A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.

While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.

For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.

Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).

While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.

While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Queer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilites:

6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A New Kind of Wilderness

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anora

Blitz

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible

Saturday Night

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilties:

6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Twisters

Conclave

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper