Six years ago, Rosamund Pike burst onto the Oscar scene with her revenge minded femme fatale in David Fincher’s Gone Girl. Since then, it’s been quiet on the nomination front. There have been a smattering of pics designed to possibly get her back in the mix – A United Kingdom, A Private War, Radioactive. None have been able to do so.
Pike’s latest showcase is J Blakeson’s thriller I Care a Lot, which screened over the weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. It casts her as a sketchy legal guardian who gets mixed up with criminals. Costars include Peter Dinklage, Eiza Gonzalez, Chris Messina, and Dianne Wiest.
The few reviews out have resulted in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, though some critics are more effusive than others. There is some talk that it’s Pike’s best performance since Gone Girl. Yet as I explained in my previous Oscar Watch post (regarding Naomi Watts in Penguin Bloom), Best Actress looks competitive in 2020. And like with Bloom, the distributor that picks Care up will need to mount a spirited campaign. It’s not impossible, but competition might be too steep for Pike to get noticed. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Naomi Watts is a two-time Oscar nominee in lead actress for 21 Grams in 2003 and 2012’s The Impossible. At the Toronto Film Festival this weekend, her latest drama Penguin Bloom premiered from director Glendyn Ivin. Costars include Andrew Lincoln and Jacki Weaver.
The pics casts Watts as a paralyzed woman caring for an injured magpie. It sounds like an awards bait type of role and some of the reviews are praising her work. However, some of the critical reaction is not so high as it sits at 58% on Rotten Tomatoes.
As discussed on this blog, Best Actress in 2020 potentially looks to be a crowded field. Whatever distributor picks Bloom up will have to mount a serious campaign for its star. My guess is that the so-so reaction from Toronto puts Watts at a competitive disadvantage to make it in. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Disney/Pixar isn’t the only entity with a sterling track record in the Best Animated Feature race at the Oscars. Irish outlet Cartoon Saloon has seen all three of their features nominated in the category. In all these instances, their product lost to a film with Disney and Pixar stamped on the credits.
Saloon’s fourth title is the environmentally conscious adventure Wolfwalkers, which screened at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. It is Saloon’s third collaboration with filmmaker Tomm Moore (who co-directs alongside Ross Stewart). His 2009 effort The Secret of Kelis scored a nod and lost to Up. Follow-up Song of the Sea fell short to Big Hero 6. The studio’s third feature – 2017’s The Breadwinner – made the final five with Coco emerging as the victor.
Early reviews from Toronto indicate that Wolfwalkers is another winner and it seems bound for nomination #4 for the Saloon. The pic is slated for stateside distribution later this year via Apple TV. Yet Pixar awaits with the impending release of Soul, which is currently seen as the favorite to take the gold.
Bottom line: Cartoon Saloon should make it 4 for 4 in Best Animated Feature. Beating the Mouse Factory looks to be its ongoing challenge. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Gothic thriller The Devil All the Time, based on the 2011 bestseller by Donald Ray Pollock, is in theater this weekend in limited fashion before a Netflix release this coming Wednesday. Directed by Antonio Campos, the pic boasts an impressive cast that includes Tom Holland, Bill Skarsgard, Riley Keough, Jason Clarke, Sebastian Stan, Haley Bennett, Mia Wasikowska, and Robert Pattinson (who’s everywhere at the moment with Tenet and The Batman trailer out).
Reviews out are of the mixed variety as Devil holds a 64% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critics have gone out of their way to praise the performances of Holland and Pattinson. The latter, in particular, seems likely to find an awards friendly role sooner than later with his impressive post Twilight output.
However, this is highly unlikely to be it. In addition to the several negative reviews, Netflix is simply too busy this season to make this film a priority. The streamer looks to have several legitimate contenders on their hands in the near future with Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Hillbilly Elegy – all of which have actors that they’ll campaign for. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
When Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan are romancing one another in a 19th century set costume drama, you better believe there’s going to be Oscar speculation. This is for good reason. Between the two performers, they’ve collected a staggering 11 Academy nods. There’s just one victory among them.
Francis Lee’s Ammonite has premiered this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. As mentioned, it casts Winslet as a paleontologist who strikes the fancy of Ronan’s wealthy wife. It is Lee’s follow-up to his hailed 2017 pic God’s Own Country.
Critical reception from up north does include some rave reviews. There are others that are decidedly more mixed and even negative. The Rotten Tomatoes score of 64% puts a Best Picture and Directing and Original Screenplay nomination into serious question. Right now, I would say it’s certainly iffy.
Tech nods like Costume Design, Score, and Production Design are feasible. Yet the main chatter centers on the leads. The likelihood is that Winslet will contend in lead Actress with Ronan in supporting. Winslet would be scoring her eighth nomination in 25 years. Her lone win was for 2008’s The Reader. Based on buzz, she appears poised to grab it. That said, let’s keep an eye on how competition plays out in the coming weeks. Frances McDormand (Nomadland) seems like a shoo-in for inclusion. There’s other potential heavy hitters in the wings, including Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Michele Pfeiffer (French Exit), and Jennifer Hudson (Respect) to name just three.
Ronan has achieved 4 nominations since 2007 for Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. She’s yet to walk to the podium. There’s a general feeling that her time is coming and I have had her ranked #1 in Supporting Actress since I began my weekly prediction posts last month. Now I’m wondering whether she even makes the final five. It is still a strong possibility, but I highly doubt you’ll see her atop the estimates this coming Thursday. I would say right now that 2020’s Supporting Actress winner probably hasn’t her movie screened yet.
Bottom line: the reception for Ammonite in Toronto raises more questions than it answers about its chances. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Ever since Nomadland was announced, it has been seen as a serious contender for the 2020 Oscars in multiple categories. This is Chloe Zhao’s follow-up to her acclaimed The Rider and it’s premiering all over the festival circuit this weekend (including Toronto and Venice) prior to its planned December 4th release. Based on reviews trickling out this afternoon, it’s living up to the hype.
The pic casts McDormand as a Nevada widow traveling the country in her van and critical reaction indicates it’s a tour de force performance from the two-time Best Actress winner. As you’ll recall, she took the gold statue in 1996 for Fargo and just three years back in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. It might seem early for such proclamations, but I’m confident enough to go on record. Frances McDormand is going to get a nomination for this. Obviously, there are plenty more films to be screened as far as her competition. This includes potential nominees like Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Kate Winslet (Ammonite), and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), among others. We shall see how that plays out, but today’s reviews opens the door for a third McDormand victory. If that were to occur, she would be just the second leading lady to win the prize more than twice. Katherine Hepburn did so four times.
David Strathairn is the other notable actor to discuss. The veteran thespian has one nomination to his credit for Best Actor in 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck. I have had him ranked at #2 (behind the late Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey) in my Supporting Actor estimates for the last two weeks. However, indications are that his role could be smaller than I originally figured. He could still get in, but I’m nowhere near confident. I suspect he won’t be at #2 when I update my projections next Thursday. Whether he’s in the top five remains to be seen (especially with multiple actors vying for spots in Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and One Night in Miami).
Nomadland also seems bound for a Best Picture nod and Zhao is certainly in line for attention with her direction. She would become just the sixth female to compete in that race and she could have company in 2020 with Regina King for Miami. Expect a wider audience to know Zhao’s name shortly as she’s making 2021’s Eternals for Disney/Marvel. Adapted Screenplay appears to be a lock and the movie’s Score and Cinematography and Editing could also be noticed.
Bottom line: Nomadland has stood as a contender for some time. The buzz out today elevates it even more, especially for Zhao and McDormand. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at the third week for my Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories and the biggest change so far can be summed up in four words: One Night in Miami.
The historical drama, which marks the debut feature film from actress Regina King, made waves when it screened this week at the Venice Film Festival. It has vaulted into the following categories for a nomination prediction: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay.
As for that supporting race, there are actually four contenders vying for attention. I’m currently giving the nod to Kingsley Ben-Adir for his portrayal of Malcolm X over his costars Leslie Odom, Jr. (Sam Cooke), Eli Goree (Cassius Clay), and Aldis Hodge (Jim Brown). Yet this could be a fluid situation and don’t be surprised if those other performers make their way to the list in future postings.
Speaking of the supporting actor race, there has been some speculation that the late Chadwick Boseman may actually be campaigned for in the lead Actor competition with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. As for now, I’m keeping him ranked first in Supporting Actor. We’ll see what transpires in the weeks ahead. If Boseman does go lead, it could open the door for Glynn Turman to get a supporting nod for the picture.
As for the week that was, my Oscar Watch posts focused on Miami, as well as some other titles that debuted as Venice. Most noteworthy is Pieces of a Woman, which has caused some chatter for its lead Vanessa Kirby and her costar Ellen Burstyn. Kirby also costars in The World to Come, which garnered solid reviews but isn’t identified in my current rankings. Other write-ups this week included The Duke (which could catch the attention of the Golden Globes for Jim Broadbent) and the heist comedic drama Kajillionaire. You can read all those detailed posts here:
With Venice still rolling along and the Toronto Film Festival set to open, this Friday will see the initial screenings of two major contenders – Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland and Francis Lee’s Ammonite. Expect Oscar Watch posts on both hopefuls this weekend.
The loser of the week is Tenet. I’ve taken it out of consideration for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. On the flip side, expect to see its name pop up again in October when I begin estimating all feature film races as it will surely nab some tech nods.
As for other developments since last Thursday:
My eight predicted Best Picture nominees from the past two weeks remains the same, but now it’s become nine with the addition of One Night in Miami.
Regina King’s inclusion in Best Director knocks out Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7.
My five Best Actress predictions remains the same, Both Vanessa Kirby and Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water) join the overall mix with Julianne Moore (The Glorias) and Jessie Buckley (I’m Thinking of Ending Things) falling out.
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) takes over the #1 spot over Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. There are no changes in the top five. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) makes his first appearance at #14 with Jesse Plemons (I’m Thinking of Ending Things) dropping out of the top 15.
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress over Ariana DeBose for West Side Story. Ellen Burstyn enters the fold at #15 with Debra Winger’s work in Kajillionaire exiting the top 15.
As mentioned, Kingsley Ben-Adir vaults from 12th to 4th in Supporting Actor and he replaces Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah. The top 15 marks the first appearances for Brian Tyree Henry (Red, White and Water) and Glynn Turman for Ma Rainey. Dropping out are Lucas Hedges in French Exit and David Alvarez in West Side Story.
In Original Screenplay, Never Sometimes Rarely Always gets its first mention since Tenet travels out of the race.
In Adapted Screenplay, One Night in Miami gets in over Dune in the top 5. First Cow makes its inaugural appearance in 14th with The Eyes of Tammy Faye dropping.
You can read the full slate of guesstimates here:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Dune (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
7. Ammonite (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
11. The Father (PR: 16)
12. Soul (PR: 10)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 14)
14. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
15. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
16. Minari (PR: 15)
17. Stillwater (PR: 18)
18. Annette (PR: 17)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 19)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23)
21. Red, White and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Respect (PR: 20)
23. French Exit (PR: 24)
24. Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 7)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 11)
11. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 14)
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 13)
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
15. Tom McCarthy, Stillwater (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christopher Nolan, Tenet
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
11. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Marion Cotillard, Annette (PR: 11)
13. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
14. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 15)
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Glorias
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 8)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 9)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11)
11. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 10)
12. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 12)
14. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5)
7. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)
10. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 11)
11. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 12)
13. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: 15)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 12)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 6)
11. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 8)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 11)
13. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 14)
14. Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, French Exit
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12)
12. Red, White and Water (PR: 14)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 13)
14. Annette (PR: 11)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 3)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
10. French Exit (PR: 11)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
13. The Humans (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Respect (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back at it next Thursday…
Writer/director Miranda July unveiled her comedic heist drama Kajillionaire back in January at the Sundance Film Festival. The pic is headlined by Westworld star Evan Rachel Wood with a supporting cast that includes Richard Jenkins, Debra Winger, and Gina Rodriguez.
Slated for a limited theatrical opening in late September with a VOD debut on October 16th, it received positive notices from critics and stands at 92% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. As to whether this receives much attention from awards voters, it could potentially be more of a factor at the Golden Globes if Focus Features places it in the Musical/Comedy competitions.
Even that could be a reach as its studio will need to mount a spirited campaign. Best Picture and Original Screenplay at the Oscars seems highly unlikely. It will, however, be worth watching if any of the actors gain any traction. My suspicion is that it would be Jenkins and Winger. The former could be competing against himself with the upcoming drama The Humans. Winger is a thrice nominated performer who hasn’t been in the mix since Shadowlands back in 1993. In my first round of ranked predictions two weeks ago, I placed her 8th in Supporting Actress, but she fell to 13th last week.
Bottom line: Kajillionaire has a limited path to any legitimate attention at the big show. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
When it comes to picking up hardware at awards shows for her acting, Regina King has been killing it lately. She’s won three Emmys for two different TV shows in the past half decade and may well win a fourth in a couple of weeks for HBO’s Watchmen. In 2019, King took Supporting Actress at the Oscars for If Beale Street Could Talk.
And now the Venice Film Festival has opened up real possibilities for her feature film directorial debut. One Night in Miami is based on the 2013 stage play by Kemp Powers, who adapted his own work here. It tells the fictionalized story of a real historical meeting involving Cassius Clay (before the name change to Ali) on the night he defeated Sonny Liston for the heavyweight title. The champ met with some other familiar names – Malcolm X, football star Jim Brown, and soul crooner Sam Cooke.
Reviews are out based on the Venice screening and Miami will be traveling to the Toronto Film Festival later this week. The verdict is strong so far with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Simply put, this feels like a legitimate contender for Oscar attention.
The acting placements will be interesting to watch. Of the four leading characters, conventional wisdom is that all four will contend in Supporting Actor. They are Kingsley Ben-Adir as Malcom X, Eli Goree as Clay, Aldis Hodge as Brown, and Leslie Odom, Jr. as Cooke. The whole quartet is receiving raves, but I’d give it a slight edge for Ben-Adir to emerge out of the pack. If he does so, he would be the second performer nominated for playing X behind Denzel Washington for Spike Lee’s Malcolm X. If Goree were to emerge, he would also be the second actor recognized for playing Ali after Will Smith portrayed him in Michael Mann’s Ali.
Furthermore, a directing nod for King would make its own history as she would be the first African-American female to make the final cut (only five women have been nominated total in the Academy’s history). Powers could in the mix for his Adapted Screenplay and a Best Picture nod seems possible. Also of note: Odom performs a closing credits song titled “Speak Now” which is being mentioned as a probable contender in Original Song.
Bottom line: one night in Venice has upped the visibility for One Night in Miami to be a player on the circuit. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Vanessa Kirby, who’s had a varied career thus far on Netflix’s The Crown and action tentpoles like Mission Impossible – Fallout and Hobbs & Shaw, is having quite a solid Venice Film Festival. Currently underway overseas, the actress received plenty of raves for her work in Pieces of a Woman and that’s led to some awards buzz.
She also stars in The World to Come, a 19th century set drama in which she engages in a forbidden romance with Katherine Waterston. Their spouses are played by Christopher Abbott and Casey Affleck. Norwegian filmmaker Mona Fastvold is behind the camera. While some critics have pointed out some flaws, World is currently spinning with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and drawing comparisons to the acclaimed Portrait of a Lady on Fire from last year.
That said, I’m a bit skittish on this getting any major Oscar attention. It’s not clear what the category placement would be for the four leads. Both Waterston and Kirby could cancel each other out in lead actress (or supporting) and I suspect the latter’s better chances are with the aforementioned Pieces.
Bottom line: despite the early acclaim, it could be a tall order for World to come to the attention of the Oscar deciders. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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