Tag: academy awards

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 22nd Edition

My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.

In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.

You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)

12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)

9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Wicked

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sasquatch Sunset

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Forbidden Road” from Better Man

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Substance

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Nosferatu

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

The Substance

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Substance

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

8 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

7 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.

Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?

Best International Feature Film

Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves

There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper

Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.

Best Original Score

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.

Best Original Song

Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz

The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked

In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.

Best Sound

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).

Best Visual Effects

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked

I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.

Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).

Oscar Predictions – Mufasa: The Lion King

30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.

And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.

Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.

Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 14th Edition

A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.

While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.

For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.

Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).

While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.

While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Queer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilites:

6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A New Kind of Wilderness

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anora

Blitz

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible

Saturday Night

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilties:

6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Twisters

Conclave

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 8/10

A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 6/8

The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.

Best Ensemble

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 5/6

Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

How I Did: 5/6

A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/6

A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

How I Did: 4/6

Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Perez and not The Room Next Door.

Best Foreign Language Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 5/6

Flow and not Vermiglio.

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.

Best Comedy

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

How I Did: 5/6

I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/6

Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.

Best Costume Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in and not The Substance.

Best Hair and Makeup

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Song

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 5/6

“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.

Best Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 3/6

My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.

And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!

11 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist

7 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

5 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5

1 Nomination

Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.

At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Runner- Up: September 5

Best Director

Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

Best Ensemble

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Best Foreign Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Piece by Piece

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

Best Costume Design

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hair

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Song

“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

Best Visual Effects

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

Best Comedy

Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

Runner-Up: My Old Ass

Best Young Actor

Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)

Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)

That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

8 Nominations

Anora

7 Nominations

The Substance

6 Nominations

Challengers

4 Nominations

A Real Pain

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys

1 Nomination

Oscar Predictions – The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Tolkien goes anime when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim marches into multiplexes this weekend. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s blockbuster trilogy,
Kenjii Kamiyama helms the fantasy adventure with Brian Cox, Gaia Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing vocal support.

Word-of-mouth is rather middling with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 58 Metacritic. While the live-action LOTR flicks all received Best Picture noms (with capper The Return of the King winning), Rohirrim appears on the outside looking in. The Animated Feature five already seems set with The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Surprises are always possible, but it won’t be this getting into the race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Complete Unknown

James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is picking up the kind of precursor recognition that may lead to a Best Picture nomination. Whether it ultimately makes the cut is, well, a complete unknown. The Fox Searchlight release is out Christmas Day with Timothée Chalamet as the legendary singer and Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy providing support.

The review embargo is lifted with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and 70 on Metacritic. It is fair to say critical reaction is more mixed than plenty of other contenders. Yet praise for Chalamet’s work is consistent and he appears poised for his second Academy nod after being up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. This time he’ll be playing in lead and he’s a threat to win. As for the rest of the cast, Norton (as Pete Seeger) just landed a Golden Globe nod. His inclusion at the Oscars is possible, but not a slam dunk like the headliner. Fanning and Barbaro are both generating complimentary notices, but Supporting Actress may be too crowded.

Down the line nods like Costume Design, Production Design, and (especially) Sound are achievable though I wouldn’t be surprised to see none of those ultimately materialize. The biggest question mark is indeed Picture. I don’t see Director and Adapted Screenplay happening. Unknown has made the AFI and NBR top tens and got a Best Motion Picture (Drama) slot at the Globes where they honor six hopefuls.

Mangold’s Walk the Line from 2005 (his biopic about Johnny Cash) received a handful of nods. Reese Witherspoon took home the Actress statue as June Carter Cash while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for Actor. It contended in Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound. I see a range of possibilities for Complete. One is Chalamet being nominated (a given) and that’s it. Under that scenario, a win could be trickier. He could also be in the mix with perhaps just Sound or another tech race or two. A best case scenario would be Unknown grabbing the ninth or tenth BP spot along with a combo of the aforementioned. It that happens, it’ll be an honor for it to be nominated in the biggest race while Chalamet goes for the victory. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

82nd Golden Globes Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for perhaps the most recognizable Oscar precursor show were unveiled this morning. We now know the pictures and personnel contending for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, airing January 5th with Nikki Glaser hosting.

There are always surprises to be found with unexpected additions and subtractions in the cinematic races and that held true. I went 74 for 92 in my predictions. Of the 15 feature film categories, I went 6/6 in five of them.

As I projected, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez led the way with 10 nominations followed by The Brutalist‘s seven and Conclave‘s 6. Let’s break down each competition with how I did and some commentary on where I see the races currently.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in over Sing Sing. Perhaps the biggest shocker of the day is Sing Sing only generating one nomination for its lead Colman Domingo in Actor (Drama). Nickel Boys and September 5‘s noms mark their sole mentions. The Brutalist is probably out front but I wouldn’t sleep on Conclave.

Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Pérez could emerge here considering the haul this morning though Anora and Wicked (to a slightly lesser degree) are possibilities.

Best Director

Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Berger (thought he was my runner-up) or Kapadia. Instead, I predicted Jon M. Chu (Wicked) and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. The latter is a surprising omission three years after he missed the cut at Oscar. Corbet is the favorite in my estimation even if it doesn’t take Motion Picture (Drama).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)

How I Did: 4/6

Anderson (my runner-up) and Torres are in contention over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Jean-Baptiste is racking up critics awards and her omission is a bit unexpected. If Ronan can’t make it here, her Oscar odds are in serious trouble. This could come down to Jolie vs. Kidman. Fun fact: none of the pictures represented here are up for Best Drama (the only acting category where that is the case).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 6/6

No surprises here as Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are vying for the statue.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)

How I Did: 5/6

Runner-up Adams is in over June Squibb (Thelma). Madison has the edge though I wouldn’t discount Erivo, Gascón, or Moore for the upset.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

How I Did: 4/6

LaBelle and Plemons in with Michael Keaton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) and Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool & Wolverine) out. I don’t really think there’s a frontrunner though Eisenberg and Powell are maybe in the lead with Grant as a legit threat.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 6/6

Frankly I’m a little shocked I went 6 for 6 as there’s lots of contenders in this derby. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) is a snub many are pointing out. As for the winner, this is Grande vs. Saldaña.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Culkin is getting lots of critics prize love while Pearce and Washington are threats. I didn’t have Norton or Strong and instead went with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). I still think both of those performers could get into the Oscar dance.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/6

Had Sing Sing instead of A Real Pain as Anora looks to nab this one.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

This went as planned and The Wild Robot looks to capture this prize with Flow (a critics darling) looking to disrupt that plan.

Best Foreign Language Motion Picture

Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

How I Did: 5/6

Logic says Perez, but Kapadia’s directing nod opens for the door for Light.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/8

Went with Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two and not Romulus and The Wild Robot. Dune missing is head scratching. This would be a good place to honor Wicked though Deadpool is the year’s largest grosser.

Best Score

Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

This looks kinda wide open to me at the moment, but The Brutalist might be the slight favorite.

Best Song

Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 3/6

The blasted Song category represents my worst performance as “Beautiful” and “Compress” and “Forbidden” make the playlist over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, and “Piece by Piece” from the same titled feature. Betting odds favor Pérez and I’d go with “El Mal” though “Sky” is a possibility.

I’ll have winner predictions shortly before the January 5th ceremony and here’s a breakdown of all the features nominated.

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Challengers, A Real Pain, Wicked, The Wild Robot

3 Nominatons

A Complete Unknown

2 Nominations

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, The Last Showgirl

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Heretic, Hit Man, Kinds of Kindness, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, Sing Sing, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Oscar Predictions: The Six Triple Eight

Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.

This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.

Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…