Oscar Predictions – Mufasa: The Lion King

30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.

And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.

Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.

Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.

In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.

Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.

I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.

Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million

For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Foe

There’s an impressive array of Oscar players involved with Foe, the sci-fi thriller that premiered at the New York Film Festival over the weekend. It’s out next weekend via Amazon Studios. Garth Davis directed the 2016 drama Lion, which scored six nominations including Best Picture. Saoirse Ronan is a four-time acting hopeful (supporting for Atonement and lead for Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women). Costar Paul Mescal made the Best Actor quintet last year for Aftersun.

Yet the Big Apple fest resulted in non-fruitful buzz for Foe. With 10 reviews up, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 10% (yes, that’s one fresh). Despite the pedigree, do not expect this to find any friends in the voting branch of the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Old Review

M. Night Shyamalan’s latest is Old and it plays like a long Twilight Zone episode which rapidly puts its subjects in that time frame of their lives. If you’ve seen the trailer or TV spots, what you see is essentially what you get. The writer/director is responsible for putting this uninteresting group on a gorgeous beach. That’s in the figurative sense since he created them. It’s also in the literal way because Shyamalan casts himself as the driver who takes them there.

Guy (Gael Garcia Bernal) and Prisca Cappa (Vicky Krieps) are on the verge of splitting up and they take their 6-year-old boy and 11-year-old daughter on a tropical excursion before they break the news. They know this is meant to be a short-lived paradise, but they get more than they bargained for. You know how parents say their youngsters act like teenagers before they should? It happens here.

The Cappas are taken to a secluded area of the island for R & R. Joining them are a surgeon (Rufus Sewell) and his snotty wife (Abbey Lee) and their 6-year-old going on 11…13…15 (eventually played by Eliza Scanlen). There’s a nurse (Ken Leung) and his wife (Nikki Amuka-Bird) that’s prone to seizures. In the latest example of eye rolling character choices, we also have a hemophiliac rapper (Aaron Pierre) who goes by the name of Mid-Sized Sedan. This might an even more cringe worthy use of a hip hop reference than James McAvoy’s MC skills in Split. 

Once placed in the breathtaking locale, all the vacationers discover they’re aging approximately one year every half hour. This is, of course, first noticed with the children. The Cappa kids morph into Thomasin McKenzie and Alex Wolff. Their elders fall prey to the typical signs of advanced age – disease, Alzheimers, low calcium content. Poor Mid-Sized Sedan never gets the chance to trade in for a cooler sounding vehicle name.

In Shyamalan’s best features (The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs), the auteur created pretty interesting characters to place in his twisty tales. That is just not the case with this group. Even a coasting Shyamalan is reliable for a few thrills, but they don’t roll in too often.

Too much of Old is filled with his clunky dialogue. The kids talk like adults before they actually are a few hours later. The surprise developments toward the end (which aren’t all that shocking) hint at a larger picture. They may have been engrossing had we not been subjected to an hour and a half of watching this dull lot waste away. This could have made a nifty Twilight Zone episode because that program ran 30 minutes. In Shyamalan’s labored production, it feels closer to a year.

** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Old

In 1999, M. Night Shyamalan’s breakout smash The Sixth Sense received six Oscar nominations, including Picture, Director, the supporting work of Haley Joel Osment and Toni Collette, and the screenplay that infamously shocked the moviegoing masses. It ended up winning none of them and since then, Shyamalan’s filmography has resulted in just one other nomination for his next 10 features (Original Score for The Village).

Conversely, we have seen 23 nods and some victories for the auteur’s work at the Razzies (which annually celebrates the worst in film). This includes four nominations each for Lady in the Water and The Happening, 8 for The Last Airbender, six with After Earth, and one for Glass. 

This brings us to Old, his latest pic opening tomorrow. The review embargo lifted today and it currently sports a somewhat decent 61% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, many critics say it encompasses the best of Shyamalan and the worst (get ready for some clunky dialogue).

No, Old will not contend for Best Picture at the Oscars (but it may not get Razzie love either). However, just a look at the trailers and TV spots indicates it could play in one race. The plot involves its cast of characters rapidly aging on a scenic beach and that involves makeup.

The Makeup and Hairstyling category is one where critical kudos doesn’t mean much. I give you previous pics such as Click, Norbit, The Lone Ranger, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil as evidence.

There will be more likely nominees in the mix such as Cruella and House of Gucci and Jessica Chastain’s forthcoming transformation as the title character in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Yet perhaps Old could have a shot here and my sixth sense says that’s at least feasible. On the flip side, perhaps when nominations come out – we will discover Old‘s viability had been dead the entire time. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…