Tag: 12 Years a Slave

Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Third Take

Here we are with November arriving and that means it’s time for my third round of predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the six major categories at the Oscars. Let’s break them down by category, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

I am still sticking with my estimate of nine pictures getting recognition – just like the two previous years. The family drama August: Osage County seems to be losing steam so it’s the only pic I’ve taken out. I’ve replaced it with Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. The slot could just as easily go to John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks or Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Her, Blue is the Warmest Color, Fruitvale Station, Dallas Buyer’s Club, and Lone Survivor.

The predicted nine:

All is Lost

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron are absolute shoo-ins for nominations. After that, things get complicated. I’ve taken out Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis and replaced them with Paul Greengrass for his work in Captain Phillips. David O. Russell and his efforts in American Hustle remain another prediction. I’m still (somewhat stubbornly) including J.C. Chandor for All is Lost, even though few others have him in. There were simply so many surprises in the Director category last year that I have to include a surprise pick. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, Lee Daniels for The Butler, Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine. and John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks.

Predictions:

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here from a month ago: I’m including Joaquin Phoenix as a somewhat surprise pick for Spike Jonze’s Her and taking out Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. More contenders who missed the five: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street), and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis).

Predictions:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Robert Redford, All is Lost

BEST ACTRESS

This is the only category where I have no changes from a month ago. This still seems to be a close race between Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock. I was tempted to put Emma Thompson in for Saving Mr. Banks on here but didn’t feel comfortable taking any of the other five out right now. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Kate Winslet (Labor Day), and Julie Delpy (Before Midnight).

Predictions:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category seems to be the most wide open at press time. The only surefire nominee in my mind is Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave. I’ve taken out the late James Gandolfini for Enough Said and replaced him with Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. Others who didn’t make it but could easily be included later: Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks, John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis, Matthew McConaughey for Mud (especially if he’s not recognized for Dallas Buyer’s Club in lead Actor), Daniel Bruhl for Rush, Josh Brolin in Labor Day, Jake Gyllenhall in Prisoners, and Harrison Ford in 42.

Predictions:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Many believe this race will come down to Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave vs. Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Both Margo Martindale and Julia Roberts in August: Osage County are possible, but I’ve taken Martindale out and replaced her with June Squibb in Nebraska as the only change. Other possible nominees: Sarah Paulson in 12 Years a Slave and Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station.

Predictions:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it – round 3 is in the books! I’ll be back with round 4 in the coming weeks! Please note: my next round of predictions (around Thanksgiving most likely) will include my first forecast for winners in each race. Stay tuned.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results: October 25-27

The three-week domination of Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity is over and it is Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa becoming the only other #1 film in the month of October with an impressive debut. Grandpa earned $32 million in its debut, above my $28.3M prediction. This marks the second highest opening in the Jackass franchise and shows that the series hasn’t even come close to losing any steam.

Gravity fell to the #2 spot with $20.3 million in its fourth frame, slightly below my $21.2M prediction. It currently stands at $199 million and the possibility of reaching $300M domestic is still alive (especially when it starts earning Oscar nominations in the beginning of 2014).

In its third weekend, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks was third with $11.8 million, slightly higher than my $10.9M estimate. Phillips stands at $70M and should cross the century mark later on.

Ridley Scott’s The Counselor could not capitalize on its all-star cast that included Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Riding a wave of mostly negative reviews, The Counselor flopped with only $8 million for a fourth place showing, well below my $13.8M prediction. Moviegoers were simply ambivalent about the pic and I have no doubt that the weak reviews certainly didn’t help.

The Carrie remake received zero help from the Halloween time frame and tumbled 63% in its sophomore frame with only $5.9 million – below my $7.6M estimate. This actually put the horror flick in sixth place and allowed the animated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 to be #5 with $6.1M.

Outside of the top five, the acclaimed 12 Years a Slave was #8, grossing a robust $2.1 million on only 123 screens. The picture, which is looked at as an Oscar front runner, expands to more screens this Friday.

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have prediction posts up for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Ender’s Game, Last Vegas, and Free Birds.