Sci-fi horror pic AfrAId and political biopic Reagan are two newcomers working hard to attract viewers over Labor Day weekend, but it should be holdovers shining atop the box office hill. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Over the four-day frame, I don’t believe either fresh flick will manage to hit double digits. As an aside, there are other newbies out like 1992 with Tyrese Gibson and the late Ray Liotta and Slingshot with Casey Affleck and Laurence Fishburne. There’s also the family sports tale You Gotta Believe. I didn’t do individual write-ups on this trio as I have a tough time envisioning any of them approaching the top five (or top 8 for that matter). If any of them have a shot of surprising, maybe Believe does but I wouldn’t count on it.
AfrAId from Blumhouse should be the best performer of the debuts. That still could mean only high single digits for a third place showing at best or fourth or fifth.
How Reagan rolls out is a big question mark. With Dennis Quaid as the 40th POTUS, it might over perform if conservatives come out in force. I’m skeptical and my mid single digits take puts it outside the high five.
The seasonal leftovers usually have small percentage drops over this holiday frame from Friday to Monday. I would anticipate that Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, and It Ends with Us will maintain spots 1-3. Faith-based drama The Forge nabbed an A+ Cinemascore this past weekend and should hold steady (same goes for Blink Twice). That could mean both earn more than Reagan.
Here’s how I have it shaking out and we’ll do a top 8 forecast as the summer season closes out. These are Friday to Monday estimates:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. AfrAId
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
5. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
6. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
8. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 23-25)
Deadpool & Wolverine clawed its way back to the #1 slot after a week away. The MCU behemoth took in $18.3 million in its fifth week, in range with my $19.2 million prediction. It is up to $577 million total.
Alien: Romulus slid precipitously to second in its sophomore outing. Down 61%, the gross was $16.3 million (a bit under my $17.8 million call) for $72 million thus far.
It Ends with Us stayed in third with $11.6 million, a tad shy of my $13.4 million projection. The three-week haul is $120 million.
A trio of newcomers generally underwhelmed. Blink Twice fared best in fourth at $7.3 million. That doesn’t match my $8.5 million estimate though it’s an OK result considering the reported $20 million price tag.
The Forge was fifth at $6.6 million and that’s on target with my $7.1 million prediction. As mentioned, it should hold well considering the Cinemascore grade.
Finally, The Crow didn’t fly with viewers. The reboot tanked in 8th place with just $4.6 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.
1989 was unquestionably the Summer of the Bat as Tim Burton’s take on the Caped Crusader broke records. For 1992, it’s a bit more murky but we could call it The Summer of the Cat based on the sequel being the season’s biggest blockbuster.
As I have every season on the blog, I’m recounting the top 10 hits as well as some notable pics and failures from the summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. For 1992, it was a time of no crying in baseball, a Best Picture winner being discovered, and audiences refusing a biopic about a discoverer of America.
We begin with the moneymakers from #10 on up before moving to additional hits, misses, and those somewhere in between.
10. Housesitter
Domestic Gross: $58 million
While not the blockbuster he’d had just six months prior with Father of the Bride, Steve Martin had a midsize performer with this rom com costarring Goldie Hawn.
9. Honey, I Blew Up the Kid
Domestic Gross: $58 million
The return of Rick Moranis and plenty of special effects had shrunken grosses compared to the predecessor. The $58 million tally is less than half of what Honey, I Shrunk the Kids made. Nevertheless a direct to video sequel and TV series followed.
8. Far and Away
Domestic Gross: $58 million
Tom Cruise is ruling summer 2022 with Top Gun: Maverick. It was a different story 30 years ago with this rare misfire. Ron Howard directed the epic Western costarring Tom’s ex Nicole Kidman. The domestic take was less than the reported $60 million budget. Cruise would quickly get back in the good graces of moviegoers later in 1992 with A Few Good Men.
7. Boomerang
Domestic Gross: $70 million
While not approaching the earnings of his largest hits, Eddie Murphy’s first foray into romantic leading man territory did decent business. A string of flops would follow before a plus sized comeback four years later in The Nutty Professor.
6. Patriot Games
Domestic Gross: $83 million
Harrison Ford stepped into the role of Jack Ryan after Alec Baldwin (who played the role in The Hunt for Red October) didn’t return. The result didn’t quite reach the financial or critical levels of its predecessor, but it easily made enough to warrant Clear and Present Danger two summers later.
5. Unforgiven
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Clint Eastwood’s tale of an aging cowboy out for revenge took the August box office by storm and eventually was an awards favorite – winning Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor for the villainous Gene Hackman. Unforgiven is the rare BP winner to release in the summer season and kickstarted an impressive second act for the legendary filmmaker.
4. A League of Their Own
Domestic Gross: $107 million
Penny Marshall’s World War II era baseball comedy was celebrated for its interplay between players like Geena Davis, Madonna, and Rosie O’Donnell in addition to one of cinema’s longest urination sequences from Tom Hanks.
3. Sister Act
Domestic Gross: $139 million
Coming on the heels of her Ghost Oscar, Whoopi Goldberg hit the jackpot with this fish out of water pic putting the comedienne in a convent. A less regarded sequel would follow in December 1993 as well as a Broadway musical.
2. Lethal Weapon 3
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Mel Gibson and Danny Glover’s third go-round in their buddy cop franchise didn’t generate the reviews of its two predecessors, but it had no trouble raking in the bucks. Rene Russo joined the party this time as Gibson’s love interest and fellow officer. Part 4 would come six years later and a fifth is in development right now.
1. Batman Returns
Domestic Gross: $162 million
Breathlessly anticipated and then received with mixed reaction due to its dark tone, Batman Returns is now seen by many as an improvement over the 1989 original. One thing that’s generally agreed upon is Michelle Pfeiffer nailing the role of Catwoman. This would be Burton’s last time helming the series with Joel Schumacher taking the franchise in a far more cartoonish direction for 1995’s Batman Forever.
And now for some other noteworthy selections outside of the top ten:
Unlawful Entry
Domestic Gross: $57 million
Coming on the heels of the Rodney King verdict and the L.A. Riots, this thriller starring the late Ray Liotta as a dirty cop tormenting Kurt Russell felt timely.
Single White Female
Domestic Gross: $48 million
Liotta was the Cop From Hell while Jennifer Jason Leigh was the Roommate From Hell terrorizing Bridget Fonda in this memorable psychological thriller.
Encino Man
Domestic Gross: $40 million
The cinematic era of MTV personality Pauly Shore (as well as Brendan Fraser) began with this caveman comedy that grossed several times its meager $7 million budget.
Universal Soldier
Domestic Gross: $36 million
Action lunkheads Jean-Claude Van Damme and Dolph Lundgren teamed up for this futuristic sci-fi pic that turned a nifty profit and spawned numerous sequels. Four summers later, director Roland Emmerich would dominate the season with Independence Day.
Honeymoon in Vegas
Domestic Gross: $35 million
With a plot similar to Indecent Proposal that would follow a few months later, Honeymoon in Vegas took the more comedic route and earned decent grosses in the cast led by Nicolas Cage, Sarah Jessica Parker, and the just departed James Caan. Plus… Flying Elvis impersonators!
Buffy the Vampire Slayer
Domestic Gross: $16 million
It did manage to double its meager budget, but this vampire comedy likely wouldn’t be remembered had it not led to a critically acclaimed WB series starring Sarah Michelle Gellar. The title role in the film version belonged to Kristy Swanson with a supporting cast including Luke Perry, Paul Reubens (aka Pee-Wee Herman), and pre double Oscar winner Hilary Swank.
My final section of the summer 1992 recap gets to the under performers and downright flops…
Death Becomes Her
Domestic Gross: $58 million
This star studded satire from Robert Zemeckis boasted Meryl Streep, Goldie Hawn, and Bruce Willis above the title and some innovative special effects. While it just missed the top ten, the $58 million take barely surpassed the $55 million budget. Audiences and critics were mixed though Death has become a cult favorite in subsequent years.
Alien 3
Domestic Gross: $55 million
Despite marking the directorial debut of David Fincher and featuring a memorably bald Sigourney Weaver, Alien 3 is considered to be a step-down from its iconic predecessors Alien and Aliens. In spite of the backlash, the franchise has continued and, of course, Fincher went onto brighter (albeit even darker) pastures.
Cool World
Domestic Gross: $14 million
Animator Ralph Bakshi is best known for his X-rated 1972 feature Fritz the Cat. After Cool World, he was still mostly known for Fritz the Cat. This hybrid of live-action and cartoon fantasy starred Kim Basinger and Brad Pitt. Yet it bombed with reviewers and crowds alike and only earned half its budget back stateside.
Christopher Columbus: The Discovery
Domestic Gross: $8 million
No one had interest in discovering this critically drubbed Columbus biopic that had Marlon Brando and Tom Selleck in the cast. Later in the fall, Ridley Scott’s 1492: Conquest of Paradise about the title character would also bomb.
Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me
Domestic Gross: $4 million
In 1990, David Lynch’s bizarre TV series was a cultural phenomenon… at least for a season. The movie version arrived after the second and final season and audiences had tuned out.
And that’s your look at the cinematic summer from 30 years ago! My recap of 2002 will be available in short order…
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