None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.
The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.
Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.
Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.
That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.
Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.
While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.
In previous posts covering2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.
That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.
Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.
For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.
The body horror genre had its awards breakout last year via Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. After its January unveiling at Sundance, could Together generate attention from voters? Starring real-life married couple Alison Brie and Dave Franco, it marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts).
The exploration of codependence made a splash in Park City months ago. Hitting theaters on July 30th, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a perfect 100% (with almost 50 reviews in) with 76 on Metacritic. I probably would’ve discounted its prospects before The Substance nabbed five nods. Together is likely still a long shot for Academy attention. If it can contend anywhere, look to Original Screenplay. However, that race is already packed with potential players. Perhaps more importantly, distributor Neon will have its hands full with Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.
While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.
I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.
The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)
17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)
21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)
24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sound of Falling
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)
Best Actress
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)
11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)
14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)
Out this weekend after a Tribeca Film Festival premiere days ago, Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie, Tetris) helms the family dramedy Everything’s Going to Be Great. Focused on a clan of regional theater players, Allison Janney and Bryan Cranston are the parents in this coming-of-age tale costarring Benjamin Evan Ainsworth, Jack Champion, Simon Rex, and Chris Cooper.
According to several critics, everything in Everything‘s is not great. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 49. Despite the presence of Academy recipients like Janney and Cooper and a nominee in Cranston, this will not be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
28 Days Later from Danny Boyle reinvigorated its genre 22 years ago with 2007 sequel 28 Weeks Later also generating solid reviews. Now Boyle is back in the director’s seat this Friday with 28 Years Later and word-of-mouth is encouraging once again. It’s not often you see soulful and rich used to describe this type of feature and that’s the case here. The post-apocalyptic threequel stars Jodie Comer, Aaron-Taylor Johnson, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams, and Ralph Fiennes.
Some critics are praising this as a zombie flick classic with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. That is currently the best RT score of the trilogy. Boyle, an Oscar winner for 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, reunites with screenwriter Alex Garland (now a successful filmmaker who penned Academy nominated Ex Machina).
Since both gentlemen have been in the awards mix since their 28 Days collaboration over two decades ago, could Academy voters take a look at this? I doubt they will for Best Picture or other top of the line races. It’s not an impossibility, but one hindrance could be Ryan Coogler’s vampiric Sinners from earlier this year. That horror title seems destined for BP and directorial nods.
I do wonder if 28 Years could make a play in Makeup & Hairstyling. That might be its best shot for the franchise entering the Academy’s consciousness. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Elio attempts to become the 20th Pixar offering to nab a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Academy Awards. Out this Friday, the sci-fi adventure is co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, and Adrian Molina. The voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Reviews are generally of the thumbs up variety, but not as laudatory as some other titles from Disney’s subsidiary. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 82% with Metacritic at 62. For comparisons sake, Pixar’s Elemental from two years ago was in that range with a 58 on Meta and 73% RT.
That was enough for Elemental to get one of the five Animated Feature slots. It should also be enough for Elio. However, I’m far less confident it will be the 11th winner of the prize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
F1 (also styled as F1: The Movie) blasts into IMAX screens and other venues on June 27th, marking Joseph Kosinski’s theatrical follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick. The exploration of the Formula One World Championship is headlined by Brad Pitt with costars including Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem.
Critics are mostly championing this an effective summer blockbuster with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. There are some gripes about the screenplay and even quibbles with how the racing sequences are choreographed.
While Maverick was nominated in six categories at the 95th Academy Awards including Best Picture, F1‘s possibilities are more limited. Sound seems the most feasible with Cinematography, Editing, and Hans Zimmer’s Score having shots. BP is likely out of reach and same goes for the cast despite praise for Pitt and the relatively unknown (though not for long) Idris. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Harry Melling and Alexander Skarsgård enter into an unconventional relationship in the British drama Pillion. From writer/director Harry Lighton in his feature debut, costars include Douglas Hodge, Lesley Sharp, Jack Shears, and Anthony Welsh.
After screening at Cannes last month, A24 picked up stateside distribution rights. At the French fest, the film won the Best Screenplay prize. Melling and Skarsgård are both being praised. It will be interesting to see if they’re both campaigned for in lead Actor.
A24 might be preoccupied with other titles including Marty Supreme and The Smashing Machine. I wouldn’t completely discount an Original Screenplay nod, but its distributor would need to make it a priority and that remains to be seen. Pillion should perform stronger at BAFTA where Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, and writing and acting noms could occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Deep Cover is available to stream on Amazon Prime Video today with Tom Kingsley directing and Jurassic World maker Colin Trevorrow among four credited with the script. The co-screenwriter’s dino lead Bryce Dallas Howard stars alongside Orlando Bloom, Nick Mohammed, Paddy Considine, Ian McShane, and Sean Bean.
This is not a remake of the 1992 Laurence Fishburne/Jeff Goldblum crime thriller that featured a banger of a title song from Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg. Instead this British high concept action comedy is receiving decent marks with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a more down-to-earth 68 Metacritic. It won’t get near the Academy’s radar. I do wonder if it could get a push for BAFTA’s Best British Film. That might be a long shot, but not an impossibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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