Tag: A Star Is Born

Oscar Watch: Vox Lux

Three years ago, director Brady Corbet took home the Best Director prize and Best Debut film at Venice for The Childhood of a Leader. In 2018, he’s back at the festival with his follow-up Vox Lux. Said to be a haunting tale of a pop music princess (Natalie Portman), early word of mouth is quite encouraging for Corbet’s second effort behind the camera. Some reviewers have commented that it’s a darker take on the same themes of another festival favorite, Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born. 

Portman’s work is said to be fantastic. Her costars include Jude Law, Raffey Cassidy, and Willem Dafoe (on narrator duties), but expect any awards chatter to go to its lead. Portman has been nominated three times already for 2004’s Closer, 2010’s Black Swan (for which she won), and 2016’s Jackie. It may not hurt that Oscar voters are aware of her performance in Annihilation earlier this year, which also earned positive notices.

One important point worth noting: Vox Lux has yet to secure U.S. distribution, so it’s possible this may not hit theaters stateside in 2018. However, based on reaction from Italy, I expect that to occur in short order.

Bottom line: International pop star Lady Gaga has likely made the short list in Best Actress for A Star Is Born. Natalie Portman could potentially join that short list playing an international pop star.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: A Star Is Born

One of the most eagerly awaited pictures has debuted at Venice today with A Star Is Born. The film is the third remake of a tale that began onscreen over 80 years ago. The 1937 version starred Janet Gaynor and Fredric March. The 1954 Star featured Judy Garland and James Mason. The 1976 version featured Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson. All three of them received multiple Oscar nominations. None of them were featured in the Best Picture race.

That is probably about to change. The 2018 Star is directed, co-written, and starring Bradley Cooper in his debut behind the camera. His acting counterpart is Lady Gaga. Early reviews have praised both of their performances and it appears very likely both will be honored in their respective lead acting races. This would obviously be Gaga’s first nomination and Cooper’s fourth after Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. Cooper may well find himself honored for his direction and Adapted Screenplay alongside Eric Roth and Will Fetters.

As for supporting players, the Academy may take notice of Sam Elliot’s work as Cooper’s older brother. Critics have also pointed out the performance of Rafi Gavron as the manager of Cooper’s troubled music superstar character.

Several down the line categories could in the mix including Cinematography, Editing, both Sound races, and Gaga’s original songs that are expected to be part of the soundtrack.

Bottom line: Another contender was born today in Venice – one with serious star power.

A Star Is Born opens domestically on October 5. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: August 30th Edition

My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!

Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.

In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).

Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.

In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.

All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.

You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. A Star Is Born

3. Beautiful Boy

4. Roma

5. First Man

6. BlacKkKlansman

7. Boy Erased

8. Backseat

9. Peterloo

Other Possibilities:

10. Mary Queen of Scots

11. Widows

12. Black Panther

13. The Favourite

14. The Front Runner

15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

17. Crazy Rich Asians

18. Old Man & The Gun

19. Bohemian Rhapsody

20. Destroyer

21. Green Book

22. Mary Poppins Returns

23. At Eternity’s Gate

24. On the Basis of Sex

25. Ben Is Back

Best Director

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Damien Chazelle, First Man

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

7. Adam McKay, Backseat

8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo

10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

12. Steve McQueen, Widows

13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner

15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man

5. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Other Possibilities:

6. Christian Bale, Backseat

7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

11. Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

13. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

2. Glenn Close, The Wife

3. Viola Davis, Widows

4. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

5. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary

8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

9. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

11. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

12. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

13. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

14. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

15. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat

4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

5. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

7. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

9.. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

10. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

11. Jason Clarke, First Man

12. Sebastian Stan, Destroyer

13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

14. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

15. Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Claire Foy, First Man

4. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

5. Amy Adams, Backseat

Other Possibilities:

6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy

7. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

8. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun

9. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

10. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner

11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

13. Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer

14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Beautiful Boy

3. Boy Erased

4. A Star Is Born

5. BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man

7. Mary Queen of Scots

8. The Front Runner

9. Crazy Rich Asians

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

11. Old Man & The Gun

12. Widows

13. Disobedience

14. Wildlife

15. The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma

2. Peterloo

3. Backseat

4. Eighth Grade

5. The Favourite

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

7. Destroyer

8. Ben Is Back

9. On the Basis of Sex

10. At Eternity’s Gate

11. Green Book

12. Colette

13. A Quiet Place

14. Bohemian Rhapsody

15. Sorry to Bother You

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Over the past couple of days, you’ve seen my first round of Oscar predictions for the 2018 season. If you didn’t, here’s a reminder of my estimates for the four acting categories, Best Director, and the controversial new race Best Popular Film.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/25/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-director/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-popular-film/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Which brings me to Best Picture. For the biggest race of all, I’m listing 25 possibilities and these inaugural estimates selects 9 films being honored.

As previous posts have pointed out, the Film Festival season that begins in earnest next week with Venice and then Toronto. The feats will tremendously shape my weekly predictions. They start August 30.

For now, my initial take on Best Picture:

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

A Star Is Born

Beautiful Boy

BlacKkKlansman

Boy, Erased

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Queen of Scots

Peterloo

Roma

Other Possibilities:

A Quiet Place

At Eternity’s Gate

Backseat

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Crazy Rich Asians

Destroyer

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

The Front Runner

Life Itself

Mary Poppins Returns

Old Man & The Gun

On the Basis of Sex

Widows

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-popular-film/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.

Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Damien Chazelle, First Man

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 

Joel Edgerton, Boy, Erased

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Mike Leigh, Peterloo

David Lowry, Old Man & The Gun

Adam McKay, Backseat

Steve McQueen, Widows

Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Popular Film

My extremely early Oscar predictions for 2018 bring us to something brand new and quite controversial. Yes, I’m talking the category that we will see for the first time at next year’s ceremony: Best Popular Film.

The announcement last month by the Academy of this new race was met with a whole lotta criticism. And even if you weren’t one of the voices on the negative side, the category has caused understandable confusion.

We still don’t know the criteria for a nomination here. Over $100 million at the box office? How wide was its release?

The Academy did clear up one big question. Movies nominated in this category can also be featured in the Best Picture race. It’s a legitimate question as to whether or not that will happen. For instance, A Star Is Born could be primed for the big race. Yet it seems likely to cross the century mark. How about Incredibles 2? It’s a shoo-in for a nod in Best Animated Feature, so will voters acknowledge it in both categories? For now, I’m saying no. Many prognosticators believe this could be the Academy’s way of honoring Black Panther. We shall see.

Bottom line… plenty of uncertainty here, but here’s my first take on the first year of Best Popular Film.

Best Director and then Picture are up next! If you missed my estimates for the four acting races, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Popular Film

A Quiet Place

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

Mary Poppins Returns

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Other Possibilities:

Aquaman

A Star Is Born

Avengers: Infinity War

Deadpool 2

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Incredibles 2

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Ocean’s 8

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Ready Player One

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Back at it again today with my very early Oscar predictions for 2018! We are now at Best Actor.

Yesterday, I discussed the Supporting categories. Earlier today, I posted my initial predictions for Actress. If you missed my take on them, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

As mentioned in those posts, these are an early bird snapshot of where I see the races before they come into sharper focus beginning next week. That’s when the film festival kicks off and many of the Oscar bait fall titles will be screened for critics. Starting next Thursday (August 30), I’ll begin posting my weekly ranked predictions in the major film categories.

Tomorrow – look for Best Director and my first take on the new category everyone is talking about – Best Popular Film. Best Picture should be up Sunday!

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, Backseat

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Lucas Hedges, Boy, Erased

Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Back at it again today with my very early Oscar predictions for 2018!

Yesterday, I discussed the Supporting categories. If you missed my take on them, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

As mentioned in those posts, these are an early bird snapshot of where I see the races before they come into sharper focus beginning next week. That’s when the film festival kicks off and many of the Oscar bait fall titles will be screened for critics. Starting next Thursday (August 30), I’ll begin posting my weekly ranked predictions in the major film categories.

Today brings us Best Actress and I’ll have Best Actor up later today!

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close, The Wife

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favoruite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Keira Knightley, Colette

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

It’s an exciting time on the blog as Oscar prediction season is here. Readers of this here know that every Thursday starting very soon, I will be posting weekly Oscar predictions in the six major categories… wait, make that seven as I will now be including the new and controversial Most Popular Film race.

We turn our attention to Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my early predictions for Supporting Actress, you can find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

A word of warning: these are very early predictions and they will unquestionably change. I like to do my first estimates before the film festival season approaches (beginning next week). Toronto and Venice and other fests will surely shape my predictions in a massive away. Expect lots of Oscar Watch posts in the next month concentrating on dozens of screened movies at the festivals.

Beginning next Thursday (August 30), I will begin my weekly posts listing 25 possibilities for Picture and 15 in the other major races. At that time, numerical rankings will come into play. In November, that will switch to 15 listings for Picture and 10 in ALL other categories honoring feature films.

Let’s get to it!

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Joel Edgerton, Boy, Erased

Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Sam Rockwell, Backseat

Other Possibilities:

Casey Affleck, Old Man & The Gun

Kyle Chandler, First Man

Russell Crowe, Boy, Erased

Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick 

David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Actress and Actor will be up in short order!

Oscar Watch: Crazy Rich Asians

Opening next week, Crazy Rich Asians has the potential to be a late summer sleeper hit. Based on a bestseller by Kevin Kwan, the romantic comedy is said to be a crowd pleaser. Critics have taken notice. The film stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a far cry from previous directorial efforts from Jon M. Chu, who made G.I. Joe: Retaliation and Jem and the Holograms.

If this picture manages to be a success, could Oscar voters take notice of the first Asian-American led studio effort in a quarter century (since The Joy Luck Club)? That will depend on competition. The only race I see where this could possibly be included is Best Adapted Screenplay.

Last year, the competition in that particular race was lighter than usual. That may not be the case this year with potential contenders like BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, First Man, A Star is Born, Beautiful Boy, and Boy, Erased. However, if some of those titles don’t match expectations (which is often the case), Crazy Rich Asians could make a play.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…