Oscar Predictions – The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Tolkien goes anime when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim marches into multiplexes this weekend. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s blockbuster trilogy,
Kenjii Kamiyama helms the fantasy adventure with Brian Cox, Gaia Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing vocal support.

Word-of-mouth is rather middling with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 58 Metacritic. While the live-action LOTR flicks all received Best Picture noms (with capper The Return of the King winning), Rohirrim appears on the outside looking in. The Animated Feature five already seems set with The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Surprises are always possible, but it won’t be this getting into the race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Complete Unknown

James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is picking up the kind of precursor recognition that may lead to a Best Picture nomination. Whether it ultimately makes the cut is, well, a complete unknown. The Fox Searchlight release is out Christmas Day with Timothée Chalamet as the legendary singer and Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy providing support.

The review embargo is lifted with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and 70 on Metacritic. It is fair to say critical reaction is more mixed than plenty of other contenders. Yet praise for Chalamet’s work is consistent and he appears poised for his second Academy nod after being up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. This time he’ll be playing in lead and he’s a threat to win. As for the rest of the cast, Norton (as Pete Seeger) just landed a Golden Globe nod. His inclusion at the Oscars is possible, but not a slam dunk like the headliner. Fanning and Barbaro are both generating complimentary notices, but Supporting Actress may be too crowded.

Down the line nods like Costume Design, Production Design, and (especially) Sound are achievable though I wouldn’t be surprised to see none of those ultimately materialize. The biggest question mark is indeed Picture. I don’t see Director and Adapted Screenplay happening. Unknown has made the AFI and NBR top tens and got a Best Motion Picture (Drama) slot at the Globes where they honor six hopefuls.

Mangold’s Walk the Line from 2005 (his biopic about Johnny Cash) received a handful of nods. Reese Witherspoon took home the Actress statue as June Carter Cash while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for Actor. It contended in Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound. I see a range of possibilities for Complete. One is Chalamet being nominated (a given) and that’s it. Under that scenario, a win could be trickier. He could also be in the mix with perhaps just Sound or another tech race or two. A best case scenario would be Unknown grabbing the ninth or tenth BP spot along with a combo of the aforementioned. It that happens, it’ll be an honor for it to be nominated in the biggest race while Chalamet goes for the victory. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

82nd Golden Globes Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for perhaps the most recognizable Oscar precursor show were unveiled this morning. We now know the pictures and personnel contending for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, airing January 5th with Nikki Glaser hosting.

There are always surprises to be found with unexpected additions and subtractions in the cinematic races and that held true. I went 74 for 92 in my predictions. Of the 15 feature film categories, I went 6/6 in five of them.

As I projected, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez led the way with 10 nominations followed by The Brutalist‘s seven and Conclave‘s 6. Let’s break down each competition with how I did and some commentary on where I see the races currently.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in over Sing Sing. Perhaps the biggest shocker of the day is Sing Sing only generating one nomination for its lead Colman Domingo in Actor (Drama). Nickel Boys and September 5‘s noms mark their sole mentions. The Brutalist is probably out front but I wouldn’t sleep on Conclave.

Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Pérez could emerge here considering the haul this morning though Anora and Wicked (to a slightly lesser degree) are possibilities.

Best Director

Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Berger (thought he was my runner-up) or Kapadia. Instead, I predicted Jon M. Chu (Wicked) and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. The latter is a surprising omission three years after he missed the cut at Oscar. Corbet is the favorite in my estimation even if it doesn’t take Motion Picture (Drama).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)

How I Did: 4/6

Anderson (my runner-up) and Torres are in contention over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Jean-Baptiste is racking up critics awards and her omission is a bit unexpected. If Ronan can’t make it here, her Oscar odds are in serious trouble. This could come down to Jolie vs. Kidman. Fun fact: none of the pictures represented here are up for Best Drama (the only acting category where that is the case).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 6/6

No surprises here as Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are vying for the statue.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)

How I Did: 5/6

Runner-up Adams is in over June Squibb (Thelma). Madison has the edge though I wouldn’t discount Erivo, Gascón, or Moore for the upset.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

How I Did: 4/6

LaBelle and Plemons in with Michael Keaton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) and Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool & Wolverine) out. I don’t really think there’s a frontrunner though Eisenberg and Powell are maybe in the lead with Grant as a legit threat.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 6/6

Frankly I’m a little shocked I went 6 for 6 as there’s lots of contenders in this derby. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) is a snub many are pointing out. As for the winner, this is Grande vs. Saldaña.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Culkin is getting lots of critics prize love while Pearce and Washington are threats. I didn’t have Norton or Strong and instead went with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). I still think both of those performers could get into the Oscar dance.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/6

Had Sing Sing instead of A Real Pain as Anora looks to nab this one.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

This went as planned and The Wild Robot looks to capture this prize with Flow (a critics darling) looking to disrupt that plan.

Best Foreign Language Motion Picture

Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

How I Did: 5/6

Logic says Perez, but Kapadia’s directing nod opens for the door for Light.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/8

Went with Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two and not Romulus and The Wild Robot. Dune missing is head scratching. This would be a good place to honor Wicked though Deadpool is the year’s largest grosser.

Best Score

Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

This looks kinda wide open to me at the moment, but The Brutalist might be the slight favorite.

Best Song

Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 3/6

The blasted Song category represents my worst performance as “Beautiful” and “Compress” and “Forbidden” make the playlist over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, and “Piece by Piece” from the same titled feature. Betting odds favor Pérez and I’d go with “El Mal” though “Sky” is a possibility.

I’ll have winner predictions shortly before the January 5th ceremony and here’s a breakdown of all the features nominated.

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Challengers, A Real Pain, Wicked, The Wild Robot

3 Nominatons

A Complete Unknown

2 Nominations

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, The Last Showgirl

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Heretic, Hit Man, Kinds of Kindness, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, Sing Sing, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Oscar Predictions: The Six Triple Eight

Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.

This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.

Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Return

Out in limited fashion today, The Return reimagines no less than Homer’s Odyssey with Uberto Pasolini directing. The Bleecker Street release premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and it reunites Ralph Fiennes and Juliette Binoche, stars of 1996’s Best Picture winner The English Patient. Charlie Plummer, Tom Rhys Harries, and Marwan Kenzari provide support.

Reviews are respectful with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 68 on Metacritic. As expected, praise for the leads are present with some complaints about pacing. Fiennes is in the 2024 Best Actor mix, but not for this. His performance in Conclave is expected to earn him a slot. Don’t expect any noms or buzz to greet The Return at this late stage in the awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

AFI Awards 2024: Reaction

Each year the American Film Institute (AFI) names their ten best films of the year and it’s become a reliable bell weather for 7-8 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars. How about a look at the past 15 years and their track record since the Academy expanded to more than five BP contenders?

2009: 5/10 match

2010: 9/10

2011: 7/9

2012: 8/9

2013: 7/9

2014: 6/8

2015: 6/8

2016: 7/9

2017: 7/9

2018: 5/8

2019: 7/9

2020: 6/8

2021: 8/10

2022: 7/10

2023: 8/10

There’s an important caveat as this is the American Film Institute. Therefore movies considered international do not make the cut. They often get a “special” award and that was the case with Roma, Parasite, and The Banshees of Inisherin.

Today’s AFI announcement was surprising in the sense that there was only one. Emilia Pérez was thought by most to be ineligible for the 10 due to its foreign flavor, but it managed to make the cut. The AFI list is as follows:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Wicked

Not a shocker in the group. This seems like a key inclusion for Nickel Boys and A Real Pain in solidifying their status as legit BP players. I suspect that if some prognosticators knew Emilia would be eligible, several of them would’ve gone 10/10.

Let’s analyze, shall we? The AFI has a habit of naming mainstream pics that the Academy ignores. Examples in the last decade include Into the Woods, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Zootopia, Wonder Woman, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Soul, Nope, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Note the amount of animated features. This is where a nod for The Wild Robot wouldn’t have been unexpected. The fact that it didn’t land here is an indication of its chances in the Academy’s BP derby… none. The same might be said for Gladiator II. It’s been out of my top 10 and I had it placed 13th in Other Possibilities last weekend. Don’t be surprised it drops out of the top 15 in my next update.

Other features that could have benefitted from a spot here include The Substance, September 5, Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door, and recent Gotham recipient A Different Man.

That said… we don’t expect this to be the Oscar top ten…

Do we?!? It sure could be. Yes, that would be the first time AFI and the Academy match 10/10. Yet the only difference I have right now is The Substance over A Complete Unknown and the latter seems to be picking up some steam. We still have Critics Choice and their top ten en route. They’re another pretty reliable barometer. I’ll say right now, though, that at least 8 of AFI’s picks will be the Academy’s and perhaps more…

Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor chatter!

The NBR Gets Wicked

The National Board of Review often marches to the beat of its own awards drum when it comes to selecting their annual pictures and performers. In 2014, only four of their eleven top movies ended up generating an Academy nomination for Best Picture. In the past decade, there’s been one other year with just four and three years where it was five and two where it was six. There’s three other years where it’s seven and that’s as high as it gets. In most years, NBR names a Best Film with ten other favorite movies listed alphabetically. During that time period, here’s just a sampling of NBR top films that probably never came close to an Oscar BP nod: Fury, The LEGO Movie, Hail, Caesar!, Patriots Day, Baby Driver, Downsizing, Waves, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Red Rocket, and Ferrari.

I give all that context because there were some unexpected selections in their list today… but not really given their history. Jon M. Chu’s Wicked is Best Film. That one is anticipated to generate an Academy BP slot. This particular group often goes with blockbuster material like Wicked for their winner. Recent examples include Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015 (guess we should’ve seen that Furiosa nod coming) and Top Gun: Maverick in 2022.

Some others… not so much. The other ten are as follows: Anora, Babygirl, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Juror #2, Queer, A Real Pain, and Sing Sing. Only half of those features (Wicked, Anora, Conclave, A Real Pain, Sing Sing) are currently in my Oscar BP ten. Babygirl, Furiosa, Juror #2, and Queer likely stand little chance at the big dance while A Complete Unknown and Gladiator II have better shots.

There are some notable omissions from the list like The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Dune: Part Two. That said, recent BP victors The Shape of Water, Parasite, and CODA were nowhere to be found with NBR.

The Wicked love continued in Director with Jon M. Chu being named. You have to go all the way to Martin Scorsese and 2006’s The Departed for the last NBR/Oscar match.

Nicole Kidman is your Best Actress for Babygirl and Daniel Craig is Best Actor for Queer. Both are considered bubble candidates for Oscar (I currently have Craig in and Kidman out). I will note that 8 of the last 10 NBR Actress winners have achieved an Academy spot. In Actor, it’s also 8.

Kieran Culkin racked up another Supporting Actor prize (right after the New York Film Critics Circle) for A Real Pain and Elle Fanning is Supporting Actress (a bit of an out of nowhere pick) for A Complete Unknown. The previous 10 Supporting Actor victors for NBR received Oscar attention as Culkin is expected to. For Supporting Actress, it’s 8.

In other NBR news for categories that correlate to the Academy Awards, Hard Truths and Sing Sing are your respective Original and Adapted Screenplay recipients. Flow snatched another Animated Feature trophy while The Seed of the Sacred Fig is their #1 International Feature. The Documentary prize went to Sugarcane with Nosferatu triumphant in Cinematography.

Keep an eye on this blog for all precursor Oscar chatter!

The New York Critics Circle The Brutalist

Seventeen out of the past 20 New York Film Critics Circle recipients for Best Film have achieved a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars including winners No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker, and The Artist. Will Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist join that list? It’s almost a certainty. The epic historical drama won the NYFCC top prize in addition to Adrien Brody’s performance for Best Actor. These are the first major precursor honors for the pic I currently have ranked #1 in my BP derby (same goes Brody). It’s highly unlikely to be the last.

Corbet, however, did not take Director. That honor went to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys and his film also took the Cinematography prize. I currently don’t have Ross in my director lineup though I do have it scoring a BP nod. 11 out of the previous 15 behind the camera winners did end up with an Oscar nomination.

In Best Actress, it was Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Half of the previous ten NYFCC leading women received Academy recognition. That seems appropriate as Jean-Baptiste’s odds are around 50/50 in my view.

That’s not the case in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) took that Big Apple competition. He’s widely expected to be one of the final five and perhaps even make a podium walk.

The NYFCC did manage to provide a shocker with Carol Kane taking Supporting Actress for the little-seen Between the Temples. The veteran performer is not expected to contend at the Oscars.

Finally, All We Imagine as Light (which India did not submit as their horse in International Feature Film) is the Best Foreign Language Film. No Other Land, which could be a player in the Academy’s Documentary Feature race, was NYFCC’s Best Non-Fiction Film. Both of those pics won their respective categories at the Gotham Awards yesterday as well. Latvian tale Flow is the Best Animated Feature and it should follow suit with Oscar.

Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor coverage!

A Different Man Shocks at Gotham

Tonight’s Gotham Awards were not expected to provide any major clues as to how the awards season will play out. That might hold true, but I do think the winner of Best Feature could be a preview for one picture in particular.

Adam Schimberg’s A Different Man was the surprise winner in the big race over the heavily favored Anora from Sean Baker. For those that didn’t believe Anora would away with the top prize from the New York group that honors indie movies, the runner-up pick would’ve been RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys. Both of them are anticipated to nab BP nods (especially Anora). And while that still is the case, it does make me question all the prognosticators who have Anora ranked #1 (a lot do). I haven’t yet and have always slotted it 2nd or 3rd behind (lately) The Brutalist or Conclave. By the way, Challengers and Babygirl were the other contenders.

So… should we be thinking about A Different Man in Best Picture? I wouldn’t make that leap. However, it’s worth noting that four of the past five Gotham Feature victors managed a BP slot: 2019’s Marriage Story, 2020’s Nomadland (which won), 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once (another winner), and last year’s Past Lives. The exception is The Lost Daughter from 2021. Don’t expect Different to all of a sudden pop into my top 10 in BP, but you might see it between 11-15 in other possibilities when I update.

The no-show in victories for Anora continued in Director as RaMell Ross was honored for Nickel Boys. Strangely enough, this was the first year where the Gothams bestowed an individual behind the camera prize so comparisons cannot be made. That said, Ross is certainly a possibility at the Oscars though I currently don’t have him in my quintet.

The Gothams do not separate gender in their lead and supporting races as of 2021. Voters clearly were taken with Sing Sing as Colman Domingo was Outstanding Lead Performer and Clarence Maclin was Outstanding Supporting Performer.

For Domingo, he beat out his anticipated competitor in Best Actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as well as plenty of Actress possibilities like Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Demi Moore (The Substance), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Since 2021, only Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) received an Oscar nod after winning this category.

Maclin was selected over other potential Supporting Actor rivals including Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Yura Borisov (Anora), and A Different Man‘s Adam Pearson. Supporting Actress hopefuls Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) were also in the mix. The winners of supporting here in 2021 (Troy Kotsur for CODA) and 2022 (Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere) went onto take the Supporting Actor Oscar. Last year’s recipient Charles Melton (May December) didn’t make the Academy’s cut. Both Domingo and Maclin are expected to receive Oscar nominations.

Speaking of His Three Daughters, it won Screenplay. Yet you can’t read much into that because none of the other nominees (Between the Temples, Evil Does Not Exist, Femme, Janet Planet) are expected to contend at the Academy Awards.

The precursors for Oscars are begin to roll out and keep an eye on this blog for all the coverage!

Oscar Predictions: Nosferatu

Acclaimed filmmaker Robert Eggers brings his version of Nosferatu to multiplexes on Christmas Day with Bill Skarsgård embodying the iconic vampire. Based on the 1922 classic German film which was spawned from Bram Stoker’s Dracula, this is Eggers’ fourth feature after the critically praised The Witch, The Lighthouse, and The Northman. Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe populate his dark vision.

The review embargo lifted over three weeks before the opening and critics are (sorry…) mostly sinking their teeth into this. With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, the question isn’t whether Nosferatu gets Oscar nods. It’s how many. That’s because I’m confident tech nods are coming its way. Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Cinematography, and Production Design all seem achievable and I had it nabbing those four nods in my predictions from yesterday. Sound and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and Original Score could be on the menu.

As for above the line mentions, that is more questionable. Lily-Rose Depp is drawing raves for her lead work, but Best Actress is probably too crowded and I don’t currently have her in my top 10. Skarsgård, who terrified us as Pennywise in It, is being lauded for his supporting role. Yet we know the Academy doesn’t warm to performances in the horror genre.

I wouldn’t completely discount Picture or Eggers in director. Nosferatu‘s stock could rise exponentially if it grabs AFI or National Board of Review best of slots. For now, I feel more comfortable having the film and its maker on the outside looking in for recognition while below the lines noms should be materializing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…