Tag: academy awards

Oscar Predictions: Dead Man’s Wire

Dead Man’s Wire from Gus Van Sant is being compared to the crime movies of the mid to late 70s era it takes place in after it premiered at Venice with additional play in Toronto. Bill Skarsgård headlines as a real life kidnapper in a role that’s drawing impressive reviews. The supporting cast includes Dacre Montgomery, Colman Domingo, Myha’la, Cary Elwes, John Robinson and Al Pacino.

There has been more than one comparison to 1975’s Dog Day Afternoon (starring Pacino). Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 73 on Metacritic. Distribution rights are unsettled so there’s no guarantee this is out in 2025. While there’s across the board thumbs in the right direction, I’m not sure it is enough for this to break out in awards chatter. There’s the sneaky possibility of Skarsgård gaining momentum, but I’m not convinced. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Spinal Tap II: The End Continues

Considered a comedy classic and credited for popularizing the mockumentary genre, This Is Spinal Tap was released 41 years ago. Today the sequel is out for consumption in Spinal Tap II: The End Continues. It reunites director Rob Reiner with Christopher Guest, Michael McKean and Harry Shearer as the clueless but endearing English rockers.

The original Tap took a little while to achieve its beloved status. None of their original songs were nominated in that category at the Oscars so we missed the opportunity to see them perform “Big Bottom” or “Stonehenge”. At the Golden Globes, it didn’t materialize in Best Picture – Musical/Comedy. I’d say it had more staying power in retrospect than Micki + Maude.

Reviews for the sequel are primarily average with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes and 60 on Metacritic. There are nine new tracks on the soundtrack. Perhaps “Let’s Just Rock Again” or another ditty will be campaigned for by the studio. If it makes the shortlist of contenders, maybe a wave of nostalgia gets it in, but I doubt it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hedda

Based on the late 19th century play, Nia DaCosta (Candyman, The Marvels) brings Hedda to the silver screen on October 22nd before its Amazon Prime debut a week later. The sultry drama stars Tessa Thompson in the title role with Imogen Poots, Tom Bateman, Nicholas Pinnock, Kathryn Hunter and Nina Hoss in the supporting cast.

Its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival yielded raves for Thompson and Hoss in particular. Reviews of the pic itself were more measured. Rotten Tomatoes is at 85% with 62 on Metacritic. The awards path for Hedda might follow a similar road to Passing (2021). That Netflix drama had stronger critical buzz and there was Oscar chatter for Thompson in Actress and Ruth Negga in supporting. Expect the same for Thompson and Hoss, but I suspect they might not end up making the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nuremberg

Prior to its November 7th stateside debut, Nuremberg has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. The historical drama is James Vanderbilt’s second directorial feature behind 2015’s so-so received Truth (he’s best known for his screenwriting including Zodiac, the two Amazing Spider-Man pics, the latest Scream entries and Abigail). Best Actor winners Russell Crowe (as Nazi war criminal Hermann Göring) and Rami Malek headline. Leo Woodall, John Slattery, Mark O’Brien, Colin Hanks, Richard E. Grant and Michael Shannon costar.

Reaction is in the mixed variety with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. Despite decent ink for the cast, this is unlikely to generate any significant awards chatter for the Sony Pictures Classics release. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Good Fortune

Angelic comedy Good Fortune will hope for just that when it opens on October 17th. Marking the directorial debut of comedian Aziz Ansari, it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly satisfied reaction. The body swap tale stars Seth Rogen and Ansari with Keanu Reeves as a “budget guardian angel”. The supporting cast includes Keke Palmer and Sandra Oh.

Rotten Tomatoes is at 81% with 66 on Metacritic. Plenty of critics particularly dig the Reeves casting. While the Academy won’t consider this, could Fortune make a play in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes? I don’t think the reviews are quite there for it to have a legit shot unless divine intervention is involved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Steve

As a teacher at a school for troubled youth, Cillian Murphy is the title character in Steve. It reunites the Oppenheimer Best Actor winner with the director of his previous effort – last year’s Small Things like These. The supporting ensemble includes Tracey Ullman, Jay Lycurgo, Simbi Ajikawo and Emily Watson. After a premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, it’s out in limited release September 19th before an October 3rd Netflix bow.

The streamer’s involvement should ensure plenty of views. With 70 on Metacritic and 65% on Rotten Tomatoes, the reviews probably aren’t strong enough to warrant a major awards push from Netflix. That’s despite some critics particularly championing Murphy and Lycurgo. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Rental Family

Three years after winning Best Actor for his performance in The Whale (capping a remarkable career comeback), Brendan Fraser could find himself in contention again courtesy of Rental Family. Directed by Hikari (best known for making episodes of the acclaimed Netflix series Beef), the Japan set dramedy has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 21st domestic bow. The supporting cast includes Takehiro Hira, Mari Yamamoto, Shannon Mahina Gorman and Akira Emoto.

Canadian reaction indicates this a crowdpleaser with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. This might be a trendy pick for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF which often correlates to a BP nod at the Academy Awards. Family could certainly snag one of the ten spots though I don’t see Hikari as a threat in director. His original screenplay with Stephen Blahut is more of a possibility.

In an Actor race that is starting to look crowded, Fraser will certainly be in the mix. In recent weeks, I have predicted Yamamoto in Supporting Actress and Emoto in Supporting Actor. Word-of-mouth suggests their inclusion (while not out of the question) could face tougher odds than Fraser (who I’ve yet to place in the Actor quintet). Let’s see if that changes in my next update that is coming soon. If his costars miss the cut, the new Casting race could be a place where this snags another mention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: In the Hand of Dante

Julian Schnabel has Oscar history with Before Night Falls from 2000 (in which Javier Bardem was up for lead Actor), 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (four noms including Director), and At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe contending for Actor). His latest is the period piece drama In the Hand of Dante, sporting an eclectic cast headlined by Oscar Isaac and including Gal Gadot, Gerard Butler, John Malkovich, Jason Momoa, Louis Cancelmi, Sophia Impacciatore, Franco Nero, and Al Pacino.

Stateside release is undetermined at press time. Despite the star power, distributors might not be lining up since this was generally considered one of the misfires at the Venice Film Festival. While some critics tipped their cap to its ambition, most say it wasn’t brimming with overall quality. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 35% and that should ensure Dante doesn’t fire up awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Roofman

Before it drops in theaters on October 10th, Roofman has played the Toronto Film Festival. While reactions aren’t through the first portion of its title, they’re overwhelmingly positive. Based on the true story of a military man turned thief, Channing Tatum headlines the dramedy with Kirsten Dunst as his love interest. Costars include Ben Mendelsohn, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Abuda, Juno Temple, Emory Cohen, Melonie Diaz, and LaKeith Stanfield.

While this seems like an unconventional choice for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines director Derek Cianfrance, critics are mostly thumbing it up. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with 74 on Metacritic. Some reviews are saying this is a career best performance from Tatum and complimenting the chemistry with Dunst. They could both be long shots for Academy attention. If Paramount slots this in Musical/Comedy instead of Drama (sounds like both are feasible) and campaigns Dunst in Best Actress as opposed to supporting at the Golden Globes, the odds could be improved for that ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.

2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.

The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…