Tag: academy awards

Oscar Predictions: Oh, Canada

Playing a dying documentary filmmaker recounting his life, on paper Oh, Canada sounds like the kind of project that could give 74-year-old Richard Gere his first Oscar nomination. It reunites the actor with his American Gigolo collaborator Paul Schrader some four and a half decades later. Schrader is adapting the Russell Banks novel, who also wrote Affliction. The director’s version of that source material resulted in Nick Nolte being up for Best Actor in 1998 and James Coburn winning Supporting Actor.

Canada premiered in France at Cannes. The supporting cast includes Jacob Elordi (playing Gere’s younger self), Uma Thurman, Michael Imperioli, Victoria Hill, Penelope Mitchell, and Kristine Froseth.

There’s only a smattering of reviews and they’re mixed with a current 60% RT score. Schrader has been a busy man lately. 2018’s First Reformed nabbed him a nod for Best Original Screenplay (somehow his first). Follow-ups The Card Counter and Master Gardener were not on the radar of voters. It’s highly unlikely this will be either.

As for Gere, that acting nom should remain elusive. He was rather famously omitted for 2002’s Chicago, despite the movie taking Best Picture and four of his costars being recognized. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Kinds of Kindness

The previous two features from Yorgos Lanthimos – 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things – combined for 21 Oscar nominations. This includes two Actress victories for Olivia Colman in the former and Emma Stone in the latter. Mere months after Poor Things, Lanthimos’s follow-up Kinds of Kindness has premiered at Cannes prior to its June 21st stateside bow. The three hour anthology has Ms. Stone headlining alongside Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

Unlike his two Academy contending predecessors, Lanthimos reunites with writing partner Efthimis Filippou. They collaborated on the filmmaker’s earlier projects Dogtooth (2012), The Lobster (2016), and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017).

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Several critics, while praising many aspects, are calling this an easier picture to admire than like. This will be a true test of the Academy’s affinity for its maker. Those last two projects yielded five acting nominations and the aforementioned two wins. Stone and Plemons in particular are generating plenty of kudos. I do question whether Searchlight hones in on any of the cast for recognition. Perhaps SAG will take notice. In my previous prediction posts, I singled out Hong Chau for Supporting Actress consideration. I doubt that happens now. The best bet could be a sole Screenplay nod.

I wouldn’t discount Kinds receiving the kindness of awards voters. That said, I believe it faces more of an uphill battle than Lanthimos’s recent things that the Academy favoured. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bird

English filmmaker Andrea Arnold has been a Cannes favorite for years. Three of her works – Red Road (2006), Fish Tank (2009), and American Honey (2016) – received jury awards at the French fest. Yet her exposure to the Academy is limited to 2004’s Wasp which took Best Live Action Short Film at the ceremony two decades ago.

Arnold is hoping her longer film Bird gets love from Cannes and the Academy. Described as both gritty and full of heart, it features Barry Keoghan, Franz Rogowski, Nykiya Adams, Jason Edward Buda, James Nelson Joyce, and Jasmine Jobson.

With a 92% RT rating, some critics hint this could be the auteur’s biggest commercial breakout. It’ll be interesting to track who picks up stateside distribution rights. Whoever does will likely mount a campaign in several categories. One could be for Actress where newcomer Adams plays the 12-year-old central character. While her odds could be shaky for Oscar attention, I’d already pencil her in for a spot in Best Newcomer at the BAFTAs. There’s also Keoghan who was up two years ago in Supporting Actor for The Banshees of Inisherin. My previous prediction posts had him listed as a hopeful in Actor, but it certainly sounds like he is in support mode.

I have had Bird in my very early 10 picks in Best Picture. While reviews are positive, that could be a reach. It might depend on how hard its eventual studio pushes to know how high this flies in BP, Original Screenplay, and beyond. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Megalopolis

Instead of saying it’s made with spirit, you can accurately say Megalopolis was made with spirits. As in wine because legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola reportedly sold a hefty portion of that business to finance the $120 million production. This is Coppola’s dream project (in development since the late 1970s) and the sci-fi drama influenced by the fall of the Roman Empire has premiered at Cannes. The large cast includes Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Jason Schwartzman, Talia Shire, Grace VanderWaal, Laurence Fishburne, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.

Some reaction from the Riviera is heaping praise on the long gestating picture. There’s plenty more calling it a mess (though a wildly ambitious one) and you can see it in the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

At 85, Coppola is rightfully regarded as one of cinema’s most important figures. That said, for every The Godfather, The Conversation, and Apocalypse Now, there’s some flops and flicks that received middling reviews. His 2011 predecessor Twixt, for example, came and went with scant fanfare.

Despite the high profile surroundings with this unveiling, awards prospects are shaky and that might be generous. I suppose tech races like Production Design or Costume Design could happen, but I think it’s entirely possible the Academy ignores this altogether. One might think Visual Effects is doable yet that aspect is receiving its share of disparagement. The large cast should come up empty-handed too. The three Godfather sagas saw 10 performers get nominated. Based on the write-ups I’ve seen, I don’t see any of the thespians here contending. Same goes for Coppola and his movie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

At the 88th Academy Awards covering the films of 2015, Mad Max: Fury Road received 10 nominations (the second highest behind The Revenant) and the most victories with 6. The wins were for Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. It came up short in Picture, Director (George Miller), Cinematography, and Visual Effects.

For the 97th Oscars, voters will have prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga to consider. Miller’s fifth feature in the franchise that began 45 years ago has screened at Cannes prior to its Memorial Day weekend domestic release. Anya Taylor-Joy plays the title character portrayed by Charlize Theron in Fury Road. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Tom Burke, Alyla Browne, Lachy Hulme, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

Early reaction is certainly encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critics are claiming it’s on par with the predecessor while others say it doesn’t quite measure up (Road‘s RT score was 97%).

Saga‘s biggest hurdle to break into Picture and Director could be another sci-fi series entry from earlier this year and that is Dune: Part Two. That pic has likely punched its ticket in those two big races and there may not be room for Furiosa. That said, all those tech competitions could be in play and it could fall short to Dune in a few of them. Sound Editing and Mixing has since become one category so a best case scenario could be seven nods. There will some internet chatter for Hemsworth in Supporting Actor, but I suspect it will remain just that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: IF

After massive box office success with the two A Quiet Place horror pics, John Krasinski is in family mode when IF debuts Friday. Combining live-action with animation, Ryan Reynolds headlines the human cast with a ginormous list of familiar faces voicing imaginary friends from Steve Carell to Emily Blunt to George Clooney to Matt Damon and Bradley Cooper and many more.

The review embargo is up and reaction is mixed. With a 59% RT score, any awards prospects are shaky. The one exception could be Visual Effects, but I don’t even think it’s guaranteed to make the shortlist (let alone the final five). In other words, putting this anywhere in your Academy forecast represents a big… well, you know. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Second Act

The Cannes Film Festival is underway and the opening feature is from an auteur named Quentin! Not that one. The Second Act is a French comedy about the first AI directed movie and it’s the latest from filmmaker Quentin Dupieux. Also… don’t get this confused with Second Act, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com from 2018 (because why would that open Cannes??). Léa Seydoux, Vincent Lindon, Louis Garrel, and Raphaël Quenard star.

Clocking in at a mere 82 minutes, initial reactions call this a very meta experience. Reviews themselves are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 60% based on a handful of critics.

I find it highly unlikely that the French will select this as their contender for International Feature Film months down the line. Any awards prospects seem shaky at best. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Last Stop in Yuma County

Francis Galluppi appears to be a writer/director to watch based on reaction to his debut The Last Stop in Yuma County. The crime thriller is out in limited fashion and on streaming services this weekend. Critics are praising the tight B-movie with an effective albeit familiar script, according to various write-ups. The cast includes Jim Cummings, Jocelin Donahue, Sierra McCormick, Nicholas Logan, Michael Abbott Jr., Connor Paolo, Alex Essoe, Robin Bartlett, Sam Huntington, Barbara Crampton, Gene Jones, Faizon Love, and Richard Brake.

With a sturdy 98% on RT, this could be a cult classic in waiting. It’s doubtful that the genre exercise will flex any muscle with awards branches. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Mother, Couch

After playing the Toronto Film Festival in September, Mother, Couch sat around for awhile waiting for distribution. Film Movement picked it up in February and it is slated to hit screens this July. The family dramedy was written and directed by Niclas Larsson and is based a 2020 novel by Jerker Virdborg. Ellen Burstyn plays the first half of the title as she inexplicably and indefinitely sits on a department store furnishing in the second half of the title. This befuddles her children played by Ewan McGregor, Rhys Ifans, and Lara Flynn Boyle. Other costars include Taylor Russell, F. Murray Abraham, and Lake Bell.

Despite a fine cast (including previous winners Burstyn and Abraham), Couch was not a festival highlight according to most critics. The RT score is only 36% and you can count on this pic sitting out awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Fancy Dance

Lily Gladstone’s work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year was met with nominations across the awards spectrum with victories at the Golden Globes and SAG. Yet she came up short (and was almost certainly runner-up) at the Academy Awards when Emma Stone took Best Actress for Poor Things.

She may have another at bat with Fancy Dance. The drama/mystery from Erica Tremblay casts Gladstone as an Oklahoman searching for her missing sister while caring for her niece. Isabel DeRoy-Olson, Ryan Begay, and Shea Whigham costar. After its premiere at Sundance in January, Dance is in theaters on a limited basis June 21st before an Apple TV streaming start on June 28th.

Reviews out of Park City were impressive and this stands at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not as high profile a project as Gladstone’s preceding picture. Apple will need to put together an aggressive campaign for its lead to contend in Actress for a second year in a row. Her chances are lower this time around to make the Academy’s dance, but it’s possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…