Tag: A Different Man

97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: A Real Pain

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

All signs point to The Substance.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

This should be Dune‘s other victory.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: Better Man

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

Oscars: The Case of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other Actor nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Sebastian Stan:

As Donald Trump building out his real estate career, Stan embodied the future President with BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations in tow.

The Case Against Sebastian Stan:

Making the Oscar quintet was a question mark since he probably split votes with his other heralded 2024 work in A Different Man. For that role, he took home the Golden Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy) while losing the Actor in a Drama prize and the BAFTA to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Stan did not make the cut at Critics Choice or SAG.

The Verdict:

Brody and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are out front and Stan is not considered a threat to either of them.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Supporting Actress and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez…

Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
Oscars: The Case of Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

97th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.

As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.

Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 9/10

The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

How I Did: 4/5

DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

How I Did: 5/5

The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/5

Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Anora is expected to shine.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Conclave is expected to shine.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 3/5

After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

How I Did: 3/5

Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

How I Did: 3/5

My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

How I Did: 3/5

I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This is where The Substance could materialize.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

How I Did: 3/5

“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This could be a Wicked win.

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?

And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.

Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:

13 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Wicked

8 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

6 Nominations

Anora

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, The Substance

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards: FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.

Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.

Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariane Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Vermiglio

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Moana 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Daughters

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Sugarcane

Will & Harper

Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST FILM EDITING

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

BEST SOUND

Blitz

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Twisters

Runner-Up: Wicked

That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance

3 Nominations

A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio

I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

5 Nominations

The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

82nd Golden Globes Awards Reaction

Before we get to the headlines (and certainly there are), let’s dispense with some quick takes on the 82nd Golden Globes Awards ceremony. Nikki Glaser did a very good job hosting and I’d expect to see her back. Seth Rogen correctly pointed out that the camera angle on the presenters tonight was awkward. And Vin Diesel made the evening awkward too when he said hi from the stage to Dwayne Johnson. They famously did not get along working together on Fast and Furious franchise features.

Back to the awards. I went 9 for 15 in my picks. Quite frankly, I would’ve been pleased with getting over half in this unpredictable ceremony and I did so I’ll take it. Emilia Pérez had a big night with four victories. So did The Brutalist with three. Anora… not so much.

Jacques Audiard’s Pérez took three prizes I predicted it would in Non-English Language Film, Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Original Song (“El Mal”). Yet I had it falling short to Sean Baker’s Anora for Best Musical/Comedy and it prevailed. Has Pérez‘s stock risen? Probably.

Those who have followed my Oscar predictions on the blog will notice I’ve never had Anora listed in first in Best Picture. A lot of other prognosticators have. I’m not patting myself on the back. This is one of the more unpredictable seasons in memory. I’ve just never bought the narrative that Anora will take the grand prize and tonight fuels it.

A bigger surprise than Anora losing Musical/Comedy, in my view, was Mikey Madison not taking Actress. That went instead to Demi Moore in The Substance, who gave the strongest acceptance speech of the night. You have to wonder if this makes Moore the frontrunner. I have had Madison listed for weeks in 1st place for the Academy’s Actress statue and that could change when I update my picks in the next couple of days (hopefully tomorrow). Anora also didn’t get Screenplay and I thought it would. That went instead to Conclave.

After Conclave‘s screenplay award, I thought maybe it would go onto take Best Drama. However, Globe voters opted for The Brutalist (which my was pick). Its maker Brady Corbet won Director. I also had it forecasted for Original Score but that went to Challengers in a surprise call. I’ve had The Brutalist placed in 1st for months in BP for the Oscars. Interestingly, in the previous ten years, only 3 GG Drama winners correlated with Oscar (Moonlight, Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). I still think it’s the odds on favorite.

Adrien Brody did give The Brutalist a third Globe in Best Actor and I went with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. This could signal Brody’s performance will be favored in ceremonies to come. I also missed Best Actress (Drama). I went with Angelina Jolie in Maria while my runner-up Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) made the podium walk.

With Moore and Torres victorious over Madison and Jolie, the Oscar Best Actress is looking wide open with several hopefuls jockeying for position.

Let’s run down some races I got right. Kieran Culkin is your Supporting Actor for A Real Pain. The hard to figure out Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy derby is one I was lucky with when Sebastian Stan in A Different Man was picked. Wicked took the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award. And I will pat myself on the back for going with Flow in Animated Feature instead of The Wild Robot.

So where do we stand now with Oscar as I prepare a new forecast? Anora is down. Emilia is up. The Brutalist holds strong. Demi Moore could be a real threat in Actress. And I think Dwayne Johnson still dislikes Vin Diesel…

31st SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.

Predicted Nominees:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.

Predicted Nominees:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.

Predicted Nominees:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)

Predicted Nominees:

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.

Predicted Nominees:

Anora

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.

Predicted Nominees:

Deadpool & Wolverine

Dune: Part Two

The Fall Guy

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator II

Runner-Up: Monkey Man

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

4 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked

2 Nominations

Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance

I’ll have a recap up with how I did on Wednesday!