Anora was the belle of the Academy’s 97th ball last year. Sean Baker became the first person to win four Oscars in a single evening for Best Picture and his direction, screenplay, and editing. He could become a nominee at the 98th ceremony via Left-Handed Girl, a Taiwanese family drama that he co-wrote and produced. His frequent collaborator Shih-Ching Tsou shares screenplay duties and directs. It premiered at Cannes with Netflix handling streaming distribution domestically. The cast includes Janel Tsai, Shih-Yuan Ma, Nine Ye, Brando Huang, and Akio Chen.
The Rotten Tomatoes rating stands at 95% with Metacritic at 76. If Taiwan makes this the hopeful for International Feature Film, it stands a solid shot at nabbing one of the five slots. I have it 8th in my first predictions for IFF posted yesterday. If it were to make the quintet, Girl would be the fourth Taiwanese entry to be nominated and first since 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (which won). Scoring a victory likely isn’t in the cards for Tsou, Baker and company. A nod is doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!
I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.
Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.
Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.
As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.
Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me fromNowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)
17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)
18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. After the Hunt
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. Sorry, Baby
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. The Secret Agent
10. Ann Lee
11. Rental Family
12. Ella McCay
13. Is This Thing On?
14. Nouvelle Vague
15. A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hamnet
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. One Battle After Another
5. No Other Choice
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein
7. Wicked: For Good
8. The Life of Chuck
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Train Dreams
11. Die, My Love
12. Late Fame
13. Highest 2 Lowest
14. Hedda
15. The Smashing Machine
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. The President’s Cake
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirát
7. Sound of Falling
8. Left-Handed Girl
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2
2. Arco
3. Elio
4. Scarlet
5. In Your Dreams
Other Possibilities:
6. Animal Farm
7. A Magnificent Life
8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain
9. KPop Demon Hunters
10. Ne Zha 2
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Seeds
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. Deaf President Now!
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
9. The Six Billion Dollar Man
10. The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. After the Hunt
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly
7. Marty Supreme
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Bugonia
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Rivals of Amziah King
Other Possibilities:
6. F1
7. Sentimental Value
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman
5. Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Lee
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8. Mother Mary
9. Snow White
10. One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Bugonia
5. F1
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt
7. Wicked: For Good
8. One Battle After Another
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later
7. Bugonia
8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Wolf Man
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Bugonia
3. After the Hunt
4. Frankenstein
5. Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another
7. F1
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Rivals of Amziah King
10. Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. TBD from Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
10. TBD from Mother Mary
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia
7. One Battle After Another
8. Marty Supreme
9. The Phoenician Scheme
10. Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Warfare
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman
9. Frankenstein
10. Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Frankenstein
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
7. F1
8. How to Train Your Dragon
9. Tron: Ares
10. Sinners
Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
After the Hunt
7 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
6 Nominatons
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominatons
F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare
KPop Demon Hunters hit Netflix a couple weeks back and the animated feature’s title is accurate. The musical fantasy finds an all-girl group moonlighting as crime fighters. Maggie Kang and Chris Applehans direct with a voice cast including Arden Cho, Ayn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun.
Midway through 2025, we don’t have any slam dunks in the Animated Feature race. Pixar’s Elio is a box office disappointment with good but not great reviews. Potential heavy hitters like Zootopia 2 from the Mouse House and Little Amélie or The Character of Rain from GKIDS await.
However, Hunters has surprised with strong reviews and high viewing numbers on the streamer. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 97% with Metacritic at 77. That’s certainly solid enough for it to play in Animated Feature. It might come down to the campaign that Netflix mounts as their upcoming In Your Dreams will vie for the prize as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Marking the directorial debut of R.T. Thorne, dystopian thriller 40 Acres is out in limited fashion this week. Danielle Deadwyler headlines with a supporting cast including Kataem O’Connor, Michael Greyeyes, Milcania Diaz-Rojas, and Leenah Robinson.
The first reviews popped up last fall when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival. It’s now up to 88% on Rotten Tomatoes on the eve of its debut with a 65 Metacritic. Unsurprisingly, many critics are praising Deadwyler’s work. In 2022 and 2024, she likely came close to Academy nods for Till and The Piano Lesson. Those roles were more awards friendly than Acres so I wouldn’t expect her to be in the conversation this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.
American Fiction
Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.
Anatomy of a Fall
The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.
Barbie
Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.
The Holdovers
Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.
Maestro
Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.
Past Lives
Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.
Poor Things
The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.
The Zone of Interest
The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.
And that means my final 2023 five would be:
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!
None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.
The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.
Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.
Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.
That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.
Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.
While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.
In previous posts covering2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.
That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.
Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.
For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.
The body horror genre had its awards breakout last year via Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. After its January unveiling at Sundance, could Together generate attention from voters? Starring real-life married couple Alison Brie and Dave Franco, it marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts).
The exploration of codependence made a splash in Park City months ago. Hitting theaters on July 30th, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a perfect 100% (with almost 50 reviews in) with 76 on Metacritic. I probably would’ve discounted its prospects before The Substance nabbed five nods. Together is likely still a long shot for Academy attention. If it can contend anywhere, look to Original Screenplay. However, that race is already packed with potential players. Perhaps more importantly, distributor Neon will have its hands full with Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.
While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.
I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.
The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)
17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)
21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)
24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sound of Falling
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)
Best Actress
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)
11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)
14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)
Out this weekend after a Tribeca Film Festival premiere days ago, Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie, Tetris) helms the family dramedy Everything’s Going to Be Great. Focused on a clan of regional theater players, Allison Janney and Bryan Cranston are the parents in this coming-of-age tale costarring Benjamin Evan Ainsworth, Jack Champion, Simon Rex, and Chris Cooper.
According to several critics, everything in Everything‘s is not great. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 49. Despite the presence of Academy recipients like Janney and Cooper and a nominee in Cranston, this will not be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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