In the near decade that Ben Affleck has become a director, he’s had quite an impressive showing at both the box office and in the awards derby. His debut feature, 2007’s Gone Baby Gone (based on a Dennis Lehane novel),nabbed Amy Ryan a nod for Supporting Actress. His follow-up, 2010’s The Town, earned Jeremy Renner a Supporting Actor nomination. His third feature, 2012’s Argo, really hit the Oscar jackpot. It garnered seven nominations and won three – Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing. Argo also had the curious and rare distinction of winning the biggest prize without Mr. Affleck receiving a nomination for his direction (the first time that had happened since 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy).
On Christmas Day, Affleck’s fourth feature Live by Night opens in limited release for Oscar consideration prior to its wide release in January. It also finds its source material from a book by Dennis Lehane. Based on Affleck’s track record, it stood to reason that the pic could be a potential Academy contender. Yet reviews out today strongly suggest otherwise. Night stands at only 33% at press time on Rotten Tomatoes and none of the precursors (SAG Awards, Golden Globes) have bestowed it with any recognition.
The Prohibition era gangster drama looks like a non-factor in any of the larger races, including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, or any acting slots for Affleck and his costars which include Sienna Miller, Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Zoe Saldana, and Chris Cooper. Night could be a factor in some down the line races including Production Design and Costume Design, though even those could be a long shot.
A week ago, the prospect of this Wednesday’s Passengers receiving some Oscar attention didn’t seem totally far fetched. After all, the Academy has shown some love to the science fiction space pic genre three years ago with Gravity and last year with The Martian as they both received Best Picture nods. In addition, their respective leads Sandra Bullock and Matt Damon were nominated in the lead acting races.
Passengers is director Morten Tyldum’s follow-up to TheImitationGame, which was in the Picture race two years ago and for which he received a directing nod. And this space opera boasts Jennifer Lawrence, who’s been nominated four times since 2010 and won in 2012 for SilverLiningsPlaybook. So, again, not so far fetched.
And then reviews happened late this week for the sci fi romantic thriller which costars Chris Pratt. The verdict? A rather troubling 32% on Rotten Tomatoes and its Oscar chances evaporating. Passengers still has a remote shot at Visual Effects, but in all likelihood the pic will be sitting on the awards sideline.
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
OK – stop rolling your eyes. When Collateral Beauty (out Friday) had its trailers unveiled months ago, it was not out of the question that the film could receive some awards chatter. After all, the cast is made up of multiple Oscar winners and nominees – Will Smith, Edward Norton, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, and Keira Knightley. Maybe its director David Frankel (who’s had some hits with The Devil Wears Prada and Marley & Me) would enter a new phase of his career that included Academy attention.
So it wasn’t unreasonable to include the Picture, the Lead Actor with Mr. Smith, and supporting players like Norton and Mirren in the realm of possibility for nominations. Yet there was also a general feeling from the trailers that perhaps it was trying a bit too hard. Reviews out today seem to confirm that notion. Bottom line? Collateral Beauty won’t get any Oscar nods.
Interestingly, a number of critical write-ups have called it the Hollywood version of Manchester by the Sea, which also deals with the heavy issue of losing a child. Those reviews haven’t exactly meant it as a compliment. While Manchester is poised for many nominations (including Picture), Beauty‘s best hope now is to connect with audiences. At least its costar Naomie Harris looks certain to be recognized, but it’ll be for Moonlight and not this.
The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.
Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.
Let’s get to it!
BESTPICTURE (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
Fences
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Jackie
Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or HacksawRidge to get in.
BESTPICTURE (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
FlorenceFosterJenkins
LaLaLand
TheLobster
RulesDon’tApply
20thCenturyWomen
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
Potential Surprise: CaptainFantastic managing to get recognized.
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences
Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.
BESTACTOR (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, HacksawRidge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.
Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for TheFounder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.
BESTACTOR (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply
Colin Farrell, TheLobster
Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand
Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic
Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson
Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.
BESTACTRESS (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, MissSloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial
Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.
BESTACTRESS (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen
Susan Sarandon, TheMeddler
Emma Stone, LaLaLand
Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Alternate: Sally Field, MyNameisDoris
Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded TheEdge of Seventeen.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea
Issey Ogata, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals
Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or BleedforThis.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea
Alternate: Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky
Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in OtherPeople making the cut.
BESTSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
LaLaLand
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Fences
Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…
Reviews are out today for HiddenFigures and its Oscar chances are becoming (somewhat) more clear. From Theodore Melfi, who last directed Bill Murray to acclaim in St. Vincent, the pic focuses on three African American women (Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae) who were instrumental in the space flights of the 1960s. Other costars include Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, and Jim Parsons.
The most common two words that writers are using for Figures must be music to 20th Century Fox’s ears: crowd pleaser. Early tallies put it at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, though some of the reviews aren’t exactly raves. Still, with audiences possibly responding positively to it, it stands a real shot at a Best Picture nod. It could fit a similar slot to both 2009’s TheBlindSide and 2011’s TheHelp. Melfi seems unlikely to make the cut in the Director race.
Acting categories could provide possibilities in both Supporting races. Henson will be campaigned for in Lead Actress and as has been discussed at length on this blog, that’s an extremely crowded category and she looks unlikely to get in. As for Supporting Actress, word is that Monae stands a better shot than Spencer for recognition. In Supporting Actor, Costner is getting good ink and could factor into a very uncertain race at press time. Figures also could receive an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
This Thursday, I’ll have my predictions updated and it will provide greater guidance on how Hidden figures into it all.
Official reviews are at last out today for Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Focused on Jesuit priests being persecuted in Japan in the 17th century, the film has long been a passion project for the heralded director. It’s also long been thought of as a potential major Oscar contender and the buzz certainly confirms that notion. Early reviews are strong enough that Silence looks highly likely to be nominated for both Picture and Director.
In the 21st century, five of the six pictures that Scorsese directed scored Picture nods. The only one that didn’t was 2010’s ShutterIsland and that wasn’t really made for awards attention. Only TheDeparted won the big race along with Scorsese getting his only win ever in Director. Marty’s big competition is in the form of LaLaLand and its director Damien Chazelle, which still appears to be hold front runner status. In the Directing category, the work of Barry Jenkins in Moonlight is also garnering talk.
Screenwriter Jay Cocks looks assured for an Adapted Screenplay nomination. Silence could also score a number of down the line nods in Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, and Production Design.
The acting possibilities for recognition is a bit more complicated. Andrew Garfield is competing against himself in Actor and there’s a very good chance he’d be nominated instead for HacksawRidge (or not at all). Then there’s Supporting Actor with Liam Neeson, Adam Driver, and Issey Ogata in the mix. For months, it was presumed that Neeson would stand the best chance, but the Los Angeles Film Critics named Ogata their runner-up for his supporting work. Driver has gotten some ink for reportedly losing 50 pounds for his role here and the Academy loves stuff like that. Add that up and it’s more uncertainty in an already quite uncertain Supporting Actor derby.
Happy Friday y’all! Readers of my blog are aware that every Thursday for a few weeks now, I’ve been giving you my projections in the eight biggest races for the Academy Awards. Those categories are Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. You can peruse yesterday’s post here if you didn’t catch it:
What about the other categories, though? Well fear not because today is the first day I’m giving you my take on them as well. I’m leaving out (and will continue to leave out) Documentary Short Subject and the short film races in animated and live-action. Why? I don’t know anything about them and it’d be simple guesswork to predict them.
That said, we’ve got a bunch of other races to cover. As I’ve done with the others, I’ll give my 5 predicted nominees and list five other strong possibilities. Let’s get to it!
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. Finding Dory
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince
7. April and the Extraordinary World
8. My Life as a Zucchini
9. Sausage Party
10. Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th
2. O.J.: Made in America
3. Gleason
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro
Other Possibilities
6. The Eagle Huntress
7. Cameraperson
8. Fire at Sea
9. Miss Sharon Jones
10. The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann
2. Fire at Sea
3. Land of Mine
4. Elle
5. A Man Called Ove
Other Possibilities
6. The Salesman
7. Ma’Rosa
8. The Ardennes
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
10. Neruda
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night
7. Lion
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Jackie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Love and Friendship
4. Live by Night
5. Silence
Other Possibilities
6. Allied
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Florence Foster Jenkins
9. Fences
10. Hidden Figures
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Jackie
8. Hell or High Water
9. Live by Night
10. Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (only three nominees)
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Other Possibilities
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. The BFG
6. Hidden Figures
7. Star Trek Beyond
8. Suicide Squad
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Silence
Best Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Jackie
5. Moana
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land
4. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
5. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls
7. “A Letter to the Free” from 13th
8. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
9. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply
10. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Jackie
4. Live by Night
5. Arrival
Other Possibilities
6. Love and Friendship
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
10. Allied
Best Sound Editing
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. The Jungle Book
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Patriots Day
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Silence
8. Deepwater Horizon
9. Sully
10. Passengers
Best Sound Mixing
1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Patriots Day
4. Sully
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Arrival
9. Passengers
10. Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. A Monster Calls
5. Passengers
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. The BFG
8. Star Trek Beyond
9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
10. Captain America: Civil War
**And that leaves the following breakdown for all movies in all categories getting the following number of nominations (this will be updated every week):
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Silence
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Arrival, Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
5 Nominations
Jackie
4 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, The Jungle Book, Loving, Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Live by Night, Patriots Day, Sully, 20th Century Women
1 Nomination
13th, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Finding Dory, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hell or High Water, I Am Not Your Negro, Kubo and the Two Strings, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Love & Friendship, A Man Called Ove, A Monster Calls, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, Passengers, Po, The Red Turtle, Toni Erdmann, Zootopia
Next Thursday – I’ll have my predictions updated in all categories! Until then…
Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!
It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.
Let us count them…
1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.
2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.
3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.
There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:
Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.
Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.
Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.
Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.
Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.
4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.
Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Fences (PR: 2)
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 8)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
11. Jackie (PR: 9)
12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)
13. Sully (PR: 15)
14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Live by Night (PR: 14)
18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
20. The Founder (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)
8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Moonlight (PR: 1)
3. La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. The Lobster (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
8. Sully (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 9)
10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Whew! And there you have it…
Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…
Happy Turkey Day all! And yes we all know it’s Thursday and that also means my weekly Oscar predictions are here for you to stuff yourself with. Over the last week, we have seen new developments as Allied opened, reviews came out, and its awards chances went buh bye.
Furthermore, both PatriotsDay and TheFounder (both out next month) had critical reaction come in. Patriots has established itself as a dark horse candidate for recognition with Founder popping up in the bottom of possibilities based on their reviews.
Added to that… Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally got a trailer release about a month before its premiere.
So there’s a bit of movement happening on the charts and here’s my Thanksgiving projections for the eight major categories:
BESTPICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. LaLaLand (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 9)
8. Arrival (PR: 7)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
11. HellorHighWater (PR: 11)
12. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 12)
13. PatriotsDay (PR: Not Ranked)
14. LivebyNight (PR: 13)
15. Sully (PR: 14)
16. HacksawRidge (PR: 15)
17. NocturnalAnimals (PR: 17)
18. TheJungleBook (PR: 16)
19. TheFounder (Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Allied
FlorenceFosterJenkins
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
BESTACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Keaton, TheFounder (PR: 7)
7. Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic (PR: 9)
8. Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
BESTACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, LaLaLand (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Jessica Chastain, MissSloane (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
7. Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
10. Taraji P. Henson, HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals (PR: 1)
4. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, HellorHighWater (PR: 10)
7. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: 9)
10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, HiddenFigures (PR: 8)
7. Octavia Spencer, HiddenFigures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, OtherPeople (PR: 6)
9. Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky (PR: 9)
10. Felicity Jones, AMonsterCalls (PR: 10)
BESTORIGINALSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 3)
3. LaLaLand (PR: 2)
4. HellorHighWater (PR: 5)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Loving (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 4)
8. TheLobster (PR: 8)
9. CaptainFantastic (PR: 9)
10. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, DanielBlake
BESTADAPTEDSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Arrival (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. HiddenFigures (PR: 6)
7. LivebyNight (PR: 7)
8. HacksawRidge (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 7)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
And that does it for your Thanksgiving edition of my Oscar predictions… Enjoy those leftovers!
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