Civil War breaks out in theaters on April 12th after a buzzy premiere at South by Southwest last month. The dystopian action flick from Alex Garland imagines a nation deeply divided in what should be timely programming in this election year. Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons are among the ensemble.
This marks Garland’s fourth directorial feature after the acclaimed Ex Machina from 2015 and 2018’s Annihilation and 2022’s Men which generated considerably more mixed reviews. Notices for War are strong with a 92% RT rating. The A24 release looks to set an all-time best opening for the distributor by topping Hereditary‘s $13.6 million debut.
That record should be set, but by how much is the question for the $50 million budgeted project. Some estimates have this at $20 million or more. I’m being a tad more conservative in the high teens.
The 2024 edition of South by Southwest recently concluded, but Problemista from Julio Torres premiered at the fest last year. Distributor A24 has at last put it into theaters this month. The quirky pic is written and directed by and stars Torres, a former SNL scribe who also co-created the HBO series Los Espookys. His directorial debut features Tilda Swinton, RZA, Greta Lee, Catalina Saavedra, James Scully, and Isabella Rossellini.
Reviews are mostly complimentary for the black comedy with an 89% RT score and particular kudos for the script and Swinton’s work. The reaction isn’t strong enough for this to have any Oscar viability. Maybe the Indie Spirit Awards will give Torres a nod in the First Screenplay competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Alex Garland’s directorial debut Ex Machina was a critically hailed sci-fi effort that earned its maker an Original Screenplay nomination and a Visual Effects win at the 2014 Oscar ceremony. His follow-ups Annihilation (despite solid reviews) and Men (which drew a considerably more mixed reaction) did not generate much awards chatter post release. Garland’s fourth feature Civil War has been unveiled at South by Southwest prior to its April 12th debut. The dystopian thriller stars Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons. This reunites the husband/wife team of Dunst and Plemons after The Power of the Dog.
Several critics are highly impressed with Civil War, which is being called both a love letter to journalists and a tense political action pic. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88%. I’m not convinced that this will become a BP or directing or original screenplay player, but it’s within the realm of possibility. Tech nods seem more doable, including Sound and perhaps Cinematography.
As for the cast, Dunst and Spaeny are receiving the most attention. Dunst is coming off her first nomination for Dog in 2021 while Spaeny would be vying for her first (she probably came close to getting in for last year’s Priscilla). I would say Civil War needs to get in the BP conversation for either to have a shot and that will remain unclear for some time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For his performance as Rustin, Colman Domingo was up for his first Oscar nomination last night as he ultimately fell short as expected to Cillian Murphy’s Oppenheimer. He could see a return to the ceremony quickly with Sing Sing. Greg Kwedar’s drama is based on a real life arts program from the maximum security prison in the title. Domingo leads a cast that includes Paul Raci (nominated for Supporting Actor in 2020 for Sound of Metal) and actual former inmates.
The film was screened in Toronto all the way back in September of last year. A24 snatched up the rights based on the north of the border acclaim (the RT rating is 95%) and have slated a July release. If the studio mounts a spirited campaign (and they probably will), Sing Sing could be an across the board contender in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and perhaps Original Score (where Bryce Dessner’s work is being singled out). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Writer/director Aaron Schimberg’s A Different Man was one of the more buzzed about titles premiering at Sundance and early reaction is that it lives up to the hype. With reviews indicating it crosses multiple genres, Sebastian Stan stars as a formerly disfigured man with Adam Pearson (who has neurofibromatosis in real life) playing him in a stage production. Renate Reinsve (who drew acclaim raves for 2021’s The Worst Person in the World) costars.
With a 90% RT score, critics are saying this is tough story to pull off and that Schimberg generally succeeds. One also gets the vibe that this is a very A24 production. Translation: mainstream crowds might be turned off.
That said, A24 could mount a campaign for two of the three top performers in particular. Stan is said to give a career best performance in lead while Pearson is getting plenty of attention for his supporting turn. You may recognize him from an extremely eerie scene in Jonathan Glazer’s Under the Skin from 2014. If those actors can be in contention, other top of the line races could follow. I wouldn’t count out a Makeup and Hairstyling nod either. Let’s see how hard its distributor pushes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24 is having a solid Sundance so far (Love Lies Bleeding, A Different Man) and Jane Schoenbrun’s horror pic I Saw the TV Glow is part of it. It is the director’s sophomore effort behind We’re All Going to the World’s Fair with Justice Smith, Brigette Lundy-Paine, Danielle Deadwyler, Helena Howard, and Limp Bizkit’s Fred Durst headlining.
Glow is shining with a 100% RT rating. This seems destined for kudos throughout the year as critics are saying this is far from a sophomore slump. That said, A24 products can be too much for the Academy and that could be the case (especially considering the genre). Don’t be surprised if this ends up on some top ten lists. I wouldn’t expect the Academy’s to be one of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Rose Glass’s 2020 directorial debut Saint Maud was a critically hailed horror tale that originally screened at Toronto in 2019. Her sophomore effort Love Lies Bleeding (out March 8th) is a Sundance affair and it is one of the more eagerly awaited titles. The 80s set noirish thriller casts Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian as lovers embroiled in crime drama. Costars include Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco.
From the reaction out of Utah, Bleeding should inspire strong reactions across the spectrum. The RT score is 90% (**Blogger’s Note: updated March 9th) with reviewers praising technical aspects (cinematography, score) and the cast (Stewart is particularly getting some shouts along with Harris). K-Stew has quite a presence at Sundance 2024. Her sci-fi two-hander Love Me with Steven Yeun is drawing mixed notices.
A24 apparently has a wild ride on its hands. If the studio play their cards right, supporting campaigns for Stewart (or maybe lead) and Harris are in order. On the other hand, this could be too out there for awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24 drops The Iron Claw into multiplexes on December 22nd. The wrestling biopic focuses on the Von Erich family, who were prominent in the sport during the 1980s. Sean Durkin directs with Zac Efron, Jeremy Allen White, Harris Dickinson, Maura Tierney, Holt McCallany, and Lily James headlining.
Critical reaction is impressive with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. In my Oscar Predictions post earlier this week, I maintain that this would be more of an awards contender had it played the festival circuit early in the fall.
Fans of wrestling and adult moviegoers looking for entertainment over the holiday weekend could cause this to over perform. $6-7 million would be a decent start from Friday to Monday (Christmas) and I think it could exceed that a little.
The Iron Claw opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
The Iron Claw is in theaters on December 22nd as it tells the true life tale of the Von Erich family of wrestlers. Recounting their triumphs and many tragedies, Sean Durkin writes and directs a cast including Zac Efron, Jeremy Allen White, Harris Dickinson, Maura Tierney, Holt McCallany, and Lily James.
The A24 release’s review embargo lifted today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at an impressive 93%. Frankly, I’m surprised the sports biopic chose to forego screenings at festivals like Toronto and Telluride. That could’ve built awards buzz for the picture itself, as well as Efron and White.
I wonder now it it’s too late in the season for Claw to reach voters. While it did make the cut in the National Board of Review’s 10 best, it was nowhere to be seen with AFI or at the Golden Globe nominations. If Claw can manage to squeeze into the SAG nods next month (for Best Ensemble or with Efron or White individually), that could help visibility with the Academy. Right now I think the likeliest scenario is it comes up empty-handed on Oscar nom morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 33rd Annual Gotham Awards were held this evening and it was looking like a potential night of missed opportunities for Celine Song’s Past Lives… until the end. Of the five nominees for Best Feature, the acclaimed A24 romantic drama was really the only one with legit Best Picture aspirations at the Oscars. It did take the top prize over Passages, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One.
This was following its director Song surprisingly not being awarded Breakthrough Director. That instead went to A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One and made the announcement for the big race a bit suspenseful.
Of the 20 pictures that have taken Best Feature at the Oscars (this category has existed since 2004 and there was a tie one year), 12 have become Academy hopefuls for BP. Half of those (The Hurt Locker, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. As a reminder, until this year, contenders for the Gothams were typically lower budgeted titles. Even with the budgetary restrictions removed, some heavy hitters like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon opted not to compete at this ceremony.
As far as Past Lives is concerned, the perception of it losing could’ve hindered its Oscar chances. So it helped itself tonight by doing what it was expected to do. That said, it missed another possible victory with Greta Lee coming up short in Outstanding Lead Performance. Lily Gladstone took the trophy… not for the non-contending Killers of the Flower Moon, but for The Unknown Country. Gladstone seems on her way to a Best Actress slot for Moon. This is another unexpected win for an awards body that frequently provides them.
Outstanding Supporting Performance went to Charles Melton in May December and he might’ve upped his Oscar stock more than anyone. This race saw potential victors like Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) end up behind him. **Note that the Gothams recently switched to ten nominees in lead and supporting without a divide for gender**. I’ve had Melton in my projected quintet recently and am feeling more and more confident about that. While Melton is a long shot to win at the big show, it should be noted that the previous two recipients (Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere) took the Supporting Actor Oscar.
Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall received the Screenplay and International Feature awards. France did not select it as their pick for International Feature Film at the Academy Awards (where it probably would’ve been locked in a fierce competition with The Zone of Interest). Fall is a coin toss for BP inclusion so every little bit helps.
Finally, Four Daughters is your Documentary Feature pick (over 20 Days in Mariupol) as it increases it exposure.
Keep an eye on the blog for an Oscar predictions update in the coming days!
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