Oscar Predictions: Maria

Pablo Larraín’s latest biopic about an iconic woman facing tragic circumstances has hit the Venice circuit with Telluride to follow this weekend. Maria casts Angelina Jolie as renowned opera singer Maria Callas. Set during her final days, it completes a thematic trilogy from Larraín preceded by 2016’s Jackie and 2021’s Spencer. Costars include Valeria Golino, Haluk Bilginer, and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Netflix picked up distribution rights on the eve of its premiere and it is expected to stream by year’s end.

It’s been some time since Jolie had a role expected to garner awards attention. 25 years ago, she won Best Supporting Actress for Girl, Interrupted. Her other nomination, in lead Actress, came for 2008’s Changeling. Her director for Maria has an impressive track record with leading performer nominations. Natalie Portman’s work as Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis in Jackie made the final five eight years ago and she ultimately fell short to Emma Stone (La La Land). As Princess Diana in Spencer, Kristen Stewart was up in Actress with Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) taking gold. Stewart’s nod marked Spencer‘s only nomination while Jackie contended in Costume Design and Original Score. Note that neither received noms in Picture, Director, or for their screenplays.

Early word-of-mouth from Italy indicates that Maria might be the weakest of the three films (the RT score is currently 72%). Jolie is mostly receiving kudos and Netflix is likely to mount a serious campaign. Down the line tech mentions for Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Cinematography are feasible. However, I do wonder if the somewhat lackluster write-ups could mean Jolie is the only possibility. I’ve had Golino listed toward the bottom of other possibilities in Supporting Actress, but her role is apparently just one scene. You can expect to see her drop out in my next predictions post.

I’ve had Jolie parked in second place (behind Amy Adams in Nightbitch) for weeks in Actress. She still may be in the top 5 when I update on Monday and I suspect she will. Will she stay in second place? I’m more unsure of that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Woman of the Hour

Anna Kendrick, a Supporting Actress nominee for 2009’s Up in the Air, makes her directorial debut with Woman of the Hour. The late 70s set crime thriller tells the true life tale of a struggling actress (played by Kendrick) who appears on The Dating Game and ends up selecting serial killer Rodney Alcala (Daniel Zovatto). Costars include Tony Hale and Nicolette Robinson.

Hour first drew eyeballs nearly a year ago at the Toronto Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% with critics calling it an assured debut from the Pitch Perfect performer. Reviews are also praising Zovatto’s performance. Netflix quickly snatched up the rights and they’ve taken their time picking their own date. It finally streams beginning October 18th.

Despite high marks, Netflix should have their hands full with other campaigns including Emilia Pérez, The Piano Lesson, and Maria. This is unlikely to be a priority. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Universal Language

Our neighbor to the north had a solid run in the International Feature Film at the Oscars for the front half century of this 21st century. Not so much in the second. In 2003, The Barbarian Invasions was Canada’s first and thus far only winner in the race. A nomination followed three years later for Water. From 2010-12, they went three for three in the quintet of hopefuls with Incendies, Monsieur Lazhar, and War Witch. Since then, the nation has not been represented in IFF’s final five.

Universal Language was initially unveiled at Cannes in early summer. From director Matthew Rankin, the absurdist comedy stars Rojina Esmaeili, Saba Vahedyousefi, Soban Javadi, and Pirouz Nemati. Canada announced this week that it’s their latest at bat for Academy consideration.

The pic definitely has its ardent admirers and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Canadians will probably need to campaign hard for it to make the cut. They’ve not even made the shortlist since 2016. However, the strong reviews should mean this is their best chance in some time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

It was surprising when the Venice organizers announced that Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (out September 6th) would open their film festival which kicked off today. The long-in-development sequel (as in 36 years) brings Tim Burton back in the director’s chair with Michael Keaton reprising his iconic role as the ghost with the most. Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara return with Jenna Ortega (who stars in Netflix’s Wednesday from Burton), Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, and Willem Dafoe entering the macabre universe.

Projections have Beetlejuice squared circling big numbers at the box office. The Italian premiere announcement has prognosticators pondering the awards viability. The 1988 original earned a sole Oscar nod and it won Best Makeup (before it was Makeup and Hairstyling), beating out a worthy competitor in Coming to America.

Most of the reviews for the follow-up are in the plus column with 21 out of the current 27 sporting red on Rotten Tomatoes. Many are saying it’s a welcome return to form for Burton. It could certainly land another Makeup mention though defeating Dune: Part Two won’t be an easy chore. I wouldn’t totally rule out Production Design or Visual Effects as possibilities.

Anything beyond that is unlikely as the same probably holds true for its Golden Globes chances in Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue with frequency now that Venice is underway…

August 30-September 2 Box Office Predictions

Sci-fi horror pic AfrAId and political biopic Reagan are two newcomers working hard to attract viewers over Labor Day weekend, but it should be holdovers shining atop the box office hill. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Over the four-day frame, I don’t believe either fresh flick will manage to hit double digits. As an aside, there are other newbies out like 1992 with Tyrese Gibson and the late Ray Liotta and Slingshot with Casey Affleck and Laurence Fishburne. There’s also the family sports tale You Gotta Believe. I didn’t do individual write-ups on this trio as I have a tough time envisioning any of them approaching the top five (or top 8 for that matter). If any of them have a shot of surprising, maybe Believe does but I wouldn’t count on it.

AfrAId from Blumhouse should be the best performer of the debuts. That still could mean only high single digits for a third place showing at best or fourth or fifth.

How Reagan rolls out is a big question mark. With Dennis Quaid as the 40th POTUS, it might over perform if conservatives come out in force. I’m skeptical and my mid single digits take puts it outside the high five.

The seasonal leftovers usually have small percentage drops over this holiday frame from Friday to Monday. I would anticipate that Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, and It Ends with Us will maintain spots 1-3. Faith-based drama The Forge nabbed an A+ Cinemascore this past weekend and should hold steady (same goes for Blink Twice). That could mean both earn more than Reagan.

Here’s how I have it shaking out and we’ll do a top 8 forecast as the summer season closes out. These are Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. AfrAId

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

6. Blink Twice

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. The Forge

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

8. Reagan

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 23-25)

Deadpool & Wolverine clawed its way back to the #1 slot after a week away. The MCU behemoth took in $18.3 million in its fifth week, in range with my $19.2 million prediction. It is up to $577 million total.

Alien: Romulus slid precipitously to second in its sophomore outing. Down 61%, the gross was $16.3 million (a bit under my $17.8 million call) for $72 million thus far.

It Ends with Us stayed in third with $11.6 million, a tad shy of my $13.4 million projection. The three-week haul is $120 million.

A trio of newcomers generally underwhelmed. Blink Twice fared best in fourth at $7.3 million. That doesn’t match my $8.5 million estimate though it’s an OK result considering the reported $20 million price tag.

The Forge was fifth at $6.6 million and that’s on target with my $7.1 million prediction. As mentioned, it should hold well considering the Cinemascore grade.

Finally, The Crow didn’t fly with viewers. The reboot tanked in 8th place with just $4.6 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Reagan Box Office Prediction

As the nation is focused on who will be the 47th President of the United States, distributor ShowBiz Direct hopes moviegoers watch a biopic about the 40th over Labor Day weekend. Sean McNamara directs Reagan with Dennis Quaid in the title role and Penelope Ann Miller as First Lady Nancy. Costars include Nick Searcy, Robert Davi, Lesley-Anne Down, C. Thomas Howell, Kevin Dillon, Mena Suvari, and Jon Voight. Heck, we even have Creed frontman Scott Stapp as Frank Sinatra (?!?).

Political pics fave challenges breaking through at the box office. I’m not sure audiences will greet this with arms wide open. Shot in late 2020, it has taken some time to find its way to the big screen. Reagan is catering to a conservative audience as evidenced by the politics of some of the cast.

Perhaps older viewers will turn out, but I’m skeptical the MAGA crowd shows up in force. With the caveat that this could outperform, I’ll say mid to maybe higher single digits is where this lands over the four-day holiday.

Reagan opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my AfrAId prediction, click here:

Strange Darling Review

Comparisons to Quentin Tarantino are inevitable after viewing JT Mollner’s alternately sun drenched and dingy chase flick Strange Darling. The narrative time shifts and sudden explosive instances of violence are unquestionably reminiscent of that filmmaker. So are the quick and quirky interludes that interrupt them. It is shot (in stunning 35 mm by Giovanni Ribisi!) in a grindhouse fashion that Tarantino adores considering he made a 2007 homage to that genre. Keeping it solely on the QT, however, doesn’t give Darling its flowers. This is a striking achievement on its own much like QT’s works elevate beyond their inspirations.

A matter-of-fact narration from Jason Patric informs us that what we are about to see documents the last crimes of a serial killer. Our witnessing of such acts transpires over six chapters and not in sequential order. It does begin with a planned one night stand at a drab inn between The Lady (Willa Fitzgerald) and The Demon (Kyle Gallner). Over cigarettes and liquor and perhaps stronger substances, that initial patter is interrupted with visions of what’s to come. It involves more rustic settings and tension beyond “will they or won’t they” when parked at the motel lot.

Now is an opportune time to reveal that I can’t reveal much of what comes next. Everything after chapter 1 veers off in directions best left discovered outside of this post. I will say that Strange‘s twists are genuinely unexpected curveballs and happen with frequence. They are anchored by a great score (from Craig DeLeon), the aforementioned Ribisi shooting, and two terrific performances from Fitzgerald and Gallner.

Gender dynamics are a heavy theme as the nameless courtship of its leads is splayed out. Their relationship status complicates our preconceived notions of how these nights and mornings usually end. Fitzgerald might have the more challenging role, but Gallner is also called upon to react to ever changing scenarios involving shifting emotions. They both make us believe this light and dark world they’re inhabiting and Fitzgerald gets a lengthy one-take that is to die for.

I mentioned the quick and quirky interludes earlier. There’s no better example than a hippie couple played by Barbara Hershey and Ed Begley Jr. that become part of the demented date. Right before they join this cat and mouse game, they are far more concerned with concocting a comically gigantic breakfast. The plot gets in their way of consuming it. In Strange Darling, we get to dig in and it’s savagely delicious.

***1/2 (out of four)

Blink Twice Review

Zoë Kravitz’s directorial career opens up nicely enough with Blink Twice that it feels whiny to gripe on the negatives. It takes a while to find its destination. Perhaps the “eat the rich” genre is getting overdone considering The Menu, Triangle of Sadness, Saltburn, and HBO’s The White Lotus. There’s still enough to savor in this assured debut from the actress of many franchises including X-Men, Mad Max, Divergent, and The Batman.

That starts with an entrancing cast led by Naomi Ackie’s Frida. She’s a cocktail waitress whose employment at swanky benefits puts her in the airspace of vapid and vaping billionaire Slater (Channing Tatum). Frida is familiar with him as we witness her scroll through Instagram where he’s making an indistinct apology for some past transgression. If he’s canceled, no one’s informed various hangers on in his orbit. A sudden burst of confidence and then klutziness from Frida creates a Meet Cute where Slater invites her and her coworker/roommate Jess (Alia Shawkat) to his private island.

An entourage is in tow including private chef Cody (Simon Rex), business partner and Polaroid documenter Vic (Christian Slater), young Lucas (Levon Hawke) and Tom (Haley Joel Osment) whose primary character trait is wearing sunglasses and being under the influence. The boys are joined by influencer and reality star Sarah (Adria Arjona) and Camilla (Liz Caribel) and Heather (Trew Mullens). The latter two share Tom’s generally hazy ways. Sarah seems to be in a competition for Slater’s attention with Frida even though she’s seemingly paired up with Cody. Geena Davis joins the proceedings as Slater’s organized but off-kilter assistant.

With their phones confiscated, the vacation with an indeterminate end date starts with picture perfect scenery, amazing food that Cody snootily describes, and copious dollops of designer drugs. Sure there’s venomous vipers on the grounds, but the servants seem to be handling them. Increasingly there’s periods of lost time that Frida and eventually Sarah and especially Jess begin to notice. And why is there dirt under Frida’s animal adorned fingernails each morning? What’s with random bruises showing up on people that they can’t recall?

The eventual truths are as disturbing as the real life stories of plutocrats with their own islets. The screenplay from Kravitz and E.T. Feigenbaum doesn’t shy away from entering dark and disturbing places. This is after a fairly lengthy windup that risks lulling the audience into complacency (perhaps on purpose). The cast helps guide us through the earlier days becoming a blur. No one seems to have a grasp on whether it’s Monday, Saturday, or whether they’ve been there a week or three.

Ackie and Arjona’s performances are the worthiest of attention. Best known as Whitney Houston in the biopic I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Ackie goes from infatuated server to victim of horrifying acts to unexpected statuses that I won’t spoil. That’s a tricky balancing act and she certainly manages it. Arjona is perhaps the most impressive in a role that seems one-note at first (the jilted woman) and becomes anything but. With this and her starring turn in Hit Man from a few months back, she’s having a fantastic cinematic year.

Blink Twice might be familiar territory as of late, but Kravitz’s take made me not wanna look away. It’s worth taking the trip with these literal and figurative snakes in the grass and those that serve them until the power dynamic shifts.

*** (out of four)

Would The Supremes Have Gotten Oscar Love?

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat hopes to find love from home viewers in its Hulu debut this weekend. The fact that it’s not in theaters came as an unexpected announcement from Searchlight Pictures (under the Disney umbrella) a few weeks back. Based on a 2013 novel from Edward Kelsey Moore, the decades spanning drama features Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Sanaa Lathan, and Uzo Aduba as lifelong friends. Costars include Mekhi Phifer, Julian McMahon, Vondie Curtis-Hall, and Russell Hornsby. Tina Mabry directs.

On paper, The Supremes looks like the type of crowdpleaser that might have appealed to awards voters. However, Searchlight went the streaming route. The strategy makes more sense as of the past few days. Earl’s sports a so-so 68% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Critics are kind to the performances of Ellis-Taylor (a Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard in 2021), Lathan, and Aduba (Emmy winner for Orange is the New Black).

Yet the reviews likely would have prevented this from generating much Oscar chatter. Searchlight also has other contenders that they’ll focus on. This includes the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, Nightbitch with a potential Academy bait turn from Amy Adams, and A Real Pain which has already received Supporting Actor talk for Kieran Culkin.

If anyone had a shot from Supremes, it would be Ellis-Taylor. She would appear to have another bite at the apple with the upcoming Nickel Boys (also based on a bestseller) in the supporting field. As I always say, my Oscar Prediction posts will continue. They will not continue with this picture, per Searchlight.

AfrAId Box Office Prediction

Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.

At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.

AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.

AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)

For my Reagan prediction, click here: