Instinct

A pair of Academy Award recipients headline the thriller Mothers’ Instinct from Benoît Delhomme. A remake of a 2018 French flick from Olivier Masset-Depasse (which itself was based on a 2012 novel by Barbara Abel), Jessica Chastain (Best Actress victor for 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Anne Hathaway (Supporting Actress honoree for 2012’s Les Miserables) are feuding housewives in the 1960s. Josh Charles, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Caroline Lagerfelt costar.

Stateside distribution is still being worked out, but Instinct came out in the U.K. this past week. Reviews thus far are a bit on the basic side with a 58% RT rating. Despite a handful of nominations and the two wins between the two leads, this does not appear to be an awards player. The only exception could be the period piece costumes, but this could well be forgotten by the time ballots are being filled out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

The previous four features in Universal’s MonsterVerse franchise have yielded precisely one Oscar nomination and it was for the movie without Godzilla in the title. That would be the second feature 2017’s Kong: Skull Island for its Visual Effects (it lost to Blade Runner 2049). The other entries with the jolly green giant on the poster – 2014’s Godzilla, 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and 2021’s Godzilla vs. Kong – didn’t make the VE competition or any other.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is out this Easter weekend and reviews are mixed. Adam Wingard directs with Rebecca Hall, Brian Tyree Henry, Dan Stevens, Kaylee Hottle, Alex Ferns, and Fala Chen among the human cast. The monster mash sits below the 76% RT score that (strangely enough) Godzilla, Skull Island, and Godzilla vs. Kong share. The 62% rating is above the 42% that King of the Monsters was saddled with.

Visual Effects is really the only possibility unless there’s a surprise Sound nod. The VE are being singled out by some writers. What’s transpired already in the MonsterVerse suggests it’s an uphill battle for final five inclusion. Academy voters also honored the title character just last year when Japan’s Godzilla Minus One won the category (giving Godzilla his first gold statue). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dogman

Luc Besson’s Dogman is out in limited release stateside after premiering at the Venice Film Festival last fall and hitting France months ago. The crime thriller casts Caleb Landry Jones (of Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri fame) as a troubled canine lover. Costars include Jojo T. Gibbs, Christopher Denham, Clemens Schick, John Charles Aguilar, and Grace Palma.

Unsurprisingly, many reviews are calling this is a bizarre watch. That’s par for the course from the man who made The Fifth Element and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. Critical reaction is mixed with a 62% RT rating. Unlike those aforementioned titles, don’t look for Dogman to be in the mix for a Visual Effects nom from awards voters. Neither made the Oscar cut though Element nabbed a Sound Editing mention. Despite plenty of kudos for Jones’s performance, don’t expect this to contend for any other prizes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Dead Don’t Hurt

Western The Dead Don’t Hurt marks Viggo Mortensen’s second directorial feature after 2020’s Falling. In addition to his behind the camera work, he’s the star, writer, coproducer, and even composed the score. It premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival and is being readied for a semi-wide May 31st theatrical bow. Vicky Krieps, acclaimed alongside Daniel Day-Lewis for 2017’s Phantom Thread, co-headlines with a supporting cast including Garret Dillahunt, Solly McLeod, and Danny Huston.

Reviews out of Canada were more respectful than gushing with an 85% RT rating. Mortensen, a two-time nominee for Eastern Promises and Captain Fantastic, is unlikely to see any of his many jobs on the project rewarded during awards season. That goes for everything in the picture. If there’s a slight chance for recognition, it would be with Krieps (whose performance is being singled out). The better odds are that The Dead is forgotten by voters a few months from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Problemista

The 2024 edition of South by Southwest recently concluded, but Problemista from Julio Torres premiered at the fest last year. Distributor A24 has at last put it into theaters this month. The quirky pic is written and directed by and stars Torres, a former SNL scribe who also co-created the HBO series Los Espookys. His directorial debut features Tilda Swinton, RZA, Greta Lee, Catalina Saavedra, James Scully, and Isabella Rossellini.

Reviews are mostly complimentary for the black comedy with an 89% RT score and particular kudos for the script and Swinton’s work. The reaction isn’t strong enough for this to have any Oscar viability. Maybe the Indie Spirit Awards will give Torres a nod in the First Screenplay competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Daddio

Christy Hall’s Daddio isn’t out in theaters until June 28th, but festival goers in Telluride and Toronto checked out the two-hander last fall. Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn make up the cast with the latter playing an NYC cabbie and the former as his fare. It marks the debut for the director who also scripted.

Picked up by Sony Pictures Classics, plenty of critics are hailing both performances as well as Hall’s screenplay. The RT score is 83%. I’m just not convinced this will stick with voters come nomination time. Penn, a two-time winner for Mystic River and Milk, and Johnson (yet to be in contention) could get campaigns. I wouldn’t count on them taking a ride to the 97th ceremony (though Johnson has a better shot with this over Madame Web). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire attempts to match its 2021 predecessor’s grosses when it debuts this weekend. Chances are that it will also match its Oscar prospects. The fifth feature in the franchise that began in 1984, Gil Kenan directs with Jason Reitman coproducing and cowriting. Stars from Afterlife three years back return including Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Celeste O’Connor, and Logan Kim. Cast members from 40 years ago are in attendance – Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and William Atherton. Kumail Nanjiani and Patton Oswalt additionally join the bustin’.

Critical reaction today gives it the coldest Rotten Tomatoes score of all Ghostbusters at 47%. The original nabbed 95% while its 1989 sequel only managed 55%. 2016’s reboot was rated 74% while Afterlife received 64%.

The Academy’s history with this series is limited to part 1. Ray Parker Jr.’s inescapable theme song was up for Best Song (losing to Stevie Wonder’s “I Just Called to Say I Love You” from The Woman in Red) and the Visual Effects were in contention (coming up short to Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom). Three ceremonies ago, Afterlife was shortlisted for VE but didn’t make the final five cut. The special effects (which some reviewers are criticizing) are highly unlikely to catch the attention of voters this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…