The historical action drama OutlawKing might not immediately strike one as an Oscar hopeful. Yet it’s considered a bit of a thematic sequel to Braveheart, the Mel Gibson epic that also focused on the Scottish battle for independence. That film won Best Picture in 1995. This is also director David Mackenzie’s follow-up to HellorHighWater, which earned a Best Picture nod two years ago. And it was selected to open the Toronto Film Festival, which has kicked off today.
Even with that considerable pedigree, critical reaction suggests this won’t be a major player on the Oscar scene. Mackenzie reunites with Hell star Chris Pine with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Florence Pugh, and Stephen Dillane. Early reviews haven’t been too kind thus far, though they have praised its epic scope. Perhaps some down the line tech recognition is possible, but even that could be a reach.
Bottom line: don’t expect Academy voters to crown King with love.
The pic is slated to debut on Netflix on November 9. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.
And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.
Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Roma (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
6. The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Backseat (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Black Panther (PR: 12)
12. Peterloo (PR: 9)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)
16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)
17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)
18. Green Book (PR: 21)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)
22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)
24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Old Man & The Gun
Destroyer
Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)
12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)
11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Rory Kinnear, Peterloo
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)
4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)
13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)
15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, Destroyer
Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)
4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)
10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Disobedience (PR: 13)
12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
13. Widows (PR: 12)
14. Wildlife (PR: 14)
15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)
In addition to the Bourne franchise, director Paul Greengrass is best known for making thrillers based on well-known events. This includes Bloody Sunday, United 93 (for which he received a Best Director nomination), and Captain Phillips (which nabbed a Best Picture nod). His latest is July 22 and it focuses on the 2011 Norwegian terrorist attacks.
The film has debuted at the Venice Film Festival and reviews out today are solid. However, I’m not sure the critical reaction is strong enough for Greengrass or his picture to receive Academy acknowledgment. I’m also not seeing any technical nominations at this juncture. It also may not help that the production is scheduled to debut on Netflix and the voters still may not be overly enthusiastic about recognizing the subscription service.
Bottom line: Barring a greater amount of festival love, don’t expect this to achieve the level of attention that previous Greengrass movies United 93 and Captain Phillips got.
July 22 is out on Netflix on October 10. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Three years ago, director Brady Corbet took home the Best Director prize and Best Debut film at Venice for The Childhood of a Leader. In 2018, he’s back at the festival with his follow-up Vox Lux. Said to be a haunting tale of a pop music princess (Natalie Portman), early word of mouth is quite encouraging for Corbet’s second effort behind the camera. Some reviewers have commented that it’s a darker take on the same themes of another festival favorite, Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born.
Portman’s work is said to be fantastic. Her costars include Jude Law, Raffey Cassidy, and Willem Dafoe (on narrator duties), but expect any awards chatter to go to its lead. Portman has been nominated three times already for 2004’s Closer, 2010’s Black Swan (for which she won), and 2016’s Jackie. It may not hurt that Oscar voters are aware of her performance in Annihilation earlier this year, which also earned positive notices.
One important point worth noting: Vox Lux has yet to secure U.S. distribution, so it’s possible this may not hit theaters stateside in 2018. However, based on reaction from Italy, I expect that to occur in short order.
Bottom line: International pop star Lady Gaga has likely made the short list in Best Actress for A Star Is Born. Natalie Portman could potentially join that short list playing an international pop star.
In 2016, Hungarian director Laszlo Nemes took awards season by storm with his film Son of Saul. The Holocaust drama won Best Foreign Language Film at both the Oscars and the Golden Globes. Therefore, it was no surprise that his follow-up Sunset (set in pre World War I Budapest) was one of the more eagerly titles screening at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend.
Critical reaction is out and it’s decidedly more mixed than the director’s previous effort. Both Roma and Cold War also debuted at Venice and each stand far better chances at recognition than this.
Bottom line: early buzz suggests Sunset will not match the acclaim that allowed Saul to triumph. Its inclusion in the Foreign Language Film race is very much a question mark.
Four years ago, Polish filmmaker Pawel Pawlikowski saw his feature Ida take the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. This year at the Cannes Film Festival, his new drama ColdWar earned him the Best Director prize there. Now that it’s also played at Venice, the film continues to gather steam for the 2018 Academy Awards.
Most reviews have been raves and it’s highly likely that Poland will submit this as its selection for Oscar attention. Its inclusion in Foreign Language Film appears to be a given. The big question is whether it could possibly cross over and compete in Best Picture.
At best, there’s usually only one foreign feature that makes the leap into the largest race of all. In 2018, that slot appears to already be filled by Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma. However, if a number of American features fail to meet expectations, you never know.
Additionally, the lead actress in War is Joanna Kulig and critics have hailed her work. A nomination for her could be a long shot. Once again, Roma could have a greater chance at recognition with the work of newcomer Yalitza Aparicio.
Bottom line: ColdWar is in fine position with Foreign Language Film, while anything else is a far more unclear question mark.
Willem Dafoe has received three Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor in his long and distinguished career: 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s ShadowoftheVampire, and just last year for TheFloridaProject. He has never gotten recognition in lead Actor, but that is likely to change with AtEternity’sGate. Featuring Dafoe as Vincent Van Gogh in his final days, the Julian Schnabel directed pic has debuted at the Venice Film Festival. Early buzz suggests its star stands an excellent chance at a nomination.
Most of the critical reaction is encouraging, but the picture itself is certainly a question mark in all other categories. Schnabel has certainly received Academy love before. 2000’s BeforeNightFalls saw Javier Bardem get a Best Actor nod. 2007’s TheDivingBellandtheButterfly garnered four nominations, including Best Director. Original Screenplay and Cinematography could be two additional categories where this is considered.
As far as Dafoe’s costars, Oscar Isaac is a possibility as fellow painter Paul Gauguin. Yet it’s also entirely feasible that CBS Films will focus the bulk of its campaign on Dafoe. They may not have to try too hard.
Bottom line: any other races are uncertain, but Dafoe looks poised for his first walk down the red carpet as a Best Actor nominee.
AtEternity’sGate is out domestically on November 16. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Ahead of its stateside bow in just two weeks, WhiteBoyRick has premiered at the Telluride Film Festival. The 1980s set crime pic tells the true story of Richard Wershe Jr. (played by newcomer Richie Merritt), who became a drug kingpin and FBI informant at age 14 in Detroit. Matthew McConaughey plays his father with French director Yann Demange (maker of the acclaimed 2014 indie ‘71) behind the camera.
WhiteBoyRick was never exactly looked at as a major Oscar contender, but it was a curiosity as to whether its two main actors could receive attention. McConaughey is just five years removed from a gold statue for DallasBuyersClub. While some early reviews have commended him and Merritt, there’s been an overall mixed to negative vibe from critics.
Bottom line: This should be a total non-factor when it comes to Academy Awards chatter.
The film opens September 14. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Two notable Westerns have had their debuts an ocean away at Venice and Oscar attention could be questionable for both. The first is TheBalladofBusterScruggs, the latest effort from the Coen Brothers. Today brings us TheSistersBrothers, The first English language project from acclaimed French filmmaker Jacques Audiard (whose titles include AProphet and RustandBone).
Said to be a violent romp with comedic touches, the cast includes John C. Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Riz Ahmed. The performance getting the most attention is Reilly’s. Could the Academy honor the venerable actor 16 years after his sole nod in Supporting Actor for Chicago? Like any other nominations in the major categories, it’s likely a long shot. Even though Venice reviews have been pretty sturdy, I just don’t envision this as a player for Oscar voters.
Two exceptions could be Cinematography and the Original Score from Alexandre Desplat, an Academy favorite who’s won twice already for TheGrandBudapestHotel and TheShapeofWater.
Bottom line: despite solid buzz, don’t expect that to translate to significant awards chatter for TheSistersBrothers.
The film opens stateside on September 21. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Going into the Telluride Film Festival, one storyline was the possibility of Nicole Kidman garnering Oscar buzz for two roles. In the Supporting realm, her part in BoyErased seemed like a somewhat safe bet for attention. That film’s mixed reaction has brought her inclusion in that race as more of a question mark.
When it comes to lead Actress, Kidman stars in the crime thriller Destroyer from director Karyn Kusama. Reaction from Colorado on the picture itself is also mixed. Some reviews have compared it to the work of Michael Mann while others have criticized its confusing storyline. Yet everyone seems to agree that Kidman is terrific in an unglamorous role.
Expect Annapurna Pictures to focus all of its Academy campaign on the four-time nominee and one time winner (for 2002’s TheHours). Don’t expect much chatter for the Picture, Director, or costars Sebastian Stan, Tatiana Maslany, Toby Kebbell, and Bradley Whitford.
Bottom line: the BoyErased reaction lessens Kidman’s chances at a nod in Supporting Actress. The buzz about her performance in Destroyer bolsters her shot at lead.
The film opens domestically on Christmas. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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