The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.
None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.
So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.
I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.
Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.
As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.
Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.
M. Night Shyamalan and Warner Bros hope Trap fills movie houses on August 2nd. The thriller casts Josh Hartnett as a serial killer trying to thwart a manhunt while attending a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Mr. Shyamalan’s own daughter Saleka plays the artist at the venue. Hayley Mills (known for The Parent Trap some 63 years ago) and Alison Pill costar.
The writer/director experienced a mini career resurgence starting with 2017’s Split. His last two efforts haven’t generated huge numbers, but have been profitable due to low budgets. 2021’s Old started with $16 million and then grossed $48 million overall domestically. Last year’s Knock at the Cabin premiered to $14 million and $34 million total stateside. Both had reported price tags in the high teens to $20 million.
I haven’t seen the cost for Trap but its gimmick of a one place setting can’t be too expensive. Shyamalan’s pics do their business based on his name though there’s certainly limits compared to his early 2000s heyday. I doubt this will make much more than his aforementioned predecessors so let’s go high teens to low 20s.
Trap opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million
For my Harold and the Purple Crayon prediction, click here:
Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman come together for what should be the biggest opening of 2024 so far in Deadpool & Wolverine. The MCU pic is poised to dominate the weekend though Susan Sarandon and Bette Midler will try to bring in older females with The Fabulous Four. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
My take on Deadpool & Wolverine gives it the 16th best domestic start of all time (and ninth highest for the MCU). The projected number puts it above Mr. Pool’s two direct predecessors.
Let’s dispense with Fabulous. My tiny $1.5 million estimate puts the geriatric comedy well outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Twisters could fall by over 50% after its terrific start (more on that below). I’m going to be a bit more generous and say it eases in the high 40s. The animated offerings of Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 should hold the 3-4 slots with Longlegs rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the frame ahead:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $176.1 million
2. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $42 million
3. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (July 19-21)
Twisters blew away expectations with $81.2 million, eclipsing my $72.3 million take. It also edged Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as the year’s biggest live-action debut (a record that will stand until this weekend per above).
Despicable Me 4 slid to second with $24.4 million, on target with my $24.8 million prediction for a three-week total of $260 million.
Inside Out 2 was third with $12.8 million. That’s right in line with my $13.2 million call as the Pixar behemoth is up to $596 million in six weeks.
Longlegs had solid legs in fourth with $11.9 million in weekend #2. I was close at $11 million and it has $44 million in its coffers.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fifth with $6.3 million (I said $6.6 million) for $127 million after four outings.
The super matchup of Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman as their most iconic characters hits theaters on Friday with Deadpool & Wolverine. The third pic in the Deadpool series also marks Jackman’s 10th go-round as the clawed mutant. Shawn Levy directs with Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, and Karan Soni among the supporting players.
Reviews for the Deadpool trilogy have some consistency. The 2016 original has an 85% RT score while the 2018 sequel sports 84%. With the embargo up today, D & W sits at 79%. 2017’s Logan, Jackman’s previous appearance in the role, was more acclaimed at 93% and it landed an Adapted Screenplay nomination from the Academy.
The Deadpool movies have garnered zero Oscar nods. Part one was up at Golden Globes for Best Musical/Comedy and Reynolds for Actor in a Musical/Comedy (losing to La La Land and its lead Ryan Gosling, respectively). Part two was blanked by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. I wouldn’t anticipate part three getting noticed by the Academy or the HFPA. While several MCU titles have managed Visual Effects mentions, Mr. Pool has not and I do not believe it’ll start here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Out July 26th, The Fabulous Four is the latest entry in the growing number of comedies centered on senior women. The actresses making up the title quartet are Susan Sarandon, Bette Midler, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Megan Mullaly. Jocelyn Moorhouse directs with a supporting cast including Bruce Greenwood, Timothy V. Murphy, and Michael Bolton (!).
From Book Club and its recent sequel to Queen Bees and 80 for Brady, this sub genre continues to expand. The first Club and Brady both managed to exceed expectations at the box office, but Four faces a significant challenge. Distributor Bleecker Street is not known for opening their pictures to impressive grosses.
I have yet to see a screen count for this, but recent Bleecker releases like What Happens Later with Meg Ryan and Ezra with Robert De Niro rolled out between 1300-1500 venues. Their respective starts were $1.5 million and $1.2 million. Assuming Four hits about the same number, I’ll project similar results. In fact, I’ll give it exactly what Later managed.
The Fabulous Four opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million
For my Deadpool & Wolverine prediction, click here:
No, Skywalkers: A Love Story is not a movie that advances the in hindsight uncomfortable smooch between Luke (Mark Hamill) and Leia (Carrie Fisher) in The Empire Strikes Back. Instead this documentary, which premiered on Netflix over the weekend, covers a Russian daredevil couple and their exploits atop a skyscraper. Jeff Zimbalist (whose 2005 environmental doc Favela Rising was shortlisted for Best Feature in its genre at the Oscars) and Maria Bukhonina co-direct. The pic originally premiered at Sundance back in January.
The Tomato meter currently sits at 73%. That mixed reaction is unlikely to put it in contention with the Academy. I didn’t have Skywalkers listed in my 10 possibilities for Doc Feature in my initial projections last weekend and wouldn’t count on it climbing up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On July 26th, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman are back in their signature roles and for the first time together in the aptly titled Deadpool & Wolverine. The superhero mashup is the 34th title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second sequel to 2016’s smash Deadpool. Shawn Levy directs with a supporting cast including Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, Brianna Hildebrand, Karan Soni, Shioli Kutsana, Lewis Tan, Aaron Stanford, Tyler Mane, Jon Favreau (back as Happy Hogan), and apparently Jennifer Garner reprising her Elektra role.
This pairing has long been looked at as the likely contender for summer 2024’s biggest blockbuster. That’s a position that might be unattainable domestically due to the Inside Out 2 phenomenon. However, it is expected to achieve the highest premiere of the season and the year.
Jackman hasn’t donned the claws since 2017’s Logan and that return helps feed the buzz. This should have no trouble giving Wolverine his largest start which is currently held by 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 million).
The same logic applies to Mr. Pool. The original made $132 million out of the gate and $363 million overall eight years ago. 2018’s follow-up took in $125 million with $318 million total stateside.
Tracking has this at around $165 million, but I’ll uptick it closer to $180 million. My exact call gives it the 16th strongest opening ever between Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Beauty and the Beast.
Deadpool & Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $176.1 million
Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:
My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.
The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.
That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $72.3 million
2. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (July 12-14)
Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.
Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.
Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.
Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.
In what has become a tradition on the blog, it is time to revisit the cinematic season that transpired ten years ago. In 2014, that meant the warmer months were ruled by a ragtag group of relatively unknown Marvel superheroes (at least compared to your Spideys, Batmen, and Supermen, etc…).
Audiences might have been hooked on the feelings these MCU characters gave them, but they were also transfixed by apes, giant lizards, and pizza chomping turtles.
Let’s take a trip down a decade old memory lane with the top 10 domestic earners of summer ’14 as well as other noteworthy pics and significant flops.
10. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Domestic Gross: $177 million
While the DreamWorks Animation sequel couldn’t match or exceed the gross of its 2010 predecessor at $217 million, the fantasy tale won the Golden Globe for its genre and was Oscar nominated for Animated Feature. A sequel would follow five years later.
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Domestic Gross: $191 million
With Michael Bay producing and Megan Fox starring, the transformation of this franchise from the 1990s to the 21st century was a financial if not critical success. A sequel which made less cash came two summers later.
8. 22 Jump Street
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill’s second go-round as hapless cops (this time graduating to going undercover at college instead of high school) outpaced the 2012 original financially. A third Street never arrived (there was a rumored crossover with the Men in Black series), but Tatum has recently spoken of his desire to get the ball rolling.
7. Godzilla
Domestic Gross: $200 million
It might be the 30th overall feature in the Godzilla franchise, but this monster mash from Gareth Edwards achieved some of the series’ best reviews and kicked off the MonsterVerse that is still wreaking havoc at multiplexes. It also assisted in washing away dirty memories of Roland Emmerich’s 1998 summertime treatment with Matthew Broderick
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $202 million
While it made over $200 million domestic, Andrew Garfield’s return to the Spidey suit was seen as underwhelming with critics and audiences. Planned sequels didn’t materialize though Garfield and head villain Jamie Foxx would reprise their roles in 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home.
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $208 million
The follow-up to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Matt Reeves took over directorial duties. The result was critical acclaim as Dawn became the long running franchise’s largest grosser. Two sequels (including Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in May) have followed.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This sequel combined cast members from the 2000-06 trilogy including Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, Ian McKellen’s Magneto, Patrick Stewart’s Professor X, and Halle Berry’s Storm with some of their younger counterparts from 2011’s X-Men: First Class like Michael Fassbender’s Magneto and James McAvoy’s Professor X (as well as Jennifer Lawrence’s Mystique). The result is the highest earning pic with X-Men in the title. With the exception of the Deadpool success that followed two years later, direct sequels Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix failed to replicate the success here.
3. Maleficent
Domestic Gross: $241 million
After the massively profitable live-action remake of their animated Alice in Wonderland four years earlier, Disney continued the trend with Maleficent. Angelina Jolie starred as the Sleeping Beauty villainess and a 2019 sequel earned less than half of the total of this domestically.
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Domestic Gross: $245 million
Shia LaBeouf exited Michael Bay’s robotic mayhem and Mark Wahlberg entered this fourth entry. A billion in receipts worldwide resulted in making this 2014’s best worldwide grosser. Sequels are still coming and the latest Transformers: Rise of the Beasts hit a lower $157 million last year.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This was the 10th feature in the MCU and it seemed like the first that could be a financial question mark. The heroes weren’t as familiar to audiences, but James Gunn’s tale of eccentric comic characters took by the box office by storm. Two sequels have followed in addition to Guardians appearances in other MCU sagas.
And now let’s cover some other flicks from ’14 that had crowds and critics chatting.
Neighbors
Domestic Gross: $150 million
The comedic teaming of Seth Rogen and Zac Efron caused this fraternal experience to be the season’s most fruitful original comedy. A less regarded sequel came two years later.
Lucy
Domestic Gross: $126 million
Two summers after The Avengers set records, Scarlett Johansson had a solid sci-fi action grosser with Luc Besson’s concoction.
The Fault in Our Stars
Domestic Gross: $124 million
John Green’s phenomenon of a YA romance bestseller became a blockbuster with decent reviews highlighting the chemistry of leads Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort.
Edge of Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Doug Liman’s sci-fi actioner with elements of Groundhog Day was not a sizable hit upon release. However, the Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt led title’s reputation has grown since with occasional rumors of another Tomorrow.
Let’s Be Cops
Domestic Gross: $82 million
This buddy cop pic was an out of nowhere late season surprise with over $100 million globally against a meager $17 million budget. Unlike nearly all other movies I’ve spoken of above, a sequel (somehow) did not happen.
Chef
Domestic Gross: $31 million
After helming two ginormous Iron Man chapters and a disappointment with Cowboys and Aliens, Jon Favreau cooked up critical cred and impressive midsize numbers with this road dramedy.
Boyhood
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Shot over a span of a decade, Richard Linklater’s unique coming-of-age drama remains the best reviewed picture of the 21st century according to Metacritic. Six Oscar nods, including a Supporting Actress victory for Patricia Arquette, were among its many plaudits.
Snowpiercer
Domestic Gross: $4 million
Bong Joon-Ho, who would make the BP winning Parasite five years later, garnered acclaim for this post-apocalyptic pic that would eventually spawn a TV series.
OK, so not all 2014 summer sagas were prosperous and here’s some that were considered commercial and/or critical disappointments.
Hercules
Domestic Gross: $72 million
Brett Ratner’s version of the Greek god wreaking havoc on his enemies cast Dwayne Johnson in the lead. The grosses were actually fairly decent, but I’m sure the studio were hoping for nine figures stateside… and does anyone even mention this movie anymore?
Jersey Boys
Domestic Gross: $47 million
The original play earned Tonys but audiences mostly tuned out Clint Eastwood’s take on the decades spanning musical drama.
Blended
Domestic Gross: $46 million
The Wedding Singer and 50 First Dates were each lucrative rom coms with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The third time was not the charm with moviegoers or reviewers.
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane ruled the comedic box office in summer 2012 with Ted. This follow-up starring him and Charlize Theron didn’t hit the bullseye.
The Expendables 3
Predicted Gross: $39 million
The previous two action headliners with Stallone, Schwarzenegger, Statham, and Snipes and others did well. For inexplicable reasons, a PG-13 rating was slapped on this third one and audiences turned their nose up for what they wanted to be R-rated violence. A fourth (and also unsuccessful) pic came out last year.
Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $38 million
Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz couldn’t cause people to cue up this raunchy comedy which played to mostly empty establishments.
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Domestic Gross: $13 million
The first Sin City in 2005 made nearly $30 million in its first weekend while this sequel grossed less than half that figure total. The comic book adaptation co-directed by Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller might stand as the biggest flop of the season.
And that’s your recap, folks! Hope you enjoyed this walk down memory lane and I’ll have a post about summer 2015 up in the summer of 2025!
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