Pulitzer Prize winning playwright Annie Baker enters the cinematic realm penning and directing Janet Planet. The coming-of-age drama doesn’t hit screens until June 21st, but it debuted at Telluride last fall and a trailer is now up. Julianne Nicholson, newcomer Zoe Ziegler, Elias Koteas, Sophie Okonedo, and Will Patton are among the cast members.
Reviews range from raves to just so-so write-ups with a RT score at 83%. Variety, for example, lovingly compares it to the acclaimed Eighth Grade (another A24 project). Praise for Nicholson and Ziegler is particularly strong. The former is one of those actresses who may not be far away from their Oscar play. An Emmy winner for Mare of Easttown, Nicholson has shown up recently in Blonde and Dream Scenario and draws positive notices everywhere she turns up.
I’m not confident Janet Planet is that project. A24 would need to mount a serious campaign and they might be preoccupied elsewhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My very first glimpse of the acting races, Director, and Picture for the 97th Academy Awards reaches Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it here:
When I did my initial speculation for this competition in 2023 (just about a year ago), it yielded one eventual nominee and that was Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers in addition to fellow nominee Jodie Foster (Nyad). I did not identify Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) or America Ferrera (Barbie) at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Performers listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress.
This premiere post highlights plenty of veteran thespians with previous noms. It is worth noting that none of them are previous victors. We also have some newcomers to the awards scene.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Civil War breaks out in theaters on April 12th after a buzzy premiere at South by Southwest last month. The dystopian action flick from Alex Garland imagines a nation deeply divided in what should be timely programming in this election year. Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons are among the ensemble.
This marks Garland’s fourth directorial feature after the acclaimed Ex Machina from 2015 and 2018’s Annihilation and 2022’s Men which generated considerably more mixed reviews. Notices for War are strong with a 92% RT rating. The A24 release looks to set an all-time best opening for the distributor by topping Hereditary‘s $13.6 million debut.
That record should be set, but by how much is the question for the $50 million budgeted project. Some estimates have this at $20 million or more. I’m being a tad more conservative in the high teens.
In 2022, veteran thespian Bill Nighy nabbed his first Oscar nomination for the period drama Living. He’s in coach mode with The Beautiful Game as the leader of a homeless squad of footballers. Thea Sharrock, also behind the camera for the just out Wicked Little Letters with Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley, directs the sports drama. The supporting cast includes Micheal Ward from Empire of Light (where he romanced Ms. Colman), Valeria Golino of Rain Man and Hot Shots! fame, and Susan Wokoma.
Following a limited release, Game hit Netflix last weekend to generally pleasing notices (the RT score is 87%). While Nighy’s performance is predictably being praised, this doesn’t appear poised to generate awards buzz and that probably wasn’t the goal in the first place. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.
This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.
With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.
The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.
The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $31.8 million
2. Monkey Man
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. The First Omen
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (March 29-31)
March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.
Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.
Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.
Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.
Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.
A pair of Academy Award recipients headline the thriller Mothers’ Instinct from Benoît Delhomme. A remake of a 2018 French flick from Olivier Masset-Depasse (which itself was based on a 2012 novel by Barbara Abel), Jessica Chastain (Best Actress victor for 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Anne Hathaway (Supporting Actress honoree for 2012’s Les Miserables) are feuding housewives in the 1960s. Josh Charles, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Caroline Lagerfelt costar.
Stateside distribution is still being worked out, but Instinct came out in the U.K. this past week. Reviews thus far are a bit on the basic side with a 58% RT rating. Despite a handful of nominations and the two wins between the two leads, this does not appear to be an awards player. The only exception could be the period piece costumes, but this could well be forgotten by the time ballots are being filled out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Despite being a well-known horror series that’s been around for nearly half a century, The First Omen is the first franchise entry in nearly two decades. Serving as a prequel to the 1976 original, Arkasha Stevenson makes her directorial debut with a cast including Nell Tiger Free, Tawfeek Barhom, Sônia Braga, Ralph Ineson, and Bill Nighy.
Genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately from Immaculate to Imaginary to Late Night with the Devil. 20th Century Studios is hoping the brand name helps here, but that could be a stretch. As mentioned, you have to go back 18 years to the last time we had an Omen flick. The 2006 remake premiered in the summer of 2006 and capitalized by debuting on Tuesday, June 6th of that year (get it?). Despite poor reviews, the gambit paid off at first with a $16 million start from Friday to Sunday and $36 million when factoring in those extra three days of release. However, it managed to tumble 65% in its sophomore outing and wound up with a so-so $54 million domestically.
All of that exposition is a way of saying that this franchise doesn’t have the juice of a Conjuring or Insidious or even Evil Dead, to name some. There’s always the chance that horror exceeds expectations. With that caveat, I’ll say low teens is where this lands with a famously unlucky number.
The First Omen opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
The previous four features in Universal’s MonsterVerse franchise have yielded precisely one Oscar nomination and it was for the movie without Godzilla in the title. That would be the second feature 2017’s Kong: Skull Island for its Visual Effects (it lost to Blade Runner 2049). The other entries with the jolly green giant on the poster – 2014’s Godzilla, 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and 2021’s Godzilla vs. Kong – didn’t make the VE competition or any other.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is out this Easter weekend and reviews are mixed. Adam Wingard directs with Rebecca Hall, Brian Tyree Henry, Dan Stevens, Kaylee Hottle, Alex Ferns, and Fala Chen among the human cast. The monster mash sits below the 76% RT score that (strangely enough) Godzilla, Skull Island, and Godzilla vs. Kong share. The 62% rating is above the 42% that King of the Monsters was saddled with.
Visual Effects is really the only possibility unless there’s a surprise Sound nod. The VE are being singled out by some writers. What’s transpired already in the MonsterVerse suggests it’s an uphill battle for final five inclusion. Academy voters also honored the title character just last year when Japan’s Godzilla Minus One won the category (giving Godzilla his first gold statue). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Unlike 2016’s ballyhooed female Ghostbusters reboot or 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife (which served as a sequel to the first two), Frozen Empire doesn’t need to burden itself with spending time introducing new characters to mix with the oldies and three-year-old newbies. The fifth franchise feature, unlike Afterlife, doesn’t have to employ a long windup before it nourishes our nostalgic hankerings. Unfortunately it still does yet I found it slightly more fulfilling than its two predecessors. That’s not sizzling praise, but I wasn’t totally cold to its charms and it’s the fresher characters that often shine.
You may recall that Afterlife introduced us to Egon Spengler’s brood that he abandoned for what turned out to be noble reasons. Granddaughter Phoebe (Mckenna Grace) is Harold Ramis’s spitting image in look, spirit, and overall nerdiness. She’s moved from Oklahoma to NYC along with mom (Carrie Coon), stepdad (Paul Rudd), and brother (Finn Wolfhard) and they’ve set up shop in that iconic firehouse where their patriarch slid down the pole with the OG ‘Busters. They are carrying on the family tradition and, yes, it makes them feel good until Mayor Walter Peck (William Atherton, returning after four decades after a memorable role in the original) sidelines Phoebe. Ray (Dan Aykroyd) and Winston (Ernie Hudson) and Janine (Annie Potts, finally getting to put on a uniform) are still around as is Venkman (Bill Murray)… sort of. One gets the impression that Murray crashes the party just long enough for the paycheck and perhaps a week on set. He still fits in a drolly satisfying one-liner or two as only he can.
There’s a lot of characters to keep up with and the script from director Gil Kenan and Jason Reitman develops juggle problems. Rudd and Coon, whose romance was a focal point three years ago, are given the short shrift. Wolfhard and Celeste O’Connor (who hit it off in Oklahoma as well) fare even worse. Same goes for Phoebe’s buddy Podcast (Logan Kim).
The most promising additions are the brand new ones that factor into the plot. Lazy Nadeem (Kumail Nanjiani) sells his dead grandma’s shiny orb to Ray for a quick few bucks. It turns out to be a device that could start a new ice age while also summoning previously captured spirits back to the Big Apple. Nanjiani’s comedic spirits are a high point. Patton Oswalt’s quick work as a library employee in the New York Public Library is one of the better scenes. We have Emily Alyn Lind as a long departed apparition trying to reunite with her loved ones. In the meantime, she plays chess with Phoebe with a slight romantic undertone. Some of this material is decent enough that I wondered whether the wistful remembrances of what entertained us from 1984 is needed anymore.
Saying that Empire is the best sequel in the series is really not saying much. A more appropriate way to say it might be that it’s the least disappointing. Many of the same drawbacks of what came between 1984 and 2024 are present. I did, however, find it funnier than the schmaltzy Afterlife. Maybe there’s a little life left in this franchise after all. Frozen Empire shows that sporadically.
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